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By Bill Peterson
As we all know, race horses are athletes and must train and workout just like any other athletes. Clockers watch them work and report on how fast they worked, how hard they were pushed, and sometimes make other comments.
Works are also listed in the past performances and online at many race track’s websites. Yet works are often one of the most misunderstood or little used pieces of information available to handicappers who are handicapping horse racing. Part of the reason is that the works themselves seem to offer few clues to which horse is the fastest or in the best condition. The reason for that is that most handicappers just look at the works and don’t combine them with other bits of information.
Unless you play spot plays (bets based on single piece of information or situation) then you are looking at several factors to make your handicapping decisions. How well you combine factors and compare them determines how well you get a true picture of the runners and can estimate their real chances of winning.
How often do you print out or write down several factors from the past performances and then hold them up side by side and really compare them? If you do that, how good is your method of comparing them?
For instance, when you are comparing works, and one horse has a 36B and another has a 35H, do you know what that means? It isn’t just about the actual times. It is also about how well one horse did when it was pushed to work harder than it wanted to naturally work (B). What you should be asking yourself is why did that trainer breeze that horse while the other worked his or her horse just handily. Looking at the rest of the factors in your past performances might give a clue especially with a good way to compare them like Ladder Handicapping.
Putting the pieces of the puzzle together is important otherwise your handicapping will not reach the level of the small percentage of players who regularly make a profit at the races.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.
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By Bill Peterson
Here is a little known secret about gambling that every beginner should learn and never lose sight of. The worst hand in Texas Holdem Poker, statistically speaking, is the off suited 2 and 7. Here is another secret you should learn and never lose sight of, more money is lost on supposedly good hands than on the 2-7 off suit.
Think about that for a minute and ask yourself this question, “Since everybody knows the off suited 2-7 is the worse hand and very few people ever play it, how much is lost with that hand and how much more is lost with seemingly good hands?” If you learn to lay down a hand when it is going to cost you money you turn a loser into a winner because you have just developed discipline. The pros survive in tournaments because they know when to lay a hand down.
That shows how the difference between what is statistically bad and what is realistically bad are two very different things. Beginners quickly learn what the worse hand in poker is and lay it down, but then get a better hand statistically and refuse to lay it down even when all the signs indicate that they should. That is why I always say, “The off-suited 2-7 is the second worse hand in Texas Holdem Poker.”
The worse hand is any hand you hold onto and play to the bitter end and lose your chips and possibly your seat with. Starting to understand what I am saying? If you are going to be a good poker player you need to play the cards and the other players. Learn the statistics and you are part way to your goal of being a good player. Learn a little psychology and a lot of good old fashioned poker and you will be a good poker player.
If you are a beginner and want to start learning how to determine the strength of a hand, a good way to know if you should even open is to use the power of 19 as taught in Power Point Poker. No one can master the game quickly. It will take you a long time to master it, but think of all the fun you will have along the way. On the other hand, losing is not fun so master some simple techniques that will put you head and shoulders above many other players and practice, practice, practice.
Bill Peterson has been a professional horse player and card player for years. His innovative techniques were developed by thinking outside the box. In his own words, the result of “A life well wasted.” Bill has been teaching the basics of gambling for years and you can read about Bill’s Power Point Poker at Power Point Poker and all of Bill’s horseracing handicapping methods at The Handicapping Store.
“No one can make you a winner but learning the basics and a few little known secrets and techniques can advance you closer to your dream of making a profit at your favorite game. Use my methods and customize them to suit your own style and you will be ahead of 99% of the crowd.”
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By Bill Peterson
If you are just learning how to play Texas Holdem Poker you may be confused by several aspects of the game. At first it seems diabolically simple. But the more you play, the more you realize how complicated it can be.
One of the biggest problems is learning what to open on and when to fold. The problem is that sometimes you have to fold on a hand that you know is statistically a good hand, but because of the other players moves, may be seeming to be a bit vulnerable.
The biggest single mistake that most beginning holdem poker players make is staying on a hand too long. Though pocket rockets may be the best hand in holdem, there are times when you even have to lay them down and concede the pot to someone else rather than get burned. Here is the first thing you should know. “There is more money lost on good hands than bad hands.”
You won’t be tempted to stay too long on a bad hand, but if you have a high pair or some other seemingly good hand, you may stay in the pot long after all indications were that it was time to get out. Worried that the other person is bluffing and feeling bad about laying down a good hand? Ask yourself these important questions, how did the other players in the pot enter, with a bang or a whimper? Is someone slow playing you? How many outs and possible combinations are there on the flop that make a hand that could beat yours?
