Gambling Willie’s Horse Racing and Betting Blog

Understanding Jockey Moves When Handicapping Horse Races
By Bill Peterson

One of the hardest things to figure out when you are handicapping a horse race is what the change of jockey means. Understanding jockey moves will help you to win more bets and lose less money at the races. For instance, the rider who rode the 3 in its last race is now on the 5 and the jockey who rode the 7 declines the ride so there is now a new one on the 7 and he got off the 8 and… well you get the idea. There are times when the riders stay on their mounts and you can handicap the race, but there are also times when all the rider switching will make your head swim.

Before you make a bet you want to know why these riders switched their mounts. Rider changes are usually due to the jockey, or jockey’s agent, making the change. If a trainer can get a good jock on his or her horse, they aren’t likely to make a switch, most of the time. So you can usually figure that if a horse pilot is making a switch, he or she figures to have a better chance of winning the race, or future races on that horse.

Probably the easiest switch to understand and handicap is the switch from one horse to another horse who looks better on paper. It seems quite obvious that the jockey thinks he or she will have a better chance of winning since he or she won or came close last time out with that mount.

But appearances can often be deceiving and the reason may be murkier. When a rider gets on a mount he or she may not plan on winning that race but realizes as the regular rider of the horse he or she may win several races in the future. It doesn’t happen often, but sometimes a rider will get off a horse that is in better form at the moment to get on a horse with more potential for the future.

Then there is the case where the trainer does decide that a different rider would be better suited to the horse. This is like trying to match up couples. Some jockeys are known for being better with younger horses, or hustling them out of the gate faster. Some jockeys are known for being able to rate on the front and getting the most from a front runner while there are others who specialize in closers. Knowing something about the strengths and weaknesses of the jockeys at your favorite track(s) can help a lot.

Some programs and data services now show a breakdown of which categories jockeys win in, They show how well each one fared on maidens, grass races, routes, sprints, etc. When reading them, bear in mind that it depends a lot upon how good the horses were that the jockey was riding. It may appear that a rider is great on the grass compared to the others, when in reality he or she just happened to catch a few very good turf runners.

The final bit of wisdom for picking winners and making bets is to be aware of their strengths, but like everything else in handicapping horse races, be prepared for changes. There are no absolutes and just because a rider is known for being good with maidens, it doesn’t mean he or she will win with that maiden today. The most important factor is still the horse itself and how fit and ready it is for the contest it is about to run.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Understanding-Jockey-Moves-When-Handicapping-Horse-Races&id=1387699

By Bill Peterson

There is an old saying that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. That is certainly true at the horse races where a little knowledge can cause you to make some costly betting mistakes. Probably knowing that favorites win about a third of the races has cost many people dearly and made some false favorites.

The problem is that the public’s choice isn’t always the same. The chalk, as it is sometimes called, does win about a third of the races and completes the exacta roughly half the time, but that means it does so in all the races. That statistic doesn’t show how many win in races with short fields or how many win at 5-2 odds as opposed to 3-5 odds. If you break it down, the stats reveal that the favorite is not as likely to win in a field of 10 horses as it is in a 6 horse race.

Furthermore, the chalk isn’t as likely to win at 5-2 as it is at 3-5. Yet many people scan the toteboard and see a favorite in a race and go and bet it or use it in exotic betting and expect it to win about one race out of three. That is a recipe for financial disaster. Playing the public choice is a losing proposition over the long haul though you may experience brief times of being ahead.

If you are betting based solely on the odds without any further handicapping, consider the following;

Here are some things to avoid when playing favorites…

1. Don’t play favorites in races with fields of more than 7 horses. As field size increases, your favorite’s chances decrease exponentially

2. Don’t Bottom wheel favorites in exactas. They win roughly a third of their races and finish in the exacta about 50% of the time. That means they actually place only about once out of 6 races.

3. Don’t bet the chalk across the board. While the win bet is a losing proposition place and show are even worse because of the hidden cost of breakage (discussed in other articles I’ve written).

4. Don’t use progressive betting to try to make up for your losses when chalks fail. Some people think that there is a law of averages that if a favorite fails a certain number of times it is bound to win because of the “law of averages.” There is no law of averages and even if there was, who would enforce it?

If you must play the toteboard, then look for value in the pools by doing a little math such as the method in True Handicapping for finding live horses or even the old standby of Z betting, made popular by Dr. Ziemba many years ago.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Avoid-These-4-Betting-Mistakes-When-Playing-Favorites-at-the-Horse-Races&id=1386264

By Bill Peterson

Now that we have seen poly tracks installed at many race tracks in the United States and Canada, the betting public seems to have gotten as big a break as the horses who run on them. The poly tracks seem to offer a more cushioned surface for the animals and that is good news. It reduces the strain on their fragile legs and reduces injuries.

