By Bill Peterson

Here are two questions anyone who handicaps horse races should know and be able to answer correctly, “Which horses win 60-70% of all horse races and why is that so important?”

The answer is that the top three contenders win about two thirds of all races.

Why is that important? Here are three reasons…

Reason #1.
Because they are going to win most of the races you bet on.
How do you quickly spot the top three contenders? Easily, just look at the odds board. The horses who have the lowest odds are the most likely contenders.

Now I know a lot of punters are looking for value in the pools and trying to find an overlay. I also know many of you don’t like to bet the favorite or a low priced horse. That is understandable.

But you have to be realistic and admit that those three horses, the ones with the lowest odds, win the majority of races. Now ask yourself this, “Do I have a bias against low priced horses even if betting them will be profitable?”

Reason #2.
You’re missing some great bets.
If you spend all your time scouring a program looking for a great 15-1 horse to bet and keep overlooking that great 5-2 horse, then you have a sickness known as “longshot-itis.” The cure for longshot-itis is to sit down and go over those old programs and see how many times a horse with all the credentials to be a winner was passed over for some highly questionable longshot.

Reason #3.
There are probably more value bets in the top three contenders.
That’s right, there may be more value in the lower priced horses than in the longshots, because they really do have what it takes to win. I love longshots as much as anyone does and have bet on my share, but I also love a 3-1 horse who is going against an even money horse that is way over bet. Talk about value.

There are systems to find value in the top three contenders and systems to hit nice longshots. I recommend using both when handicapping any race and seeing which one produces the best opportunities.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Every day, millions of people around the world watch and bet on horse races to make a profit. That is the truth. We love it as a spectator sport, the thrill of watching the ups and downs of great horses like Big Brown and Curlin, but we also love the fact that if we do it right, we can make money betting on the sport of kings.

But like many things in life it takes a systematic approach. A good horse racing system can pay for itself many times over, once you’ve customized it a little to suit your taste and style. But there are so many kinds of systems out there, how do you know which one is right for you?

Let’s break it down into two categories and two kinds of bets. Of course this is a very simplistic approach but I am going to use it to demonstrate the right thought process that you can use to find the right system from the thousands that are available.

The two major categories are…

1. Medium to short priced contenders
2. Long shots

The two major kinds of systems are…

1. Situational
2. Fundamental

Categories…
Using a system to find short to medium priced horses will give you lots of action because there are contenders in this group in almost any race. It will also usually mean shorter losing streaks because those horses win more often.

Long shots are fewer and farther between because if they are a long shot, there is usually a very good reason, however, there are still some good long shot bets to be found.

Kinds…
Situational systems help you to find a particular situation in a race and then to bet the horse(s) who fills the conditions of the situation. They are often called spot plays and easily found with very little judgment or thought other than whether they meet the requirements of the system.

Fundamental systems give you the basics to compare all runners and then make decisions based on the properties that each contender exhibits. They require more independent thought and judgment on the pat of the user and therefore are more subject to error, but also more flexible and allow you to develop your own style.

Conclusions…
Given the basic criteria above, and I realize this is very simplistic, it is up to you to decide which kind of handicapping system you can work with. Do you require a lot of action? Do you want something to be automatic or do you want to be able to develop your own decision making skills? It really comes down to your own personality and knowing yourself and your strengths and weaknesses. The rest is just a matter of looking at the systems that are available and picking a good one.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Are you one of the many people who is trying to make a living or supplement your income with horse racing?

Every week I have people email me asking if it is really possible to make a profit from horse racing and whether they can make a living at handicapping races. I try to answer them honestly and it probably costs me many sales. On the other hand, over the years, it has helped me to develop a following of people who would rather hear the truth than a sales pitch.

I have had years when I made a profit from horse racing. It was work, but I kept good records and knew at the end of the year that I had indeed made money. So to answer the question, is it possible to make a profit from horse racing handicapping, the answer is, yes. But, that doesn’t mean that you can do it, it only means that I did it. I like to tell people that I am not the sharpest tack in the box, so I believe that many other people can and probably do make a profit at the horse races.

But like I said, I don’t know if you can do it, that depends on many factors. First of all, let me assure you, that if you are strapped for cash and trying to make money at the races, it will be some tough sledding. Risking money you can’t afford to lose is almost certain to cause you more problems and is not a sound plan to solve your money problems. Scared money doesn’t win.

On the other hand, if you can put aside a bankroll, school yourself with a few good systems and practice using them, then you may be able to show a profit. But, once again, there is a difference between making a profit and making a living. How much money do you need? How much money do you have to bankroll your handicapping project?