Are you playing “pot odds’? Pot odds is a simple way to measure risk as opposed to possible return. If you don’t have much in the pot and there is only one possible hand that can beat you, then it may be worth it to hang in there, but if there are several combinations that can beat you and several players hanging in there, it may well be time to lay those cards down.
Another consideration is position, which in Texas Holdem Poker, is critical. If you are the first to bid, then you are in a bad spot and the other players may just be playing you.
A good way to determine if you should even open is to use the power of 19 as taught in Power Point Poker. No one can master the game over night. It takes thousands of hands before you can call yourself a journeyman poker player and thousands of games before you will be ready to call yourself a pro, but learning the basics and developing the strength to lay down a good hand that will cost you money is a good start towards becoming a great poker player.
Bill Peterson has been a professional horse player and card player for years. His innovative techniques were developed by thinking outside the box. In his own words, the result of “A life well wasted.” Bill has been teaching the basics of gambling for years and you can read about Bill’s Power Point Poker at Power Point Poker and all of Bill’s horseracing handicapping methods at The Handicapping Store.
“No one can make you a winner but learning the basics and a few little known secrets and techniques can advance you closer to your dream of making a profit at your favorite game. Use my methods and customize them to suit your own style and you will be ahead of 99% of the crowd.”
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By Bill Peterson
Here is the next in the series of what I call my golden rules in horseracing handicapping or how to pick winners without losing your shirt or your mind. That may sound a bit ominous, but let’s face it, this game can drive you crazy unless you set a few simple rules for yourself.
Of course money management is one of the top priorities in anything we do in life that requires an outlay and risk. But nowhere in life is the need for money management more important than in gambling, even recreational gambling. Some people who make a living trying to teach other people how to handicap horse races would have you believe that betting on horses is an investment, not a gamble. I say it is an investment with a lot of risk, therefore a gamble.
It is speculation and speculation involves risk. We do our best to limit the risk and hedge our bets, but in a free market like horse racing, we compete against other people and though you may be pretty sharp and good at finding value plays, there are a lot of sharp tacks in the box and they are doing the same thing. What that means is that in order to profit from this business or game, you need to take a chance. That is gambling.
So managing your money is a key factor in staying in the game long enough to learn the game and make a profit. I say, handicap aggressively and wager cautiously. Go for value and take the risk but do so with an amount of money that isn’t going to crush you no matter how great the return may appear to be.
Set loss limits and stick to them and keep track of how your bets and decisions are doing and also the fluctuations in your bankroll based on your decisions and the races and other factors in your play. One good way to do that is with a visual system such as Ladder Handicapping
If you can quickly look at the bets you have made and the changes in your bankroll by holding two ladders side by side it illustrates the strengths and weaknesses in your play and helps you to make changes that will improve your winning percentage and lessen the strain on your bankroll. For instance, after 100 bets you have four ladders that show four different kinds of bets you have made and the dates you made them. You also have a ladder that shows the changes in your bankroll. By comparing each bet ladder to your bankroll ladder you realize that two of the bet categories show more profit but grater losing streaks, too, while the other two show one winner that has a high strike rate and small fluctuations in your bankroll and one loser. You drop the losing category from your betting strategy and increase your bets with the high strike rate bets. You drop the amounts on the other two categories just in case the losing streaks get a little longer and threaten your bankroll all together.
As a result your ROI goes up and there is less wear and tear on your nerves. All because you have observed Rule Number Three Make a Money Management Plan and Stick to it.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store
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By Bill Peterson
Usually when you think of taking care of the details in life it means that life is more complicated. But in horse racing Handicapping, taking care of the details and leaving the big factors alone may actually reduce stress.
Everyone will watch the big factors like class and speed when it comes to handicapping the race and the tote board will accurately reflect which horses have the edge in those well known categories. Your job as a handicapper is to find a way to get an edge over the competition. Sometimes that means finding a niche that has been overlooked by the crowd.
With all the scrutiny on the usual handicapping factors, you aren’t going to find anything the crowd overlooked in the usual categories. But finding a seemingly minor detail that might make the critical difference is a good way to spot a good value play. For instance, let’s say a certain horse that shoed back class and did well at a higher level has been running poorly of late. The horse’s form fell off about the same time that the horse started sporting front wraps, a sign that there was a problem with lameness or soreness in the horse’s forelegs.
You have been watching the track lately and notice that it is deeper and softer than usual lately. There seems to be no value on the board because all the horse’s in the race appear to be an open book. Accordingly, the crowd has placed fair odds on the runners based on their class, speed, form, connections.
