By Bill Peterson

If you play exotic bets like exactas, quinellas, trifectas, and superfectas, then you probably have realized that just figuring out who is going to in the race is not enough. Wheeling one horse in an exotic bet is an expensive proposition. In order to be cost effective and profitable, you need to narrow your exotic bets down.

The way most people do this is to try to figure out which horse is likely to win and then which horse is second most likely to win, etc. The process is finding probably winners and rating each one’s chances and then using the second most likely horse in second and perhaps the third most likely as well.

But here is a news flash, the horse that is second most likely to win is not necessarily the most likely horse to place. If you want to successfully play exotics, you need to be able to figure out tiers and use them to structure cost effective wagers. Tiers are the parts of a wager or race result that reflects the fact that horses run at different levels and are likely to finish in a certain order.

There are some horses that will often place, but seldom win when faced with a level of competition or a certain age group of horses. Remember, horses are herd animals and have a herd mentality. Despite the jockey’s urging some horses will settle into the herd and run in a certain position, therefore, they are likely to finish in a certain position.

Look at the stats for the horses on your program and you may notice certain horses that have a running style and favored position in the herd. For instance, there are a lot of horses that will come from well off the pace to finish second or third most of the time, but who rarely win. That isn’t by chance, but rather by design. That is where that horse wants to be and expects to be.

That horse has quite a bit of ability and manages to place itself there time after time, often beating out what the bettors thought was a pretty good win bet. The bettors may have thought another horse had a good chance to win the race, but may not have been the best of the field, but they still bet it as the second favorite. They passed over the horse that often finishes second or third because they figured it didn’t have what it takes to win.

They were right about that. The second placer doesn’t have what it takes to win and rarely does, but it has what it takes to beat out more favorable looking horses for second or third. Just as there are race models for winners, there are race models for place horses and show horses. You may know how horses run who win races at your favorite track, but do you know the model for place and show? If not, you may be throwing money away on exotic bets that include too many secondary runners because you don’t know which ones to eliminate.

A good way to train yourself to fill profitable exotic bets is to practice identifying good place and show bets. When you do this, and stop looking for winners, you’ll find that there are races run within races for different positions in the herd. While jockeys do their best to overcome this tendency of some horses to favor a position in the herd, the nature of the horses often wins out and the horse who want to run just off the leader toward the end of the race will often do just that.

Learn to spot those horses and play them in the second and third spot. Don’t put a horse in the third or second spot just because it is almost as good as the one you think has the best chance to win, because that is what the crowd will do and those payoffs will be over played and therefore, not profitable. Put the horse in that spot who truly belongs in that spot and you’ll cash nice mutuels and understand the true nature of horse racing and horses much better.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

One thing that really bothers me, as an old horse man, is to see a horse I’ve backed get into a pulling match with the jockey early in a horse race. Sometimes a horse will be so head strong that the rider has to pull the reins and wrestle the animal. What happens is that the horse burns itself out or loses interest in winning and the result is a lot of useless tickets. Well, maybe not completely useless, because you’re not going to forget the horse are you?

When you see that happen, don’t be too hard on the jockey. It probably wasn’t his or her fault and if he or she fought the horse, it is okay. It is called in-race training. That horse needs to learn to obey the jockey. Race horses are hot blooded powerful animals and all that hundred pound jockey has for control are the reins, bit, and whip. Sometimes a horse will pull that stunt even though it hasn’t done it before.

One thing I’ve learned about horses is that you never have them completely figured out and you better be ready for the occasional surprise. Like all living creatures they are affected by many things so you never know when something might set them off. Some times, one that displays that headstrong behavior, is just feeling really strong and frisky and wants to run as fast as he or she can. They don’t know or care how much money is bet on them, they just run because they want to please the jockey and it feels good.

