By Bill Peterson

Here are two questions anyone who handicaps horse races should know and be able to answer correctly, “Which horses win 60-70% of all horse races and why is that so important?”

The answer is that the top three contenders win about two thirds of all races.

Why is that important? Here are three reasons…

Reason #1.
Because they are going to win most of the races you bet on.
How do you quickly spot the top three contenders? Easily, just look at the odds board. The horses who have the lowest odds are the most likely contenders.

Now I know a lot of punters are looking for value in the pools and trying to find an overlay. I also know many of you don’t like to bet the favorite or a low priced horse. That is understandable.

But you have to be realistic and admit that those three horses, the ones with the lowest odds, win the majority of races. Now ask yourself this, “Do I have a bias against low priced horses even if betting them will be profitable?”

Reason #2.
You’re missing some great bets.
If you spend all your time scouring a program looking for a great 15-1 horse to bet and keep overlooking that great 5-2 horse, then you have a sickness known as “longshot-itis.” The cure for longshot-itis is to sit down and go over those old programs and see how many times a horse with all the credentials to be a winner was passed over for some highly questionable longshot.

Reason #3.
There are probably more value bets in the top three contenders.
That’s right, there may be more value in the lower priced horses than in the longshots, because they really do have what it takes to win. I love longshots as much as anyone does and have bet on my share, but I also love a 3-1 horse who is going against an even money horse that is way over bet. Talk about value.

There are systems to find value in the top three contenders and systems to hit nice longshots. I recommend using both when handicapping any race and seeing which one produces the best opportunities.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Every day, millions of people around the world watch and bet on horse races to make a profit. That is the truth. We love it as a spectator sport, the thrill of watching the ups and downs of great horses like Big Brown and Curlin, but we also love the fact that if we do it right, we can make money betting on the sport of kings.

But like many things in life it takes a systematic approach. A good horse racing system can pay for itself many times over, once you’ve customized it a little to suit your taste and style. But there are so many kinds of systems out there, how do you know which one is right for you?

Let’s break it down into two categories and two kinds of bets. Of course this is a very simplistic approach but I am going to use it to demonstrate the right thought process that you can use to find the right system from the thousands that are available.

The two major categories are…

1. Medium to short priced contenders
2. Long shots

The two major kinds of systems are…

1. Situational
2. Fundamental

Categories…
Using a system to find short to medium priced horses will give you lots of action because there are contenders in this group in almost any race. It will also usually mean shorter losing streaks because those horses win more often.

Long shots are fewer and farther between because if they are a long shot, there is usually a very good reason, however, there are still some good long shot bets to be found.

Kinds…
Situational systems help you to find a particular situation in a race and then to bet the horse(s) who fills the conditions of the situation. They are often called spot plays and easily found with very little judgment or thought other than whether they meet the requirements of the system.

Fundamental systems give you the basics to compare all runners and then make decisions based on the properties that each contender exhibits. They require more independent thought and judgment on the pat of the user and therefore are more subject to error, but also more flexible and allow you to develop your own style.

Conclusions…
Given the basic criteria above, and I realize this is very simplistic, it is up to you to decide which kind of handicapping system you can work with. Do you require a lot of action? Do you want something to be automatic or do you want to be able to develop your own decision making skills? It really comes down to your own personality and knowing yourself and your strengths and weaknesses. The rest is just a matter of looking at the systems that are available and picking a good one.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Are you one of the many people who is trying to make a living or supplement your income with horse racing?

Every week I have people email me asking if it is really possible to make a profit from horse racing and whether they can make a living at handicapping races. I try to answer them honestly and it probably costs me many sales. On the other hand, over the years, it has helped me to develop a following of people who would rather hear the truth than a sales pitch.

I have had years when I made a profit from horse racing. It was work, but I kept good records and knew at the end of the year that I had indeed made money. So to answer the question, is it possible to make a profit from horse racing handicapping, the answer is, yes. But, that doesn’t mean that you can do it, it only means that I did it. I like to tell people that I am not the sharpest tack in the box, so I believe that many other people can and probably do make a profit at the horse races.

But like I said, I don’t know if you can do it, that depends on many factors. First of all, let me assure you, that if you are strapped for cash and trying to make money at the races, it will be some tough sledding. Risking money you can’t afford to lose is almost certain to cause you more problems and is not a sound plan to solve your money problems. Scared money doesn’t win.