You don’t have to butt your head against the crowd trying to figure out a slight edge in value. The best play of the day may be the horse with the front wraps because today it will find a more comfortable track to run on and may show an improvement in form. That is a minor detail that the crowd has overlooked and that you can use to your advantage. It isn’t always the big factors that make the difference in making a profit at the track. Sometimes it is the little detail that leads to a big profit. A few insiders at the track will spot those details and make a profit on them day after day while public handicappers and 99% of the crowd look at all the usual things. You could almost call this inside information except for the fact that it was there in front of you and everyone else, but because you started looking at the details you found it and cashed in on it. This is the kind of inside information such as you find in True Handicapping that can make a big difference in your handicapping success and lowering your stress and making big profits.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.
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By Bill Peterson
Each person must find his or her own way to handicap races and then make a decision as to which horses offer the best value on the odds board. Some people prefer exotic bets while others stick to straight bets like win, place, and show. No one can tell you which bet type is best for you. The truth may be that you become a situational bettor looking for value in more than one pool.
But whatever method you choose for picking your bets, one thing holds true. Determining which horses have the best chance of hitting the winner’s circle will depend upon three top factors. There is just no getting around the big three.
Number one is speed. “Fast horses win races and royal flushes beat aces,” a line in a popular John Pryne song is true. Looking at the speed figures for the last three races in a horse’s career and comparing those figures to the other horses in the race will give you a pretty good idea of how well the horse will fare. Naturally the horse with the highest figures doesn’t always win, but the horse with the lowest figures seldom wins. If you are betting to win then you want a horse who figures in the top of the speed figs race.
Number Two is pace. Speed alone does not win races. A horse with high speed figures can get beaten if it locks up in a killer speed duel on the front end while a more even runner sets a realistic pace behind the front runners and picks up the pieces coming down the stretch. Another situation that can stop a speedy type is track condition and type. For instance, a horse that likes a hard fast track gets on a deep track that is still listed as fast. The horse is bet according to its performances on a hard and fast track and runs out of gas coming down the stretch. The problem was that it tired badly because it was racing on a deep surface that favored a plodder.
Number three is connections. I want to see a top jockey on my horse or one who is consistent and though he or she may not be at the top of the win stats, can still win races with a good horse beneath him or her. I also want a good trainer who has experience at that track and has shown he or she can win at that level of competition. A lousy or inexperienced trainer can lose races by messing around with a horse when the horse is fine and ready to win. The smart trainers get them ready and then let them win. The other trainers try to make them win. There is a big difference.
So those are the three most important factors in handicapping races. No matter what your style or what pools you choose to play, you will have to master those three areas and understand them to make money at handicapping. The next important consideration is inside information such as you find in True Handicapping. Put the top factors together with inside information and your ROI will soar.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.
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By Bill Peterson
Finding the fit and ready horse and picking winners is the hard part in horse racing handicapping. One of the best clues to a horses fitness is a good recent work. Good works show a horse that is capable of maintaining a good pace for 3 or more furlongs.
But good works alone aren’t enough. You must also look beyond the works to know what the trainer intends with a horse. For instance, say a trainer has just claimed a horse and then got a good work from the horse, does this mean that the next race will be a winning effort?
Better check twice because that might not be the trainer’s style. Many trainers and their barns bet their horses. If you have a horse that just showed it was fit and ready you might be tempted to hold the horse back and get second place money and wheel it in the trifecta in second place, not to mention betting it heavily in the place pools.
Don’t think that happens? Next time you spot a horse that was recently claimed and had a good work, watch the action in the place and show pools. You might be surprised to find the horse is taking more than its share of the action there. So one of the points about workouts that shouldn’t be overlooked is that they often point to a useful horse that can be placed strategically to make a big hit. The beauty of it is, this can be done several times and when the crowd stops betting it to win, figuring it can’t do better than second, the barn bets it to win.
This is just one of many inside angles I’ve learned over the years. To learn more inside angles go to True Handicapping.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.
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By Bill Peterson
There is a lot of confusion regarding horse racing handicapping and how to use handily works and breezing works.
First, let’s set the record straight. A handily or in hand work means the horse was going easily and didn’t need much urging. A horse that works handily or in hand is one that is full of run and wants to run. A horse that is breezing is being urged to move faster by the rider. Of the two workouts, the H is more impressive because it usually means a horse is full of run.
But before you go betting every horse that shows an H work, be careful. Most clockers give the H work tag to most works. Only when there is a good reason to note a horse was really being pushed or there was some other factor, do clockers give the B tag. You will notice on a workout report for most tracks the clocker has given the H tag to most works.
