By Bill Peterson

Did you ever think of what the three basic components of horse racing are? If you are trying to pick winners at the races, you had better know and understand each one or winning will be very difficult. Many people will be surprised to realize that one of the components is something they overlooked.

Here are the three basic components…

1. The horse. Obvious isn’t it? But what about the horse? How fast it will run today, right? But how about if it has ever accomplished the task you are asking of it today? Has it won on this surface at this distance against the same class of horses it is facing today? How long ago did that occur? Is it coming back after a layoff/rest? When you really get into it, there are so many things about the horse to be considered when comparing it with the other runners, it is amazing we ever have time for the next component.

2. The connections are what I consider the second most important component and without them meeting certain requirements, it is hard to find consistent winners. The connections, like the horse, have to demonstrate the ability to win. A jockey must have at least a 10 percent win average and ideally have own on this horse.

3. This last component may surprise some of you. It is you. The one player in the game whom you must absolutely understand to be successful is yourself. Know your strengths and weaknesses and also understand what you need to do to be a winner. Not only must you know these things, but you must also write them down. If you can’t write them down and face the truth, then it is time to find another game to play because horse racing is tough enough without depending upon a liar.

It is better to admit your weaknesses and to avoid situations that are difficult than to keep losing the same way. There is no shame in making a mistake or error in judgment, as long as you don’t keep making the same mistake over and over.

Be able to evaluate yourself and your own performance in anything you do is a great strength and will help you in any area of life, not just horse racing.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

There is probably no greater thrill in horse racing handicapping than picking a long shot winner. Of course any kind of score is good and winning always beat losing, even with a chalk (favorite). But seeing the horses thundering down the stretch and watching your pick get across the finish line first and paying big prices is one of the biggest thrills in gambling.

That is why so many people play longshots and why you hear a lot of high pitched screaming when one wins. That person making all the noise has good reason to celebrate. For big profits you need big prices, especially if you aren’t making large bets. A ten dollar bet on a longshot may pay hundreds of dollars while a ten dollar bet on a favorite will pay much less.

One of the keys to picking longshot winners is to realize that it takes a different process and mindset to do it. Otherwise, finding a longshot winner would be as easy as any other handicapping and they would be bet down so they were no longer long priced horses. That would change everything. They win in spite of the fact that they do not have the same things going for them that other horses have.

Learning to spot the red flags that let you know a horse might win at a big price is how you will find some very profitable situations. Sometimes it is impossible to know that a horse is going to turn in a big performance, but not always.

The biggest win ticket I ever cashed was on a first time starter in a maiden race. It paid $130. The reason I bet on it was that the rest of the field looked so bad on paper and while I was watching the post parade, the first time starter looked so good. I also noted a progression of workouts that, though not particularly fast, showed steady improvement and were evenly spaced.

Another clue that the horse might have a chance to win was that a good jockey was in the saddle. A look at the trainer stats showed he did sometimes win with “firsters,” but wasn’t setting the world on fire with them. That showed the trainer could do it, if he had the right horse.

As I said, it isn’t like finding a favorite or low priced contender to bet on. You must look for clues that show a horse might have a dramatic change in form. It can be a rest, and equipment change, rider switch, even an outstanding workout, or a subtle combination of these things and other factors.

Longshots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill’s Longshot Rater at http://williewins.homestead.com - Bill has been around Horse racing for 50 years and knows how to spot a good bet and loves to teach others. He is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore2.html -Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Sandy Ford-Graham

Now that some of the top sports books are offering US horse racing to their Euro markets and opening up international markets for racing from the States, it is a good time to look at some of the benefits for players outside the U.S.

Racing in the United States is different than racing in Europe and other parts of the world and therefore offers new opportunities and challenges. The opportunity for winning bets is good if you take advantage of some of the information that is available. For instance, the punters in the States have a much better source of data about the races and connections than people in some other countries have and therefore, you can find situations where a wager is very profitable.

Races are broken down into fractional times for each leg of a race. There is a time given for the quarter mile, half mile, and three quarter mile, as well as the top of the stretch and a final time. The position of each horse in the race can be determined and how far off the leader it was. This can be particularly handy in pace handicapping.

While the US races don’t offer as many betting schemes as UK bookies do, they still have many exotics like, bet 3’s, pick 4’s, pick 6’s, as well as daily doubles, rolling daily doubles (double bets on each race rather than just the first two races on the card), and of course trifectas and exactas. The straight bets play a little differently so you have to be aware of that before wagering.