But if you lose money on that horse, don’t think the race was a total loss. Watch how the jockey handles the situation and see what the horse does. It may lose the race but it may also learn to obey the jockey better as well. If, by the end of the race, the horse has settled down and the jockey is urging it on, that is a good sign. It may lose by 20 lengths, but if the jockey doesn’t let it quit and keeps it moving, that means the horse is learning that if it acts up at the start of the race it will still have to run the whole race and will be expected to race hard in the stretch.

A few taps of the whip, throwing the reins, and other forms of encouragement by the rider means that runner won’t forget that he or she is going to have to finish races. Most horses will learn from the experience and run a much better race the next time out. On the other hand, there are a few exceptions to the rule. I once owned a filly that just couldn’t learn the lesson and she was finally retired to be a brood mare. If the jockey stays on and the horse looks competitive if you throw out the one bad race, it may be a very good bet.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

The way that you progress as a horse racing handicapper is by keeping good accurate notes that you can refer to when you want to check your progress and avoid making the same mistakes. But keeping notes is not that simple for some people and being organized in your thinking is an absolute must when picking winners.

First you must identify key handicapping factors that you want to follow. If you want to become a master at using speed figures to pick winners, then you must keep track of the speed figures that you used to make decisions about bets. If you want to use pace as a handicapping figure that you use to rate the competitors, then you must note how you thought a race would shape up and then you must watch the race and see how closely you were able to call the position of each horse during the race.

Here is what you are actually trying to accomplish when you are using your own notes to become a better handicapper.

1. Learn how each horse’s projected figure, whether pace, speed, class, will affect its ability to compete.

2. Learn how important the spread is when comparing those figures in each class of race.

3. Learn how to exploit the differences and the crowd’s opinion of those factors to find good value bets.

Here is what each of those points really means.

1. Once you decide which factor(s) you want to rate, the next job is to write them down for each race you handicap. Then, watch the race and note how each horse performed. After a while you may start to notice a pattern. You will also start to have a valid opinion based on watching numerous races with horses that showed that figure. For instance, let’s saying you are watching claiming races for older horses at 6 furlongs at your favorite track. You start to notice that a horse with a superior early pace figure is usually within a few lengths of the leader or wins the race. Now, each time you see a horse like that, you know it must be considered a contender or an exotic play.

2. If you are following the three major factors, speed, class, pace, and notice that one is not really much of a determining factor, that is important, especially when we get to part three. During the second phase you are trying to determine how important a 3 tick advantage is in early speed or if horse’s dropping from 15k claimers to 10k claimers have a big advantage. In other words, you are seeing how much weight the spreads have and therefore how much each one should be used in your calculations.

3. This is where your note keeping should pay off. You have watched the factors you wanted to become expert at and have a good collection of notes. You have determines, for instance, that speed is only a good determining factor if a horse has at least a 5 point advantage in speed figures in its last three races. Yet you notice the crowd is betting a horse with only a 2 point advantage down to even money. You look at the other contenders and find a horse with good early speed and know that the advantage it has in early speed will make it competitive at the end and it is at 5-1 odds. You know from past experience that it is a good bet so you play it.

The reason the crowd didn’t know it is because most don’t keep notes and don’t understand how important the spread is in important handicapping figures. If you took a poll of the crowd they’d tell you the horse was the favorite because it had the best speed figure and that’s important. But you know from your notes, that while speed is important, it doesn’t matter much unless there is at least a 5 point spread. The crowd over estimates the horses advantage. That is how you find good value bets among the other contenders.

You won’t find a bet in every race this way and it will take work to do this. You have to keep well written notes and state why you liked a horse in a race and then see what happens and write that down. Then watch the race and look at your opinions at the end of the race to see how well they held up. That is how you will learn and that is how you will have an advantage over the crowd. The notes are feedback and without feedback you won’t improve.

You will find that most people learn almost everything they know about handicapping in the first 10 trips to the race track. After that they go over and over again and make the same mistakes over and over again and never progress beyond that point because they didn’t keep notes and have a hazy recollection of what works and why. Most people, truth be told, are just trying to get lucky at the horse races and everyone can’t be lucky. For the 9 out of 10 days when you’re not lucky, you better be good. Picking winners for profit takes skill and good horse racing handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Are superstitions based on facts and cold hard science or are they merely old wives tales? Do you have any superstitions about horse racing or betting on the horses? Do you think it is possible to jinx yourself? Here are a few observations.