Reducing injuries is good news for everyone involved in the industry, not just the horses. While many of us were raised on dirt races run on natural surfaces, and tradition notwithstanding, I think most of us would like to see more tracks install a synthetic surface.

Handicapping horse races on the man made surfaces also seems to eliminate the problem of tracks, though a wet poly track really doesn’t seem to play exactly like a dry one. Now here is a question for you handicappers who spend hours handicapping races. How many times have you spent a lot of time deciphering a race that was to be run on the grass, only to have it switched to the dirt track because of rain?

Many people really love to watch the animals run on grass, it seems so natural and less stressful than pounding along on a hard dirt surface, but when the grass gets too wet and slippery, the races are shifted to the dirt track which may be muddy, unless it’s a synthetic surface, of course.

If they can make a synthetic dirt surface and race on it in all kinds of weather, is there an equivalent for turf races? Though it may not be the real thing, if it was safer for the horses and jockeys and kept the races on the same track for us handicappers, it would be a good thing.

As horse racing continues to evolve and change with the times, it seems that it is only a matter of time before synthetic turf replaces real grass.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Synthetic-Horse-Race-Tracks,-Will-They-Replace-Turf-With-Astro-Turf&id=1386270

If you’re as tired of the status quo as I am in the political scene, Paris Hilton may just be the best choice for President.  I’ll admit that I was kind of hoping that Hillary would get the nomination, but she didn’t so it looks like intelligent women are not going to be on the menu. Not that Paris, in her own way, isn’t smart.  She looks pretty darned hot in that bikini when she does the video rebuttal to the comments by McCain’s latest stooge. (Where do these people get off comparing Paris Hilton to anyone as an example of someone we would expect to not have a clue about an important issue?)  What is this, bash Obama and Paris and get two for one?

The key to the upcoming presidential election seems to be change, not unlike every other presdential election in the history of this country.  Same old rhetoric about changing or not changing the direction this country is going in, blah, blah, blah, I’m just so sick of that crap.  Are you?  What do they ever change?  Not much.

Following American politics is getting to be like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  You know what’s going to happen, but you, the voter, really are powerless to change anything.  Sooner or later you realize, it isn’t your country, you just live here. We get two choices and neither one is very appealing in this old horseplayers opinion, and I’ve been handicapping elections and horse races longer than I care to mention.  Hell, I still can’t believe Dewey didn’t make it (no wise guys and girls, he was not one of Donald Duck’s nephews!)

Paris Hilton may not be a rocket scientist, but do we really need a super smart person in office this time around?  OOps sounds like I’m leaning towards McCain, doesn’t it?  Well I’m not.  I am voting for Paris and I urge all you to write in a ballot for Paris Hilton the next President of the United States, and I might add, the sexiest, too.

Now Paris suggested that she might pick Briana for a running mate (whoever she is, sorry I don’t follow these things as closely as I should) but I think that would be a mistake.  I think that Hillary Rodham Clinton is the obvious choice for Vice president of the United States.  First of all, if they appear together in public, Hil will make Paris look even better.  Secondly, associating with an intelligent, ambitious, civic-minded woman wouldn’t hurt Paris Hilton’s somewhat tarnished public image.  Finally, for those moments when Paris’s, shall we say, “blondeness,” causes a slight problem, Hillary could step in and take control.

Before they get elected, presidential hopefuls always tell us how they are going to fix the country and of all the great things they will do.  After they get elected they tell us why the president can’t fix everything in the country and how it is really up to us.  In other words, not much will change.  Ater he is elected, Barack Obama will tell us why we have to allow offshore drilling so Exxon can rape and pillage a little more and squeeze a few billion more out of the environment.  He’ll also explain why we can’t just “pull out,” of Iraq.  We’re already hearing this from McSame so basically we would be getting the same thing.  So what it really comes down to is this, the biggest issue in the presidential race, as I see it, is who do you want to look at for the next four years?  Well, duh, Paris wins hands down.  Hell, she’s going to be in the news all the time anyway for being rich and blonde so we may as well elect her and give her one more reason to be a media star.

As I see it, Paris Hilton and Hillary Clinton would be the dream team.  The perfect combination of experience (I mean Hillary’s), looks, brains (you know), and charm (both).  I’m sure either of them could charm most of the world’s leaders.  Yes, as a team I can’t think of any other two women who could beat Paris and Hillary, can you?  

By Bill Peterson

One of the advantages of going to a race track and watching live races is that you get to watch the horses being saddled and to observe them for a while before they run. The second best alternative, of course, is to watch them on a television monitor at an OTB, racebook, or some other venue. Of course, with horse racing now shown on television in the United States and still broadcast on the air in other countries, it is now possible to sit in your own home and watch them run.