When playing straight bets, be aware that place is only paid for a first or second place finish no matter how large the field is and that show is paid over the first three finishers. In the UK the place bets depend upon the size of the field, but not so across the pond.

Betting on U.S. based horseracing could be a big boon to the Sportsbooks when their players realize how much information is available to help them make their selections. The programs are extensive and the data services reasonably priced. The UK sports books that take bets on the US horse races are doing their part to help out by offering some tutorial information. Another good thing for UK based players is that the wagers are co-mingled with the pools at the U.S. tracks so you get the same odds that U.S. players get.

Check out Sandy’s Sports Betting Guide at http://www.blognow.com.au/sportsbettingguide/ and get the best deals and bonuses from the top sportsbooks. Learn how to be a smart bettor and win big with articles and helpful tips.

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How Important Are Shoe Changes and the Shoe Board When Handicapping Horse Races For Profit?
By Bill Peterson

If you are like most people who handicap horse races, you probably ignore shoe changes, other than to note when horses are wearing mud caulks and racing on an off track. Have you ever heard the old saying, “For want of a nail, the shoe was lost, for want of the shoe, the horse was lost, for want of the horse the rider was lost, for want of the rider the battle was lost and for want of the battle the kingdom was lost?”

It is meant to teach the importance of details when trying to succeed at complicated or big tasks, It means that the little things can cost a lot more than just the price of the small thing, like a nail. But there is another message here as well. It also shoes that the shoe on a horse does make a difference in the horse’s performance. How many races are won or lost in a photo finish? Though the race may be a mile long, horse races are often decided by fractions of a second.

If a shoe is lost during a race, and sometimes they are, then the race may be lost because of the missing shoe. This doesn’t just apply to thoroughbred racing, but to harness racing and quarter horse racing as well. In fact, it applies to any equine event. Most good horse racing handicappers know how important the addition of lasix or equipment changes can be, but how many pay attention to horse shoes?

One of the problems is that many people do not understand what is involved in properly shoeing a horse. When I was racing harness horses we would take a new horse into the barn and change it’s shoeing and its performance would change dramatically. The reason is that the horse’s hooves are vital to its comfort and ability.

A good farrier will not only fasten shoes to a horse’s hooves with nails or adhesive, but will also trim the hoof and make adjustments to it as well. He or she will look at the horse as it stands still and determine if a hoof is off balance and turning the foot in or out. A thousand pound animal puts an astonishing amount of pressure on its feet as it thunders down the race track. Each shock as its hoof hits the hard surface of the track is absorbed by the bone and tissue in the legs sending shock waves all the way to its back.

Now imagine how that feels and the affect it has upon the horse if it’s feet are off balance. The joints are being twisted and pain and inflammation may result. Naturally, an animal that is running and feels that will compensate by slowing down. You probably won’t know how well a horse is shod by looking at the shoe bard which tells if there has been a change in the style of shoe worn, but you may tell by its appearance in the paddock or in the race. Another clue is a dramatic change in workouts.

For instance, if you see that a horse is running with a new style of shoe and its workout times have improved, it is a good bet that a farrier has made an adjustment with positive results. Keep that in mind when trying to determine if a horse is improving.

Am I being too picky by implying that filing a hoof a little and changing the shape of a shoe can make a horse win a race? If a nail can cost a kingdom, I think it is a safe bet that a shoe can cost a race.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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Understanding Jockey Moves When Handicapping Horse Races
By Bill Peterson

One of the hardest things to figure out when you are handicapping a horse race is what the change of jockey means. Understanding jockey moves will help you to win more bets and lose less money at the races. For instance, the rider who rode the 3 in its last race is now on the 5 and the jockey who rode the 7 declines the ride so there is now a new one on the 7 and he got off the 8 and… well you get the idea. There are times when the riders stay on their mounts and you can handicap the race, but there are also times when all the rider switching will make your head swim.

Before you make a bet you want to know why these riders switched their mounts. Rider changes are usually due to the jockey, or jockey’s agent, making the change. If a trainer can get a good jock on his or her horse, they aren’t likely to make a switch, most of the time. So you can usually figure that if a horse pilot is making a switch, he or she figures to have a better chance of winning the race, or future races on that horse.

Probably the easiest switch to understand and handicap is the switch from one horse to another horse who looks better on paper. It seems quite obvious that the jockey thinks he or she will have a better chance of winning since he or she won or came close last time out with that mount.