While things seldom work out as easily or cleanly in real life as they do on paper, I always advise people to sit down first and outline their goals, especially financial goals. The first question to be answered is, how much do you have in your bankroll? Secondly, how much do you want to make? Finally, how much will you have to wager per day, week, month, year, to achieve your goal with a 10% profit?

That 10% is arbitrary, I realize that, but it is a starting figure. If you can make 10% profit over the long haul from your bets at the horse races, you’re doing good. If you can show a better profit ratio, my hat is off to you. So let’s say you are extremely good at handicapping horse races and can make a profit of 20% on all your wagers over time.

To make a yearly figure of $10,000, hardly enough to support a person in the United States, unless you like the taste of cat food and don’t mind keeping your belongings in a shopping cart, then you will have to make $50,000 worth of bets in a year to reach that goal of $10,000. You can plug in your own numbers, I am just trying to show the process that I recommend you use to decide how realistic your goals are.

My own recommendation is that you first find a good system and learn how to use it making small bets that you can afford. Once you have a good idea of what you can do, then sit down and make a plan on paper using a similar process.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Did you ever think of what the three basic components of horse racing are? If you are trying to pick winners at the races, you had better know and understand each one or winning will be very difficult. Many people will be surprised to realize that one of the components is something they overlooked.

Here are the three basic components…

1. The horse. Obvious isn’t it? But what about the horse? How fast it will run today, right? But how about if it has ever accomplished the task you are asking of it today? Has it won on this surface at this distance against the same class of horses it is facing today? How long ago did that occur? Is it coming back after a layoff/rest? When you really get into it, there are so many things about the horse to be considered when comparing it with the other runners, it is amazing we ever have time for the next component.

2. The connections are what I consider the second most important component and without them meeting certain requirements, it is hard to find consistent winners. The connections, like the horse, have to demonstrate the ability to win. A jockey must have at least a 10 percent win average and ideally have own on this horse.

3. This last component may surprise some of you. It is you. The one player in the game whom you must absolutely understand to be successful is yourself. Know your strengths and weaknesses and also understand what you need to do to be a winner. Not only must you know these things, but you must also write them down. If you can’t write them down and face the truth, then it is time to find another game to play because horse racing is tough enough without depending upon a liar.

It is better to admit your weaknesses and to avoid situations that are difficult than to keep losing the same way. There is no shame in making a mistake or error in judgment, as long as you don’t keep making the same mistake over and over.

Be able to evaluate yourself and your own performance in anything you do is a great strength and will help you in any area of life, not just horse racing.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

There is probably no greater thrill in horse racing handicapping than picking a long shot winner. Of course any kind of score is good and winning always beat losing, even with a chalk (favorite). But seeing the horses thundering down the stretch and watching your pick get across the finish line first and paying big prices is one of the biggest thrills in gambling.

That is why so many people play longshots and why you hear a lot of high pitched screaming when one wins. That person making all the noise has good reason to celebrate. For big profits you need big prices, especially if you aren’t making large bets. A ten dollar bet on a longshot may pay hundreds of dollars while a ten dollar bet on a favorite will pay much less.

One of the keys to picking longshot winners is to realize that it takes a different process and mindset to do it. Otherwise, finding a longshot winner would be as easy as any other handicapping and they would be bet down so they were no longer long priced horses. That would change everything. They win in spite of the fact that they do not have the same things going for them that other horses have.

Learning to spot the red flags that let you know a horse might win at a big price is how you will find some very profitable situations. Sometimes it is impossible to know that a horse is going to turn in a big performance, but not always.

The biggest win ticket I ever cashed was on a first time starter in a maiden race. It paid $130. The reason I bet on it was that the rest of the field looked so bad on paper and while I was watching the post parade, the first time starter looked so good. I also noted a progression of workouts that, though not particularly fast, showed steady improvement and were evenly spaced.

Another clue that the horse might have a chance to win was that a good jockey was in the saddle. A look at the trainer stats showed he did sometimes win with “firsters,” but wasn’t setting the world on fire with them. That showed the trainer could do it, if he had the right horse.

As I said, it isn’t like finding a favorite or low priced contender to bet on. You must look for clues that show a horse might have a dramatic change in form. It can be a rest, and equipment change, rider switch, even an outstanding workout, or a subtle combination of these things and other factors.

Longshots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill’s Longshot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com - Bill has been around Horse racing for 50 years and knows how to spot a good bet and loves to teach others. He is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore2.html -Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Sandy Ford-Graham

Now that some of the top sports books are offering US horse racing to their Euro markets and opening up international markets for racing from the States, it is a good time to look at some of the benefits for players outside the U.S.