Horseracing handicapping can now be done from home, but don’t lose sight of the fact that being at the races and seeing the animals live is still the best. The reason for that is that these living creatures react to their environment and feelings so that the effect of their surroundings and their mood will have an impact on the race results. Observing them before they race is just another tool to add to your handicapping bag of tricks.

I have seen horses literally do a back flip in the paddock and still go out and win a race just minutes later, but that is a rare occurrence. It is much more likely that if an animal is that agitated, or frightened before a race, it isn’t going to perform well. The same can be said of horses that break through the gate and have to be caught and led back and reloaded. They rarely win.

Horses that are all lathered up often break on top and set fast early fractions in a race, but rarely finish well. Learning to observe horses and making a few notes about their condition before a race can really help you to avoid bad bets and to find some really good bets at the horse races.

The ears of a horse can even indicate if it is paying attention to the jockey and trying to please or if it is nervous or distracted. Your job as a handicapper is to figure out what the signs say about the animal and wager accordingly. There are many ways to gamble in this world but one of the fun things about betting on horseracing is that you get to see beautiful live animals and to observe them and to note each one’s unique character and personality. For some of us, that is half the fun.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Horse-Racing-Handicapping-by-Sight-Reveals-Nervous-Horses-and-Bad-Bets&id=1360493

By Bill Peterson

Knowing trainer moves is important if you want to make a consistent profit. That means focusing on one track or circuit and getting totally familiar with the trainers and how they progress their horses from races for conditioning and workouts to races for paychecks and wins.

First of all, forget about playing a bunch of tracks all over the country day after day and making a profit. That isn’t real handicapping, it is gambling. If you want to gamble, go ahead and do that, but don’t for a moment think that you are going to keep making money that way.

Handicapping for a living is brutal and requires you to focus and become an expert on the track and circuit you are playing. That means knowing the trainers and how they train their horses. Each trainer has his or her own way of taking a horse and conditioning it and getting it to progress forward.

Some trainers use races to condition a horse and others use works, while some use a combination. When you see a particular trainer’s horse in a race you should know how much the jockey is going to push the horse to win and whether he or she is just out to condition the horse or win. How many horses who are not meant to win can you afford to bet on and still show a profit?

One way to know how ready a horse is and whether the trainer will be trying to win with the horse, to “Send it,” as they say, is to look at the hidden fractions in the horses last two races. You must combine this with how the trainer trains his or her horses to know whether the horse is well meant or just out for exercise.

After the first quarter fraction of the race look at the next fractions and determine if the horse made a big middle move. If the horse made a big middle move in one race and showed big early or late speed in the other of the two previous races that may well mean the trainer is testing the horse to see if it is ready to win. Those moves are classic examples of how trainers will build bottom, or endurance in their horses as well as testing them to know if they have what it takes to win at the level they are competing at.

If you see a race pattern like the one described and then see a drop in class, the next thing to do is to check the scoreboard. There are ways to compare pools to figure out if the horse is being bet by inside money. Some of the inside moves are described at True Handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Horse-Racing-Handicapping-Secrets-of-Hidden-Fractions-and-Trainer-Moves&id=941723

By Bill Peterson

You’ve probably heard this said before, “These horses have raced so many times against each other, it’s just a matter of whose turn it is to win. They just take turns.”

On any racing circuit there are certain horses who always seem to wind up in the same races. Usually this occurs with claimers or cheap handicap races. First one horse from the group will win and then another one of the horses will win and it really does seem like the trainers are taking turns, but that usually isn’t the case. What is actually happening is that the horses are so evenly matched that a minor advantage is all it takes for one of them to win.

Many times in these races, the favorite fails. That is good news for an astute handicapper, but before we get too excited about the possibility of winning, let’s be honest with ourselves. This is one of the toughest races to handicap because they have all shown that they are capable at this level.

Another problem is that we can’t read their minds to know which one is feeling its best and which one will get a good break, etc. So how do you handicap this race? First of all, there are many times when you should pass a race like this because it really is too close to call. On the other hand, look for value. If a horse has won at this level against this group, why can’t it do it again? If the odds are right, go for it.

The truth is that the trainers and other insiders often don’t have a clue as to which horse will win a race like that, but put their horse in because they know that given a break or in the right circumstances, their horse can win.

Learn more about the truth of how insider’s use this knowledge at True Handicapping and learn how to spot a horse that will pay well and surprise a lot of other handicappers.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Horse-Racing-Secrets-for-Handicapping-Races-With-Horses-That-Have-Competed-Against-Each-Other&id=932500

By Bill Peterson

Most people who are involved in horse racing handicapping understand that workouts or works, as they are sometimes called, are mostly just exercise, but there are some special cases where a work can be very significant.