The interesting thing to note is that while it may first appear to be a bad sign if a horse has to be “ridden” to get a good work out of it, that may not be the case at all. Maybe the trainer told the rider to ride it hard just to see what the horse really has. It isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially if the horse responds well. It is just a way of seeing what the horse has. Pay attention to B works and you may find one that is much faster than the rest. That is a very good sign. That is the kind of inside information that people pay money for.
One thing that many people don’t know is that not all clockers work for the Daily Racing Form or the track. Some work for private interests that pay these expert horse watchers to clock workouts and report back to them. They are always on the lookout to spot a rider riding a horse hard and to see what it can do.
Don’t pay much attention the H or B tag unless it is a standout workout as is explained in True Handicapping. Workouts are the most underutilized source of good inside information in horse racing handicapping.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.
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By Bill Peterson
One of the most overlooked and misunderstood aspects of picking winners in horseracing handicapping is simply called sight handicapping. Sight handicapping is simply looking at the horses and making a judgment based on the looks of each runner.
I’ve picked some nice winners this way and have also saved myself a small fortune over the years by being aware of horses that showed warning signs of being in poor physical condition. First of all, there are some good tapes and books written on the subject. Bonnie Leadbetter did an excellent tape and there are some good books, too. Unless you are an expert horseman or horsewoman, I’d advise you to get some of those reference materials and study them. Not only is it profitable because you will understand the animals and be able to spot horses that are far superior to the competition, but it is also just plain fun to watch these beautiful animals and to understand them even more.
When I bet on a horse there are a few things I look for in the walking ring or saddling area. The first place I start with a horse is to look at its coat. I want to see a shiny coat of hair and just beneath the skin I want to see dappling. A horse with a shiny healthy coat and dappling is a horse that is fit. Another thing I look for is how the horse carries his or her head. Lameness shows up when a horse is walking and you can see that in how it bobs its head. If it bobs too mauch and seems to arry its head to low or too high, it can be a sign of a horse that is trying to compensate by shifting weight off its front or rear legs by how it holds its head.
Of course you should also look at the hoofs, legs, and shins. Are the hooves cracked or split? Is it wearing front wraps? Is there any trace of a medication on the shins that would indicate it has been blistered to relieve a shin splint? These are all important clues that a horse is not ready to give its best effort.
Once out on the track look for a horse that warms up well, moving easily and showing some spring in its strides. A horse that is literally on its toes is one that is ready to give a good effort. Some horses will rock like a rocking horse in the post parade and seem to be more animated than the rest. A flat footed horse that plods along is usually not a good bet unless that is its nature. Most horses will show their energy level and gameness with a spirited stride.
Watch the tote board and see how they are bet. There are many insiders at the track that know how to spot a good one. If you think you’ve spotted one, confirm it on the tote board. For more good insider information go to True Handicapping
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store
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By Bill Peterson
The best way to find a winner at the race track is just wait until the race is over and look at the tote board.
The second best way is to work hard as a handicapper and handicap horse races and pay special attention to all the little details that most people over look. When it comes to horseracing handicapping the most overlooked information is the tote board and the works. The reason is quite simple, people don’t know how to use the information from either of those two sources to find winners.
The key to workouts is that there is more than meets the eye. The secret to using works effectively is to look for patterns and trainer moves and make comparisons. On top of all that you must also combine workouts with other factors. Works alone won’t point out many winners but when used with trainer moves and other information they can be a gold mine. Here is just one example. In maiden races a lone fast work is impressive, but a series of works that are about equally spaced and show steady improvement are much more impressive. Next, if you know how the trainer works and that the trainer brings his young horses along slowly and steadily, you will know that the horse is progressing nicely even though the times of those works may not be impressive compared to other works shown but runners in the same race.
One horse who is also competing in the race may have a bullet work, but that doesn’t mean it is a better bet. How does that trainer work his or her maidens? Does the trainer burn them up in the morning only to fail with them in the afternoon? There are some pretty high profile trainers who do poorly with maidens because they try to bring along a green horse as though it is a seasoned racer. That just doesn’t work with many young horses. So while their horses may show a fast work in the morning, they often fall apart in a race only to be beaten by a horse with a much better “bottom” in it and the confidence and patience that many well timed works can build.
So it isn’t enough to just watch workout times, but coupled with other inside information, workouts can really make a horse stand out even if the works themselves aren’t impressive at first glance. That is why the insider’s often bet a horse and you are scratching your head wondering why. It takes inside information like True Handicapping, to really beat the races.
For that reason I always say, watch the secrets of the tote board and learn how each trainer uses works to spot good bets at good odds.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store
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