By Bill Peterson

There is probably no greater thrill in horse racing handicapping than picking a long shot winner. Of course any kind of score is good and winning always beat losing, even with a chalk (favorite). But seeing the horses thundering down the stretch and watching your pick get across the finish line first and paying big prices is one of the biggest thrills in gambling.

That is why so many people play longshots and why you hear a lot of high pitched screaming when one wins. That person making all the noise has good reason to celebrate. For big profits you need big prices, especially if you aren’t making large bets. A ten dollar bet on a longshot may pay hundreds of dollars while a ten dollar bet on a favorite will pay much less.

One of the keys to picking longshot winners is to realize that it takes a different process and mindset to do it. Otherwise, finding a longshot winner would be as easy as any other handicapping and they would be bet down so they were no longer long priced horses. That would change everything. They win in spite of the fact that they do not have the same things going for them that other horses have.

Learning to spot the red flags that let you know a horse might win at a big price is how you will find some very profitable situations. Sometimes it is impossible to know that a horse is going to turn in a big performance, but not always.

The biggest win ticket I ever cashed was on a first time starter in a maiden race. It paid $130. The reason I bet on it was that the rest of the field looked so bad on paper and while I was watching the post parade, the first time starter looked so good. I also noted a progression of workouts that, though not particularly fast, showed steady improvement and were evenly spaced.

Another clue that the horse might have a chance to win was that a good jockey was in the saddle. A look at the trainer stats showed he did sometimes win with “firsters,” but wasn’t setting the world on fire with them. That showed the trainer could do it, if he had the right horse.

As I said, it isn’t like finding a favorite or low priced contender to bet on. You must look for clues that show a horse might have a dramatic change in form. It can be a rest, and equipment change, rider switch, even an outstanding workout, or a subtle combination of these things and other factors.

Longshots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill’s Longshot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com - Bill has been around Horse racing for 50 years and knows how to spot a good bet and loves to teach others. He is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore2.html -Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Sandy Ford-Graham

Now that some of the top sports books are offering US horse racing to their Euro markets and opening up international markets for racing from the States, it is a good time to look at some of the benefits for players outside the U.S.

Racing in the United States is different than racing in Europe and other parts of the world and therefore offers new opportunities and challenges. The opportunity for winning bets is good if you take advantage of some of the information that is available. For instance, the punters in the States have a much better source of data about the races and connections than people in some other countries have and therefore, you can find situations where a wager is very profitable.

Races are broken down into fractional times for each leg of a race. There is a time given for the quarter mile, half mile, and three quarter mile, as well as the top of the stretch and a final time. The position of each horse in the race can be determined and how far off the leader it was. This can be particularly handy in pace handicapping.

While the US races don’t offer as many betting schemes as UK bookies do, they still have many exotics like, bet 3’s, pick 4’s, pick 6’s, as well as daily doubles, rolling daily doubles (double bets on each race rather than just the first two races on the card), and of course trifectas and exactas. The straight bets play a little differently so you have to be aware of that before wagering.

When playing straight bets, be aware that place is only paid for a first or second place finish no matter how large the field is and that show is paid over the first three finishers. In the UK the place bets depend upon the size of the field, but not so across the pond.

Betting on U.S. based horseracing could be a big boon to the Sportsbooks when their players realize how much information is available to help them make their selections. The programs are extensive and the data services reasonably priced. The UK sports books that take bets on the US horse races are doing their part to help out by offering some tutorial information. Another good thing for UK based players is that the wagers are co-mingled with the pools at the U.S. tracks so you get the same odds that U.S. players get.

Check out Sandy’s Sports Betting Guide at http://www.blognow.com.au/sportsbettingguide/ and get the best deals and bonuses from the top sportsbooks. Learn how to be a smart bettor and win big with articles and helpful tips.

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By Bill Peterson

Knowing trainer moves is important if you want to make a consistent profit. That means focusing on one track or circuit and getting totally familiar with the trainers and how they progress their horses from races for conditioning and workouts to races for paychecks and wins.

First of all, forget about playing a bunch of tracks all over the country day after day and making a profit. That isn’t real handicapping, it is gambling. If you want to gamble, go ahead and do that, but don’t for a moment think that you are going to keep making money that way.

Handicapping for a living is brutal and requires you to focus and become an expert on the track and circuit you are playing. That means knowing the trainers and how they train their horses. Each trainer has his or her own way of taking a horse and conditioning it and getting it to progress forward.