On the other hand, if you can put aside a bankroll, school yourself with a few good systems and practice using them, then you may be able to show a profit. But, once again, there is a difference between making a profit and making a living. How much money do you need? How much money do you have to bankroll your handicapping project?

While things seldom work out as easily or cleanly in real life as they do on paper, I always advise people to sit down first and outline their goals, especially financial goals. The first question to be answered is, how much do you have in your bankroll? Secondly, how much do you want to make? Finally, how much will you have to wager per day, week, month, year, to achieve your goal with a 10% profit?

That 10% is arbitrary, I realize that, but it is a starting figure. If you can make 10% profit over the long haul from your bets at the horse races, you’re doing good. If you can show a better profit ratio, my hat is off to you. So let’s say you are extremely good at handicapping horse races and can make a profit of 20% on all your wagers over time.

To make a yearly figure of $10,000, hardly enough to support a person in the United States, unless you like the taste of cat food and don’t mind keeping your belongings in a shopping cart, then you will have to make $50,000 worth of bets in a year to reach that goal of $10,000. You can plug in your own numbers, I am just trying to show the process that I recommend you use to decide how realistic your goals are.

My own recommendation is that you first find a good system and learn how to use it making small bets that you can afford. Once you have a good idea of what you can do, then sit down and make a plan on paper using a similar process.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Did you ever think of what the three basic components of horse racing are? If you are trying to pick winners at the races, you had better know and understand each one or winning will be very difficult. Many people will be surprised to realize that one of the components is something they overlooked.

Here are the three basic components…

1. The horse. Obvious isn’t it? But what about the horse? How fast it will run today, right? But how about if it has ever accomplished the task you are asking of it today? Has it won on this surface at this distance against the same class of horses it is facing today? How long ago did that occur? Is it coming back after a layoff/rest? When you really get into it, there are so many things about the horse to be considered when comparing it with the other runners, it is amazing we ever have time for the next component.

2. The connections are what I consider the second most important component and without them meeting certain requirements, it is hard to find consistent winners. The connections, like the horse, have to demonstrate the ability to win. A jockey must have at least a 10 percent win average and ideally have own on this horse.

3. This last component may surprise some of you. It is you. The one player in the game whom you must absolutely understand to be successful is yourself. Know your strengths and weaknesses and also understand what you need to do to be a winner. Not only must you know these things, but you must also write them down. If you can’t write them down and face the truth, then it is time to find another game to play because horse racing is tough enough without depending upon a liar.

It is better to admit your weaknesses and to avoid situations that are difficult than to keep losing the same way. There is no shame in making a mistake or error in judgment, as long as you don’t keep making the same mistake over and over.

Be able to evaluate yourself and your own performance in anything you do is a great strength and will help you in any area of life, not just horse racing.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Sandy Ford-Graham

Now that some of the top sports books are offering US horse racing to their Euro markets and opening up international markets for racing from the States, it is a good time to look at some of the benefits for players outside the U.S.

Racing in the United States is different than racing in Europe and other parts of the world and therefore offers new opportunities and challenges. The opportunity for winning bets is good if you take advantage of some of the information that is available. For instance, the punters in the States have a much better source of data about the races and connections than people in some other countries have and therefore, you can find situations where a wager is very profitable.

Races are broken down into fractional times for each leg of a race. There is a time given for the quarter mile, half mile, and three quarter mile, as well as the top of the stretch and a final time. The position of each horse in the race can be determined and how far off the leader it was. This can be particularly handy in pace handicapping.

While the US races don’t offer as many betting schemes as UK bookies do, they still have many exotics like, bet 3’s, pick 4’s, pick 6’s, as well as daily doubles, rolling daily doubles (double bets on each race rather than just the first two races on the card), and of course trifectas and exactas. The straight bets play a little differently so you have to be aware of that before wagering.

When playing straight bets, be aware that place is only paid for a first or second place finish no matter how large the field is and that show is paid over the first three finishers. In the UK the place bets depend upon the size of the field, but not so across the pond.

Betting on U.S. based horseracing could be a big boon to the Sportsbooks when their players realize how much information is available to help them make their selections. The programs are extensive and the data services reasonably priced. The UK sports books that take bets on the US horse races are doing their part to help out by offering some tutorial information. Another good thing for UK based players is that the wagers are co-mingled with the pools at the U.S. tracks so you get the same odds that U.S. players get.