I used to go to Hinsdale, a little dog track in New Hampshire where I would watch the simulcasts and bet on the ponies. Hinsdale was trying hard to attract customers and therefore started offering a free lunch on certain days. The food was pretty good, and who can argue with a fee meal at the track? But I noticed that every time I went and had the free meal, I would lose money so I quit getting the free grub and started winning again.

I have had other problems with freebies, too. I went to Tampa Bay Downs on Festival Day when they gave away free chairs. The racing was very good and I really like Tampa Bay Downs, but I lost my shirt that day and when I got home and sat in my chair the danged thing broke (hmmm, maybe too many of the free meals at Hinsdale put me over the weight limit for that chair). I had a good time, though and would highly recommend a trip to Tampa Bay Downs.

Another problem I have is finding money. Now you may think that finding money is a good thing, but every time it has happened to me, I’ve wound up losing money on the races. If there is one thing I hate it is seeing money lying on the ground as I am walking into the track. I am faced with the quandary of whether to pick it up and go home or ignore it and walk into the track.

Believe it or not, I’ve done both and the times I ignored it I still lost so there is only one alternative, pick it up and go home. If it is just a few bucks and I have worked hard at handicapping the races, I am getting precious little profit for my efforts. I’ve also tried being a good citizen and turning the money in at customer service. That’s risky though, because the last time I did it, the clerk almost fainted. I guess that doesn’t happen a lot. I’ve only done it twice but miraculously both times, someone claimed the money.

Therefore, when I walk into the track, I try not to look down at the ground and once inside the grandstand, I don’t look at the floor. I’ve taken a few tumbles over the years, but at least it keeps me from finding money. Hey, I go to the races to make money, but I don’t want it to be too easy.

I also hate it when I have bet on a horse and some big mouth in the crowd mouths it when it is winning. I wish I had a dollar for every time some idiot shouts, “He can’t lose now!” or, “They’ll never catch him!” Once those words are out there you just know what will happen. Well I do anyway. My horse suddenly develops house maids knee in the stretch, as P.G. Wodehouse once said, and I wind up being escorted out of the track by security after trying to strangle the self proclaimed prophet who jinxed my horse. When I am in a particularly mouthy crowd I sometimes put my hands over my ears so I don’t hear any predictions.

No, I’m not superstitious, I just don’t take any chances.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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I would like to thank each and every one of you for your continued support. The thousands of people who visit this site every month, despite my spotty record of publishing horse racing handicapping information, is a testimonial to how hard each of you works at this challenging sport of horse racing.

We all know how hard it is to make a profit and though we compete against each other in the pools, we do have a common bond.

So happy holidays to each one of you and I hope Santa or the Solstice Fairy, or whoever or whatever you believe in, leaves a few good long priced winners under your tree or at your door.

And remember, you are always welcome to contact me with questions or comments and will find many of the systems I use at williewins.homestead.com

Seasons Greetings,
Willie

By Bill Peterson

Are you still losing at the horse races even though you cash many tickets? Does it seem like you should be making money, but for some reason you come out of the race track with less money than you started with?

You’re not alone. Many people who are good at handicapping horse races are still losers.
There are several ways that you can tighten up your game, but first ask yourself this important question, “Do I really want to make a profit at horse racing handicapping?”

It isn’t such a silly question. Many people bet on horse races for reasons other than to make a profit, to make money. One reason people wager on horses is to have thrills. Another possible motivation is that they want to lose so they can commiserate with the other losers and feel like part of a group. I know it sounds strange, but why else would certain people go to the race track for years and lose money and then stand there and complain about it? For whatever personal reason there is in there psyche, they want to lose.