Some trainers use races to condition a horse and others use works, while some use a combination. When you see a particular trainer’s horse in a race you should know how much the jockey is going to push the horse to win and whether he or she is just out to condition the horse or win. How many horses who are not meant to win can you afford to bet on and still show a profit?

One way to know how ready a horse is and whether the trainer will be trying to win with the horse, to “Send it,” as they say, is to look at the hidden fractions in the horses last two races. You must combine this with how the trainer trains his or her horses to know whether the horse is well meant or just out for exercise.

After the first quarter fraction of the race look at the next fractions and determine if the horse made a big middle move. If the horse made a big middle move in one race and showed big early or late speed in the other of the two previous races that may well mean the trainer is testing the horse to see if it is ready to win. Those moves are classic examples of how trainers will build bottom, or endurance in their horses as well as testing them to know if they have what it takes to win at the level they are competing at.

If you see a race pattern like the one described and then see a drop in class, the next thing to do is to check the scoreboard. There are ways to compare pools to figure out if the horse is being bet by inside money. Some of the inside moves are described at True Handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Here is the next in the series of what I call my golden rules in horseracing handicapping or how to pick winners without losing your shirt or your mind. That may sound a bit ominous, but let’s face it, this game can drive you crazy unless you set a few simple rules for yourself.

Of course money management is one of the top priorities in anything we do in life that requires an outlay and risk. But nowhere in life is the need for money management more important than in gambling, even recreational gambling. Some people who make a living trying to teach other people how to handicap horse races would have you believe that betting on horses is an investment, not a gamble. I say it is an investment with a lot of risk, therefore a gamble.

It is speculation and speculation involves risk. We do our best to limit the risk and hedge our bets, but in a free market like horse racing, we compete against other people and though you may be pretty sharp and good at finding value plays, there are a lot of sharp tacks in the box and they are doing the same thing. What that means is that in order to profit from this business or game, you need to take a chance. That is gambling.

So managing your money is a key factor in staying in the game long enough to learn the game and make a profit. I say, handicap aggressively and wager cautiously. Go for value and take the risk but do so with an amount of money that isn’t going to crush you no matter how great the return may appear to be.

Set loss limits and stick to them and keep track of how your bets and decisions are doing and also the fluctuations in your bankroll based on your decisions and the races and other factors in your play. One good way to do that is with a visual system such as Ladder Handicapping

If you can quickly look at the bets you have made and the changes in your bankroll by holding two ladders side by side it illustrates the strengths and weaknesses in your play and helps you to make changes that will improve your winning percentage and lessen the strain on your bankroll. For instance, after 100 bets you have four ladders that show four different kinds of bets you have made and the dates you made them. You also have a ladder that shows the changes in your bankroll. By comparing each bet ladder to your bankroll ladder you realize that two of the bet categories show more profit but grater losing streaks, too, while the other two show one winner that has a high strike rate and small fluctuations in your bankroll and one loser. You drop the losing category from your betting strategy and increase your bets with the high strike rate bets. You drop the amounts on the other two categories just in case the losing streaks get a little longer and threaten your bankroll all together.

As a result your ROI goes up and there is less wear and tear on your nerves. All because you have observed Rule Number Three Make a Money Management Plan and Stick to it.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store

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By Bill Peterson

Usually when you think of taking care of the details in life it means that life is more complicated. But in horse racing Handicapping, taking care of the details and leaving the big factors alone may actually reduce stress.

Everyone will watch the big factors like class and speed when it comes to handicapping the race and the tote board will accurately reflect which horses have the edge in those well known categories. Your job as a handicapper is to find a way to get an edge over the competition. Sometimes that means finding a niche that has been overlooked by the crowd.

With all the scrutiny on the usual handicapping factors, you aren’t going to find anything the crowd overlooked in the usual categories. But finding a seemingly minor detail that might make the critical difference is a good way to spot a good value play. For instance, let’s say a certain horse that shoed back class and did well at a higher level has been running poorly of late. The horse’s form fell off about the same time that the horse started sporting front wraps, a sign that there was a problem with lameness or soreness in the horse’s forelegs.

You have been watching the track lately and notice that it is deeper and softer than usual lately. There seems to be no value on the board because all the horse’s in the race appear to be an open book. Accordingly, the crowd has placed fair odds on the runners based on their class, speed, form, connections.