The clockers who time the works and sometimes comment on them will often let you know if a high profile jockey exercised a particular horse. If a leading jockey takes the time to work a horse, he or she may be doing a trainer a favor to try the horse and offer advice about a training decision. At other times, the jock may be deciding if the horse is worth a ride in a race, though that decision is usually made by the jockey’s agent.

Another thing that may be going on is that the jockey may be familiarizing him or herself with the animal to make sure that when race day comes they will be a winning team. When you read the clocker’s comments, and you really should, for each track you play, make special note of any horse that got a ride from a jockey.

Then take a look at the horse’s past performances, trainer, and any other comment’s the clocker has made. Your job is to play detective and figure out what is going on with the horse. I can guarantee you that most people who bet on the horse’s next race won’t have done that. That extra bit of thought can result in you knowing more than the crowd and in handicapping, that is known as having the edge and that, my friends, is how you beat this game.

You will know more about that horse than the crowd so you will be like an insider. To learn more about getting inside information without becoming an owner check out True Handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Horse-Racing-Handicapping—When-Workouts,-Sometimes-Called-Works,-Are-More-Than-Just-Exercise&id=930234

By Bill Peterson

Despite the fact that many people rely heavily upon works to handicap horse races, most people don’t really know how race horses are clocked. It is a group effort and there is very little attention given to whether a work is handily or handy or breezing. Yet many people involved in horse racing handicapping will look at one or the other and claim that it is significant that the ‘H” or “B” tag was given.

Typically, a group of clockers will stand in the clocker’s booth and watch the track as the horses are let onto the track. A gap man or woman has watched the horses enter the track through the gate or “gap” in the fence and calls the names of horses and trainers up to the tag man. The tag man calls out the names and a clocker will volunteer to watch that particular horse. After the horse works the clocker will call out the name of the horse and the time.

The tag man writes it down and the other clockers make a note. Some of the clockers work for publications, private syndicates, and other interests. The private syndicates and other interests are looking for gold in the form of a horse that is showing a big improvement or is fit and ready. There is a lot of chaos and shouting that goes on because trainers rush to get their horses worked during the two times in the morning that the race track allows them to work their horses. There is precious little time for a clocker and tag man to note if a horse breezed or worked handily so most tag men will just write handily for most works. The other alternative is a “?”.

The important thing is the times themselves when compared to the other works and the clocker’s comments. When a horse looks so good that a comment is actually entered or the horse, that is a time to sit up and pay attention, but don’t get too hung up over whether it was a “B” work or an “H” work. Reading clocker’s comments and workout times are the closest most people ever come to getting real good inside information. If you want to learn how to use inside information and find horses that are fit and ready go to True Handicapping. Learn how to find real inside information that 99% of the crowd misses and start reading the comments for free inside information and tips.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth about workouts and inside information.

Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Workout-Labels-Such-As-Handily-or-Breezing-Arent-Reliable-Indicators,-But-Workout-Times-Are&id=923408

By Bill Peterson

As we all know, race horses are athletes and must train and workout just like any other athletes. Clockers watch them work and report on how fast they worked, how hard they were pushed, and sometimes make other comments.

Works are also listed in the past performances and online at many race track’s websites. Yet works are often one of the most misunderstood or little used pieces of information available to handicappers who are handicapping horse racing. Part of the reason is that the works themselves seem to offer few clues to which horse is the fastest or in the best condition. The reason for that is that most handicappers just look at the works and don’t combine them with other bits of information.

Unless you play spot plays (bets based on single piece of information or situation) then you are looking at several factors to make your handicapping decisions. How well you combine factors and compare them determines how well you get a true picture of the runners and can estimate their real chances of winning.

How often do you print out or write down several factors from the past performances and then hold them up side by side and really compare them? If you do that, how good is your method of comparing them?

For instance, when you are comparing works, and one horse has a 36B and another has a 35H, do you know what that means? It isn’t just about the actual times. It is also about how well one horse did when it was pushed to work harder than it wanted to naturally work (B). What you should be asking yourself is why did that trainer breeze that horse while the other worked his or her horse just handily. Looking at the rest of the factors in your past performances might give a clue especially with a good way to compare them like Ladder Handicapping.

Putting the pieces of the puzzle together is important otherwise your handicapping will not reach the level of the small percentage of players who regularly make a profit at the races.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson
http://EzineArticles.com/?Which-Horse-Racing-Works-Are-Better-for-Predicting-Winners,-Breezing-or-Handily?&id=927740