Check out Sandy’s Sports Betting Guide at http://www.blognow.com.au/sportsbettingguide/ and get the best deals and bonuses from the top sportsbooks. Learn how to be a smart bettor and win big with articles and helpful tips.

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How Important Are Shoe Changes and the Shoe Board When Handicapping Horse Races For Profit?
By Bill Peterson

If you are like most people who handicap horse races, you probably ignore shoe changes, other than to note when horses are wearing mud caulks and racing on an off track. Have you ever heard the old saying, “For want of a nail, the shoe was lost, for want of the shoe, the horse was lost, for want of the horse the rider was lost, for want of the rider the battle was lost and for want of the battle the kingdom was lost?”

It is meant to teach the importance of details when trying to succeed at complicated or big tasks, It means that the little things can cost a lot more than just the price of the small thing, like a nail. But there is another message here as well. It also shoes that the shoe on a horse does make a difference in the horse’s performance. How many races are won or lost in a photo finish? Though the race may be a mile long, horse races are often decided by fractions of a second.

If a shoe is lost during a race, and sometimes they are, then the race may be lost because of the missing shoe. This doesn’t just apply to thoroughbred racing, but to harness racing and quarter horse racing as well. In fact, it applies to any equine event. Most good horse racing handicappers know how important the addition of lasix or equipment changes can be, but how many pay attention to horse shoes?

One of the problems is that many people do not understand what is involved in properly shoeing a horse. When I was racing harness horses we would take a new horse into the barn and change it’s shoeing and its performance would change dramatically. The reason is that the horse’s hooves are vital to its comfort and ability.

A good farrier will not only fasten shoes to a horse’s hooves with nails or adhesive, but will also trim the hoof and make adjustments to it as well. He or she will look at the horse as it stands still and determine if a hoof is off balance and turning the foot in or out. A thousand pound animal puts an astonishing amount of pressure on its feet as it thunders down the race track. Each shock as its hoof hits the hard surface of the track is absorbed by the bone and tissue in the legs sending shock waves all the way to its back.

Now imagine how that feels and the affect it has upon the horse if it’s feet are off balance. The joints are being twisted and pain and inflammation may result. Naturally, an animal that is running and feels that will compensate by slowing down. You probably won’t know how well a horse is shod by looking at the shoe bard which tells if there has been a change in the style of shoe worn, but you may tell by its appearance in the paddock or in the race. Another clue is a dramatic change in workouts.

For instance, if you see that a horse is running with a new style of shoe and its workout times have improved, it is a good bet that a farrier has made an adjustment with positive results. Keep that in mind when trying to determine if a horse is improving.

Am I being too picky by implying that filing a hoof a little and changing the shape of a shoe can make a horse win a race? If a nail can cost a kingdom, I think it is a safe bet that a shoe can cost a race.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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Understanding Jockey Moves When Handicapping Horse Races
By Bill Peterson

One of the hardest things to figure out when you are handicapping a horse race is what the change of jockey means. Understanding jockey moves will help you to win more bets and lose less money at the races. For instance, the rider who rode the 3 in its last race is now on the 5 and the jockey who rode the 7 declines the ride so there is now a new one on the 7 and he got off the 8 and… well you get the idea. There are times when the riders stay on their mounts and you can handicap the race, but there are also times when all the rider switching will make your head swim.

Before you make a bet you want to know why these riders switched their mounts. Rider changes are usually due to the jockey, or jockey’s agent, making the change. If a trainer can get a good jock on his or her horse, they aren’t likely to make a switch, most of the time. So you can usually figure that if a horse pilot is making a switch, he or she figures to have a better chance of winning the race, or future races on that horse.

Probably the easiest switch to understand and handicap is the switch from one horse to another horse who looks better on paper. It seems quite obvious that the jockey thinks he or she will have a better chance of winning since he or she won or came close last time out with that mount.

But appearances can often be deceiving and the reason may be murkier. When a rider gets on a mount he or she may not plan on winning that race but realizes as the regular rider of the horse he or she may win several races in the future. It doesn’t happen often, but sometimes a rider will get off a horse that is in better form at the moment to get on a horse with more potential for the future.