You don’t have to butt your head against the crowd trying to figure out a slight edge in value. The best play of the day may be the horse with the front wraps because today it will find a more comfortable track to run on and may show an improvement in form. That is a minor detail that the crowd has overlooked and that you can use to your advantage. It isn’t always the big factors that make the difference in making a profit at the track. Sometimes it is the little detail that leads to a big profit. A few insiders at the track will spot those details and make a profit on them day after day while public handicappers and 99% of the crowd look at all the usual things. You could almost call this inside information except for the fact that it was there in front of you and everyone else, but because you started looking at the details you found it and cashed in on it. This is the kind of inside information such as you find in True Handicapping that can make a big difference in your handicapping success and lowering your stress and making big profits.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Each person must find his or her own way to handicap races and then make a decision as to which horses offer the best value on the odds board. Some people prefer exotic bets while others stick to straight bets like win, place, and show. No one can tell you which bet type is best for you. The truth may be that you become a situational bettor looking for value in more than one pool.

But whatever method you choose for picking your bets, one thing holds true. Determining which horses have the best chance of hitting the winner’s circle will depend upon three top factors. There is just no getting around the big three.

Number one is speed. “Fast horses win races and royal flushes beat aces,” a line in a popular John Pryne song is true. Looking at the speed figures for the last three races in a horse’s career and comparing those figures to the other horses in the race will give you a pretty good idea of how well the horse will fare. Naturally the horse with the highest figures doesn’t always win, but the horse with the lowest figures seldom wins. If you are betting to win then you want a horse who figures in the top of the speed figs race.

Number Two is pace. Speed alone does not win races. A horse with high speed figures can get beaten if it locks up in a killer speed duel on the front end while a more even runner sets a realistic pace behind the front runners and picks up the pieces coming down the stretch. Another situation that can stop a speedy type is track condition and type. For instance, a horse that likes a hard fast track gets on a deep track that is still listed as fast. The horse is bet according to its performances on a hard and fast track and runs out of gas coming down the stretch. The problem was that it tired badly because it was racing on a deep surface that favored a plodder.

Number three is connections. I want to see a top jockey on my horse or one who is consistent and though he or she may not be at the top of the win stats, can still win races with a good horse beneath him or her. I also want a good trainer who has experience at that track and has shown he or she can win at that level of competition. A lousy or inexperienced trainer can lose races by messing around with a horse when the horse is fine and ready to win. The smart trainers get them ready and then let them win. The other trainers try to make them win. There is a big difference.

So those are the three most important factors in handicapping races. No matter what your style or what pools you choose to play, you will have to master those three areas and understand them to make money at handicapping. The next important consideration is inside information such as you find in True Handicapping. Put the top factors together with inside information and your ROI will soar.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

One of the most overlooked and misunderstood aspects of picking winners in horseracing handicapping is simply called sight handicapping. Sight handicapping is simply looking at the horses and making a judgment based on the looks of each runner.

I’ve picked some nice winners this way and have also saved myself a small fortune over the years by being aware of horses that showed warning signs of being in poor physical condition. First of all, there are some good tapes and books written on the subject. Bonnie Leadbetter did an excellent tape and there are some good books, too. Unless you are an expert horseman or horsewoman, I’d advise you to get some of those reference materials and study them. Not only is it profitable because you will understand the animals and be able to spot horses that are far superior to the competition, but it is also just plain fun to watch these beautiful animals and to understand them even more.

When I bet on a horse there are a few things I look for in the walking ring or saddling area. The first place I start with a horse is to look at its coat. I want to see a shiny coat of hair and just beneath the skin I want to see dappling. A horse with a shiny healthy coat and dappling is a horse that is fit. Another thing I look for is how the horse carries his or her head. Lameness shows up when a horse is walking and you can see that in how it bobs its head. If it bobs too mauch and seems to arry its head to low or too high, it can be a sign of a horse that is trying to compensate by shifting weight off its front or rear legs by how it holds its head.

Of course you should also look at the hoofs, legs, and shins. Are the hooves cracked or split? Is it wearing front wraps? Is there any trace of a medication on the shins that would indicate it has been blistered to relieve a shin splint? These are all important clues that a horse is not ready to give its best effort.

Once out on the track look for a horse that warms up well, moving easily and showing some spring in its strides. A horse that is literally on its toes is one that is ready to give a good effort. Some horses will rock like a rocking horse in the post parade and seem to be more animated than the rest. A flat footed horse that plods along is usually not a good bet unless that is its nature. Most horses will show their energy level and gameness with a spirited stride.

Watch the tote board and see how they are bet. There are many insiders at the track that know how to spot a good one. If you think you’ve spotted one, confirm it on the tote board. For more good insider information go to True Handicapping

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store

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By Bill Peterson

The best way to find a winner at the race track is just wait until the race is over and look at the tote board.