Once you’ve answered those questions and determined that you do, indeed want to win, then check these three keys to making a profit at the races…

1. Do you spend money on admission fees, parking, travel, food, drinks, programs that could be saved. Many people find that by cutting corners, packing a lunch, finding less expensive programs, etc, they actually start to make a profit. Investing in horse races is something like buying stocks. You can waste a lot of money on a high priced broker when all you need is a discount broker. Look for ways that you waste money at the races. For instance, that $3 beer every trip for 50 trips is $150. Paying $10 to go to the clubhouse when you could go to the $2 grandstand is another example.

2. Are you using a good money management system? Keeping track of your bets and wagering set amounts that are based on your bankroll is an absolute must. Betting $50 to win on one horse and then $200 on another when they each have an equal chance of winning is not good money management.

3. Do you set limits and stick with them? How much do you plan on winning or allowing yourself to lose before calling it a day. Good handicappers set win/loss limits and stick to them. How many times have you been ahead at some time during the day, but left the track a loser? Knowing what a reasonable amount of income from your bets is will help you to realize when you’ve had your share of winning or losing for the day, collaring greed or unbridled optimism is an absolute must to say ahead.

These are just three ways that some people blow their profits at the races. Make sure it doesn’t happen to you.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

When horse racing handicapping, many of us have a tendency to be very enthusiastic about our choices. We read the lines of a horse and decide it has an excellent chance of winning and will also go off at a good price. There’s nothing wrong with being excited about a bet, after all, it’s why we do this, other than the profit we manage to eke out.

It is one thing to be enthusiastic, however, it is a different matter to be careless or over zealous. One of the golden rules of making a living as a gambler, and in particular, a horse player, is that you have to care about each bet but not to the extent where you lose sight of your main objective or fall apart if it loses.

If you handicap a race and find what you think is an excellent prospect, there is the tendency to fall in love with the bet. That can be very dangerous to your bankroll. It will cloud your judgment. Another pitfall of handicapping is to get too emotional about your picks. Don’t take it personally when your horse loses or you have a bad day, it’s not the universe working against you, just the usual rhythm of winning and losing we all must endure.

When we get emotional and think a runner can’t lose, we may lose sight of the details and that can be disastrous. For instance, if you are so sure a horse is a guaranteed winner, you may miss the fact that it is wearing front wraps for the first time (a red flag). You may also miss the fact that it is sweating profusely and washed out, a very bad sign.

You may also not take the time to check the pools to make sure there is some inside money on your horse, or if you do and the answer is negative, you may still bet the horse because you are so sure it will win. These are all details but they are what mean the difference between a 10% profit, long range, or a loss until you get back on track, so to speak. Horseracing handicapping for profit is hard enough, but if you start overlooking the details, it is impossible. As always, you must use a systematic approach.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

The trifecta wheel is one of the most popular bets in horse racing handicapping. The lure of the bet is that you never know how much the trifecta will pay because you don’t know which other runners will complete the other two legs of the exotic wager. It seems so simple, just pick one good horse and wheel it and you may hit the whole trifecta.

While other serious handicappers pore over their programs trying to eliminate horses and develop complicated part key wheel bets, you simply pick one good horse and wheel it. Of course, upon closer inspection, there are some drawbacks to the wheel bet.

For once thing, it is costly. In a seven horse race a $1 wheel bet costs $30. In an 8 horse race the cost is $42. That is a lot for scratch for a risky trifecta bet. Let’s say you decide to have a nice relaxing day at the track and don’t want to work too hard at handicapping. You decide to simply go to the track and wheel the favorite in the tri in each race.

The average field size is eight horses so you are spending $42 per race. There are ten races on the card and the favorite wins 30% (about average for winning favorites) of the races. It is an average day and the favorite does indeed win 30% of the ten races, in other words, you hit three out of ten tris.

You spent $420 on your ten bets. Now ask yourself this, what does the average trifecta pay when the favorite wins? Not very much, right? The answer is simple, there are a lot of people who don’t want to work, or think too hard at the races. They want a nice easy day and they want to cash trifecta tickets. So many people wheel the favorites in the tris and the result is that they all lose in the long run.