Racing in the United States is different than racing in Europe and other parts of the world and therefore offers new opportunities and challenges. The opportunity for winning bets is good if you take advantage of some of the information that is available. For instance, the punters in the States have a much better source of data about the races and connections than people in some other countries have and therefore, you can find situations where a wager is very profitable.

Races are broken down into fractional times for each leg of a race. There is a time given for the quarter mile, half mile, and three quarter mile, as well as the top of the stretch and a final time. The position of each horse in the race can be determined and how far off the leader it was. This can be particularly handy in pace handicapping.

While the US races don’t offer as many betting schemes as UK bookies do, they still have many exotics like, bet 3’s, pick 4’s, pick 6’s, as well as daily doubles, rolling daily doubles (double bets on each race rather than just the first two races on the card), and of course trifectas and exactas. The straight bets play a little differently so you have to be aware of that before wagering.

When playing straight bets, be aware that place is only paid for a first or second place finish no matter how large the field is and that show is paid over the first three finishers. In the UK the place bets depend upon the size of the field, but not so across the pond.

Betting on U.S. based horseracing could be a big boon to the Sportsbooks when their players realize how much information is available to help them make their selections. The programs are extensive and the data services reasonably priced. The UK sports books that take bets on the US horse races are doing their part to help out by offering some tutorial information. Another good thing for UK based players is that the wagers are co-mingled with the pools at the U.S. tracks so you get the same odds that U.S. players get.

Check out Sandy’s Sports Betting Guide at http://www.blognow.com.au/sportsbettingguide/ and get the best deals and bonuses from the top sportsbooks. Learn how to be a smart bettor and win big with articles and helpful tips.

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By Bill Peterson

Knowing trainer moves is important if you want to make a consistent profit. That means focusing on one track or circuit and getting totally familiar with the trainers and how they progress their horses from races for conditioning and workouts to races for paychecks and wins.

First of all, forget about playing a bunch of tracks all over the country day after day and making a profit. That isn’t real handicapping, it is gambling. If you want to gamble, go ahead and do that, but don’t for a moment think that you are going to keep making money that way.

Handicapping for a living is brutal and requires you to focus and become an expert on the track and circuit you are playing. That means knowing the trainers and how they train their horses. Each trainer has his or her own way of taking a horse and conditioning it and getting it to progress forward.

Some trainers use races to condition a horse and others use works, while some use a combination. When you see a particular trainer’s horse in a race you should know how much the jockey is going to push the horse to win and whether he or she is just out to condition the horse or win. How many horses who are not meant to win can you afford to bet on and still show a profit?

One way to know how ready a horse is and whether the trainer will be trying to win with the horse, to “Send it,” as they say, is to look at the hidden fractions in the horses last two races. You must combine this with how the trainer trains his or her horses to know whether the horse is well meant or just out for exercise.

After the first quarter fraction of the race look at the next fractions and determine if the horse made a big middle move. If the horse made a big middle move in one race and showed big early or late speed in the other of the two previous races that may well mean the trainer is testing the horse to see if it is ready to win. Those moves are classic examples of how trainers will build bottom, or endurance in their horses as well as testing them to know if they have what it takes to win at the level they are competing at.

If you see a race pattern like the one described and then see a drop in class, the next thing to do is to check the scoreboard. There are ways to compare pools to figure out if the horse is being bet by inside money. Some of the inside moves are described at True Handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Here is the next in the series of what I call my golden rules in horseracing handicapping or how to pick winners without losing your shirt or your mind. That may sound a bit ominous, but let’s face it, this game can drive you crazy unless you set a few simple rules for yourself.

Of course money management is one of the top priorities in anything we do in life that requires an outlay and risk. But nowhere in life is the need for money management more important than in gambling, even recreational gambling. Some people who make a living trying to teach other people how to handicap horse races would have you believe that betting on horses is an investment, not a gamble. I say it is an investment with a lot of risk, therefore a gamble.

It is speculation and speculation involves risk. We do our best to limit the risk and hedge our bets, but in a free market like horse racing, we compete against other people and though you may be pretty sharp and good at finding value plays, there are a lot of sharp tacks in the box and they are doing the same thing. What that means is that in order to profit from this business or game, you need to take a chance. That is gambling.

So managing your money is a key factor in staying in the game long enough to learn the game and make a profit. I say, handicap aggressively and wager cautiously. Go for value and take the risk but do so with an amount of money that isn’t going to crush you no matter how great the return may appear to be.