But appearances can often be deceiving and the reason may be murkier. When a rider gets on a mount he or she may not plan on winning that race but realizes as the regular rider of the horse he or she may win several races in the future. It doesn’t happen often, but sometimes a rider will get off a horse that is in better form at the moment to get on a horse with more potential for the future.

Then there is the case where the trainer does decide that a different rider would be better suited to the horse. This is like trying to match up couples. Some jockeys are known for being better with younger horses, or hustling them out of the gate faster. Some jockeys are known for being able to rate on the front and getting the most from a front runner while there are others who specialize in closers. Knowing something about the strengths and weaknesses of the jockeys at your favorite track(s) can help a lot.

Some programs and data services now show a breakdown of which categories jockeys win in, They show how well each one fared on maidens, grass races, routes, sprints, etc. When reading them, bear in mind that it depends a lot upon how good the horses were that the jockey was riding. It may appear that a rider is great on the grass compared to the others, when in reality he or she just happened to catch a few very good turf runners.

The final bit of wisdom for picking winners and making bets is to be aware of their strengths, but like everything else in handicapping horse races, be prepared for changes. There are no absolutes and just because a rider is known for being good with maidens, it doesn’t mean he or she will win with that maiden today. The most important factor is still the horse itself and how fit and ready it is for the contest it is about to run.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

There is an old saying that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. That is certainly true at the horse races where a little knowledge can cause you to make some costly betting mistakes. Probably knowing that favorites win about a third of the races has cost many people dearly and made some false favorites.

The problem is that the public’s choice isn’t always the same. The chalk, as it is sometimes called, does win about a third of the races and completes the exacta roughly half the time, but that means it does so in all the races. That statistic doesn’t show how many win in races with short fields or how many win at 5-2 odds as opposed to 3-5 odds. If you break it down, the stats reveal that the favorite is not as likely to win in a field of 10 horses as it is in a 6 horse race.

Furthermore, the chalk isn’t as likely to win at 5-2 as it is at 3-5. Yet many people scan the toteboard and see a favorite in a race and go and bet it or use it in exotic betting and expect it to win about one race out of three. That is a recipe for financial disaster. Playing the public choice is a losing proposition over the long haul though you may experience brief times of being ahead.

If you are betting based solely on the odds without any further handicapping, consider the following;

Here are some things to avoid when playing favorites…

1. Don’t play favorites in races with fields of more than 7 horses. As field size increases, your favorite’s chances decrease exponentially

2. Don’t Bottom wheel favorites in exactas. They win roughly a third of their races and finish in the exacta about 50% of the time. That means they actually place only about once out of 6 races.

3. Don’t bet the chalk across the board. While the win bet is a losing proposition place and show are even worse because of the hidden cost of breakage (discussed in other articles I’ve written).

4. Don’t use progressive betting to try to make up for your losses when chalks fail. Some people think that there is a law of averages that if a favorite fails a certain number of times it is bound to win because of the “law of averages.” There is no law of averages and even if there was, who would enforce it?

If you must play the toteboard, then look for value in the pools by doing a little math such as the method in True Handicapping for finding live horses or even the old standby of Z betting, made popular by Dr. Ziemba many years ago.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Now that we have seen poly tracks installed at many race tracks in the United States and Canada, the betting public seems to have gotten as big a break as the horses who run on them. The poly tracks seem to offer a more cushioned surface for the animals and that is good news. It reduces the strain on their fragile legs and reduces injuries.

Reducing injuries is good news for everyone involved in the industry, not just the horses. While many of us were raised on dirt races run on natural surfaces, and tradition notwithstanding, I think most of us would like to see more tracks install a synthetic surface.

Handicapping horse races on the man made surfaces also seems to eliminate the problem of tracks, though a wet poly track really doesn’t seem to play exactly like a dry one. Now here is a question for you handicappers who spend hours handicapping races. How many times have you spent a lot of time deciphering a race that was to be run on the grass, only to have it switched to the dirt track because of rain?

Many people really love to watch the animals run on grass, it seems so natural and less stressful than pounding along on a hard dirt surface, but when the grass gets too wet and slippery, the races are shifted to the dirt track which may be muddy, unless it’s a synthetic surface, of course.

If they can make a synthetic dirt surface and race on it in all kinds of weather, is there an equivalent for turf races? Though it may not be the real thing, if it was safer for the horses and jockeys and kept the races on the same track for us handicappers, it would be a good thing.