It is almost impossible to make a profit when wheeling favorites in the trifecta. So the answer to the question, when does wheeling a horse in the trifecta make good handicapping sense, is certainly not when it’s the favorite!

On the other hand, since wheeling the favorite is such a popular bet, and therefore an underlay, wheeling any other horse with a reasonable chance of winning may be a good bet. My advice is to use a good method of eliminating horses who aren’t meant to win (such as a toteboard method that spots live horses) and then wheel one of the other contenders that is live on the board.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html – Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Did you ever consider betting on the jockeys instead of the horses? Some people have favorite jockeys or trainers and will just flat bet their favorite. If you do manage to make a profit betting like that, it will probably be a small profit. Here is an angle that is based on that idea, but goes a little farther to narrow it down to more advantageous circumstances.

If you go to a race track regularly or follow a few through simulcasts, you probably have some opinions about the jockeys. You may have some pretty strong opinions about which ones are good and which ones are bad. You may also know their strengths and weaknesses and have opinions about when to bet them.

Some race tracks or horse racing data services offer a breakdown of how each jockey fares in different kinds of races. While a jockey may appear to do very well in long turf races, he or she may not do nearly as well in sprints on the dirt. Some riders are good at getting a horse out of the gate quickly and hustling their mount to the front, while others do better coming from off the pace.

Using this data, it is possible to label a jockey just as they label the running styles of horses. For instance, if jockey A does well with early speed runners on the dirt, you may label him or her ESD. Keeping a list of jockeys with each one’s label will enable you to match up jockeys with horses and then to compare good matchups to the odds. You will be comparing the winning style of the jockey with the running style of the horse he or she is riding.

The angle here is to find value in your bets by identifying situations where a jockey will perform better with a horse than is expected because he or she has a runner that matches his or her style. To make this work I would suggest that we also need to find a race model that suits their style. If sprints for 3 year old fillies are usually won by early speedsters and jockey A is on a filly with early speed who is going off at generous odds, perhaps he or she is worth a bet.

The key here is to be able to determine what fair odds are for that runner based on the rider’s ability and then to compare the fair odds with the actual tote odds. It will require note keeping, but after a while you may be surprised to see patterns emerging and actually find some good bets.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html – Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Sight handicapping has its benefits and one of them is that it is based on the here and now rather than past performances. It can point out horses that are live, or in other words, meant to win. Picking winners can be made easier with a little educated observation before the race. One problem with handicapping races based on past performances is that horses are living and breathing animals whose physical conditions change constantly.

Therefore, while it is helpful to know what a runner was capable of in the recent past, it is more important to know what condition it is in on race day. Many people do not even watch the post parade or look at the horses before they bet on them. Others watch them in the post parade then return to their handicapping, socializing, or get in line to make a bet.

What they may be missing is a warm up that is significant. Not all horses are prepared for the race in the same way. Some are merely led around by the lead out’s pony and never allowed to really get moving. Others are released by the lead out at the jockey’s instruction and the horse is then warmed up more briskly.

There can be several reasons for this. First of all, if it is the first time the jockey has ridden the horse, he or she may want to get a feel for it and also build some kind of communication with it. Other horses, particularly older horses, may need to warm up to get stiff joints loosened, just as older people sometimes need a bit of walking or moving around to get limbered up.

Allowing a horse to breeze in the backstretch can also settle a horse down if it is getting too anxious waiting for the race.

Whenever I see a horse warming up in the backstretch, particularly a fast blow out type warmup, I consider it a good sign. It shows the jockey’s intent to try to get the most out of the runner in the upcoming race and also that he or she is tuning in to the horse to check it out before the gate opens. These are all positive signs and a fast warm up in the backstretch just prior to the race should be considered a positive indication. Keep track of horses that warm up in this way and refer to your notes and you will soon see that fast warmups equal horses that are meant to win.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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