Set loss limits and stick to them and keep track of how your bets and decisions are doing and also the fluctuations in your bankroll based on your decisions and the races and other factors in your play. One good way to do that is with a visual system such as Ladder Handicapping

If you can quickly look at the bets you have made and the changes in your bankroll by holding two ladders side by side it illustrates the strengths and weaknesses in your play and helps you to make changes that will improve your winning percentage and lessen the strain on your bankroll. For instance, after 100 bets you have four ladders that show four different kinds of bets you have made and the dates you made them. You also have a ladder that shows the changes in your bankroll. By comparing each bet ladder to your bankroll ladder you realize that two of the bet categories show more profit but grater losing streaks, too, while the other two show one winner that has a high strike rate and small fluctuations in your bankroll and one loser. You drop the losing category from your betting strategy and increase your bets with the high strike rate bets. You drop the amounts on the other two categories just in case the losing streaks get a little longer and threaten your bankroll all together.

As a result your ROI goes up and there is less wear and tear on your nerves. All because you have observed Rule Number Three Make a Money Management Plan and Stick to it.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to True handicapping and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store

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By Bill Peterson

Usually when you think of taking care of the details in life it means that life is more complicated. But in horse racing Handicapping, taking care of the details and leaving the big factors alone may actually reduce stress.

Everyone will watch the big factors like class and speed when it comes to handicapping the race and the tote board will accurately reflect which horses have the edge in those well known categories. Your job as a handicapper is to find a way to get an edge over the competition. Sometimes that means finding a niche that has been overlooked by the crowd.

With all the scrutiny on the usual handicapping factors, you aren’t going to find anything the crowd overlooked in the usual categories. But finding a seemingly minor detail that might make the critical difference is a good way to spot a good value play. For instance, let’s say a certain horse that shoed back class and did well at a higher level has been running poorly of late. The horse’s form fell off about the same time that the horse started sporting front wraps, a sign that there was a problem with lameness or soreness in the horse’s forelegs.

You have been watching the track lately and notice that it is deeper and softer than usual lately. There seems to be no value on the board because all the horse’s in the race appear to be an open book. Accordingly, the crowd has placed fair odds on the runners based on their class, speed, form, connections.

You don’t have to butt your head against the crowd trying to figure out a slight edge in value. The best play of the day may be the horse with the front wraps because today it will find a more comfortable track to run on and may show an improvement in form. That is a minor detail that the crowd has overlooked and that you can use to your advantage. It isn’t always the big factors that make the difference in making a profit at the track. Sometimes it is the little detail that leads to a big profit. A few insiders at the track will spot those details and make a profit on them day after day while public handicappers and 99% of the crowd look at all the usual things. You could almost call this inside information except for the fact that it was there in front of you and everyone else, but because you started looking at the details you found it and cashed in on it. This is the kind of inside information such as you find in True Handicapping that can make a big difference in your handicapping success and lowering your stress and making big profits.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Each person must find his or her own way to handicap races and then make a decision as to which horses offer the best value on the odds board. Some people prefer exotic bets while others stick to straight bets like win, place, and show. No one can tell you which bet type is best for you. The truth may be that you become a situational bettor looking for value in more than one pool.

But whatever method you choose for picking your bets, one thing holds true. Determining which horses have the best chance of hitting the winner’s circle will depend upon three top factors. There is just no getting around the big three.

Number one is speed. “Fast horses win races and royal flushes beat aces,” a line in a popular John Pryne song is true. Looking at the speed figures for the last three races in a horse’s career and comparing those figures to the other horses in the race will give you a pretty good idea of how well the horse will fare. Naturally the horse with the highest figures doesn’t always win, but the horse with the lowest figures seldom wins. If you are betting to win then you want a horse who figures in the top of the speed figs race.

Number Two is pace. Speed alone does not win races. A horse with high speed figures can get beaten if it locks up in a killer speed duel on the front end while a more even runner sets a realistic pace behind the front runners and picks up the pieces coming down the stretch. Another situation that can stop a speedy type is track condition and type. For instance, a horse that likes a hard fast track gets on a deep track that is still listed as fast. The horse is bet according to its performances on a hard and fast track and runs out of gas coming down the stretch. The problem was that it tired badly because it was racing on a deep surface that favored a plodder.

Number three is connections. I want to see a top jockey on my horse or one who is consistent and though he or she may not be at the top of the win stats, can still win races with a good horse beneath him or her. I also want a good trainer who has experience at that track and has shown he or she can win at that level of competition. A lousy or inexperienced trainer can lose races by messing around with a horse when the horse is fine and ready to win. The smart trainers get them ready and then let them win. The other trainers try to make them win. There is a big difference.

So those are the three most important factors in handicapping races. No matter what your style or what pools you choose to play, you will have to master those three areas and understand them to make money at handicapping. The next important consideration is inside information such as you find in True Handicapping. Put the top factors together with inside information and your ROI will soar.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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