The second best way is to work hard as a handicapper and handicap horse races and pay special attention to all the little details that most people over look. When it comes to horseracing handicapping the most overlooked information is the tote board and the works. The reason is quite simple, people don’t know how to use the information from either of those two sources to find winners.

The key to workouts is that there is more than meets the eye. The secret to using works effectively is to look for patterns and trainer moves and make comparisons. On top of all that you must also combine workouts with other factors. Works alone won’t point out many winners but when used with trainer moves and other information they can be a gold mine. Here is just one example. In maiden races a lone fast work is impressive, but a series of works that are about equally spaced and show steady improvement are much more impressive. Next, if you know how the trainer works and that the trainer brings his young horses along slowly and steadily, you will know that the horse is progressing nicely even though the times of those works may not be impressive compared to other works shown but runners in the same race.

One horse who is also competing in the race may have a bullet work, but that doesn’t mean it is a better bet. How does that trainer work his or her maidens? Does the trainer burn them up in the morning only to fail with them in the afternoon? There are some pretty high profile trainers who do poorly with maidens because they try to bring along a green horse as though it is a seasoned racer. That just doesn’t work with many young horses. So while their horses may show a fast work in the morning, they often fall apart in a race only to be beaten by a horse with a much better “bottom” in it and the confidence and patience that many well timed works can build.

So it isn’t enough to just watch workout times, but coupled with other inside information, workouts can really make a horse stand out even if the works themselves aren’t impressive at first glance. That is why the insider’s often bet a horse and you are scratching your head wondering why. It takes inside information like True Handicapping, to really beat the races.

For that reason I always say, watch the secrets of the tote board and learn how each trainer uses works to spot good bets at good odds.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store

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By Bill Peterson

Everybody likes to have a winner and racing tips have been a good source of winners for many people over the years. Some people sell tips. Sometimes the tips they sell are based on inside information and other times they are nothing more than fabrications made up to separate some poor handicapper from his or her hard earned dough.

Tip services have to do a pretty good job because they can’t stay in business for long without at least coming close to showing a profit. But let’s face it, if they sell you a tip they are also selling it to other people, too. How many people have the same tip you have? If you all bet the same tips how low will the odds be and what will the bet be worth?

So public services that sell tips may send you winners, but the odds will be so low that the payoffs won’t cover your bets, not to mention the fee for the tips. So overall, tips from services have little real value.

In order to be valuable, a tip has to have a very limited number of people playing it. Otherwise, it will be bet down to nothing. Many stables set up horses to win at good odds. They are betting stables and after a while the word gets round that they are a betting stable and their runners get lots of attention. But they do many things to hide the action when they have a live horse. Some of the ways you can discover how to tell when a betting stable is sending a horse to win are in True Handicapping

Just because a horse is bet down below the morning line odds, it doesn’t mean that the horse is being bet by inside money. The public can drive the odds down and then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as more and more people see a lot of money bet on a horse and keep betting it more and more figuring the horse is being sent. So it is absolutely imperative that you know whether the only people who count, the barn and connections, are betting the horse. The biggest tips you will ever find are on the tote board, but not always easy to spot.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store

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By Bill Peterson

One of the things that makes horse racing handicapping so difficult is trying to figure out what an animal will do when it tries something for the first time. Runners going from sprints to routes is a good example. Once a horse has raced at a route distance of say a mile or more, it becomes obvious whether it likes longer contests or prefers sprints.

But for those youngsters that are going long the first time it becomes problematic to determine what they will do with the added distance. Curiously enough, a lot of times, the clues come from the connections, i.e., the trainer and jockey. If you see a horse going long for the first time and the regular rides gets off and another rider is on, it isn’t a good sign unless there is a significant improvement in reins men.

That is the first place I look for a clue as to how it will run. Next, look for clues from the conditioner. Is the horse taking a drop in class? Have medications or blinkers been added? Now if you find that something has been added or taken away, blinkers for instance, the next thing to do is to see if there have been any changes in workouts.

Many times a trainer will try an equipment or medication change out with a good workout before entering in a real race. If you see a change was made and a good work followed, then maybe the conditioner has figured something out and now figures the runner is ready for longer distances.

The final clues may come from breeding. Usually, stamina and distance traits are inherited from the dams side of the family. Look at the dam’s sire and see if it was a distance runner. Keeping breeding stats or buying programs with these stats included will help. Finally, if you can form a real concrete opinion about what is going to happen in today’s race, you might want to pass it by. It is hard enough to handicap when you do know what to expect without making it little more than a crap shoot.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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