As horse racing continues to evolve and change with the times, it seems that it is only a matter of time before synthetic turf replaces real grass.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

One of the advantages of going to a race track and watching live races is that you get to watch the horses being saddled and to observe them for a while before they run. The second best alternative, of course, is to watch them on a television monitor at an OTB, racebook, or some other venue. Of course, with horse racing now shown on television in the United States and still broadcast on the air in other countries, it is now possible to sit in your own home and watch them run.

Horseracing handicapping can now be done from home, but don’t lose sight of the fact that being at the races and seeing the animals live is still the best. The reason for that is that these living creatures react to their environment and feelings so that the effect of their surroundings and their mood will have an impact on the race results. Observing them before they race is just another tool to add to your handicapping bag of tricks.

I have seen horses literally do a back flip in the paddock and still go out and win a race just minutes later, but that is a rare occurrence. It is much more likely that if an animal is that agitated, or frightened before a race, it isn’t going to perform well. The same can be said of horses that break through the gate and have to be caught and led back and reloaded. They rarely win.

Horses that are all lathered up often break on top and set fast early fractions in a race, but rarely finish well. Learning to observe horses and making a few notes about their condition before a race can really help you to avoid bad bets and to find some really good bets at the horse races.

The ears of a horse can even indicate if it is paying attention to the jockey and trying to please or if it is nervous or distracted. Your job as a handicapper is to figure out what the signs say about the animal and wager accordingly. There are many ways to gamble in this world but one of the fun things about betting on horseracing is that you get to see beautiful live animals and to observe them and to note each one’s unique character and personality. For some of us, that is half the fun.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Knowing trainer moves is important if you want to make a consistent profit. That means focusing on one track or circuit and getting totally familiar with the trainers and how they progress their horses from races for conditioning and workouts to races for paychecks and wins.

First of all, forget about playing a bunch of tracks all over the country day after day and making a profit. That isn’t real handicapping, it is gambling. If you want to gamble, go ahead and do that, but don’t for a moment think that you are going to keep making money that way.

Handicapping for a living is brutal and requires you to focus and become an expert on the track and circuit you are playing. That means knowing the trainers and how they train their horses. Each trainer has his or her own way of taking a horse and conditioning it and getting it to progress forward.

Some trainers use races to condition a horse and others use works, while some use a combination. When you see a particular trainer’s horse in a race you should know how much the jockey is going to push the horse to win and whether he or she is just out to condition the horse or win. How many horses who are not meant to win can you afford to bet on and still show a profit?

One way to know how ready a horse is and whether the trainer will be trying to win with the horse, to “Send it,” as they say, is to look at the hidden fractions in the horses last two races. You must combine this with how the trainer trains his or her horses to know whether the horse is well meant or just out for exercise.

After the first quarter fraction of the race look at the next fractions and determine if the horse made a big middle move. If the horse made a big middle move in one race and showed big early or late speed in the other of the two previous races that may well mean the trainer is testing the horse to see if it is ready to win. Those moves are classic examples of how trainers will build bottom, or endurance in their horses as well as testing them to know if they have what it takes to win at the level they are competing at.

If you see a race pattern like the one described and then see a drop in class, the next thing to do is to check the scoreboard. There are ways to compare pools to figure out if the horse is being bet by inside money. Some of the inside moves are described at True Handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

You’ve probably heard this said before, “These horses have raced so many times against each other, it’s just a matter of whose turn it is to win. They just take turns.”

On any racing circuit there are certain horses who always seem to wind up in the same races. Usually this occurs with claimers or cheap handicap races. First one horse from the group will win and then another one of the horses will win and it really does seem like the trainers are taking turns, but that usually isn’t the case. What is actually happening is that the horses are so evenly matched that a minor advantage is all it takes for one of them to win.

Many times in these races, the favorite fails. That is good news for an astute handicapper, but before we get too excited about the possibility of winning, let’s be honest with ourselves. This is one of the toughest races to handicap because they have all shown that they are capable at this level.

Another problem is that we can’t read their minds to know which one is feeling its best and which one will get a good break, etc. So how do you handicap this race? First of all, there are many times when you should pass a race like this because it really is too close to call. On the other hand, look for value. If a horse has won at this level against this group, why can’t it do it again? If the odds are right, go for it.

The truth is that the trainers and other insiders often don’t have a clue as to which horse will win a race like that, but put their horse in because they know that given a break or in the right circumstances, their horse can win.

Learn more about the truth of how insider’s use this knowledge at True Handicapping and learn how to spot a horse that will pay well and surprise a lot of other handicappers.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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