Then there is the case where the trainer does decide that a different rider would be better suited to the horse. This is like trying to match up couples. Some jockeys are known for being better with younger horses, or hustling them out of the gate faster. Some jockeys are known for being able to rate on the front and getting the most from a front runner while there are others who specialize in closers. Knowing something about the strengths and weaknesses of the jockeys at your favorite track(s) can help a lot.

Some programs and data services now show a breakdown of which categories jockeys win in, They show how well each one fared on maidens, grass races, routes, sprints, etc. When reading them, bear in mind that it depends a lot upon how good the horses were that the jockey was riding. It may appear that a rider is great on the grass compared to the others, when in reality he or she just happened to catch a few very good turf runners.

The final bit of wisdom for picking winners and making bets is to be aware of their strengths, but like everything else in handicapping horse races, be prepared for changes. There are no absolutes and just because a rider is known for being good with maidens, it doesn’t mean he or she will win with that maiden today. The most important factor is still the horse itself and how fit and ready it is for the contest it is about to run.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

There is an old saying that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. That is certainly true at the horse races where a little knowledge can cause you to make some costly betting mistakes. Probably knowing that favorites win about a third of the races has cost many people dearly and made some false favorites.

The problem is that the public’s choice isn’t always the same. The chalk, as it is sometimes called, does win about a third of the races and completes the exacta roughly half the time, but that means it does so in all the races. That statistic doesn’t show how many win in races with short fields or how many win at 5-2 odds as opposed to 3-5 odds. If you break it down, the stats reveal that the favorite is not as likely to win in a field of 10 horses as it is in a 6 horse race.

Furthermore, the chalk isn’t as likely to win at 5-2 as it is at 3-5. Yet many people scan the toteboard and see a favorite in a race and go and bet it or use it in exotic betting and expect it to win about one race out of three. That is a recipe for financial disaster. Playing the public choice is a losing proposition over the long haul though you may experience brief times of being ahead.

If you are betting based solely on the odds without any further handicapping, consider the following;

Here are some things to avoid when playing favorites…

1. Don’t play favorites in races with fields of more than 7 horses. As field size increases, your favorite’s chances decrease exponentially

2. Don’t Bottom wheel favorites in exactas. They win roughly a third of their races and finish in the exacta about 50% of the time. That means they actually place only about once out of 6 races.

3. Don’t bet the chalk across the board. While the win bet is a losing proposition place and show are even worse because of the hidden cost of breakage (discussed in other articles I’ve written).

4. Don’t use progressive betting to try to make up for your losses when chalks fail. Some people think that there is a law of averages that if a favorite fails a certain number of times it is bound to win because of the “law of averages.” There is no law of averages and even if there was, who would enforce it?

If you must play the toteboard, then look for value in the pools by doing a little math such as the method in True Handicapping for finding live horses or even the old standby of Z betting, made popular by Dr. Ziemba many years ago.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Knowing trainer moves is important if you want to make a consistent profit. That means focusing on one track or circuit and getting totally familiar with the trainers and how they progress their horses from races for conditioning and workouts to races for paychecks and wins.

First of all, forget about playing a bunch of tracks all over the country day after day and making a profit. That isn’t real handicapping, it is gambling. If you want to gamble, go ahead and do that, but don’t for a moment think that you are going to keep making money that way.

Handicapping for a living is brutal and requires you to focus and become an expert on the track and circuit you are playing. That means knowing the trainers and how they train their horses. Each trainer has his or her own way of taking a horse and conditioning it and getting it to progress forward.

Some trainers use races to condition a horse and others use works, while some use a combination. When you see a particular trainer’s horse in a race you should know how much the jockey is going to push the horse to win and whether he or she is just out to condition the horse or win. How many horses who are not meant to win can you afford to bet on and still show a profit?

One way to know how ready a horse is and whether the trainer will be trying to win with the horse, to “Send it,” as they say, is to look at the hidden fractions in the horses last two races. You must combine this with how the trainer trains his or her horses to know whether the horse is well meant or just out for exercise.

After the first quarter fraction of the race look at the next fractions and determine if the horse made a big middle move. If the horse made a big middle move in one race and showed big early or late speed in the other of the two previous races that may well mean the trainer is testing the horse to see if it is ready to win. Those moves are classic examples of how trainers will build bottom, or endurance in their horses as well as testing them to know if they have what it takes to win at the level they are competing at.

If you see a race pattern like the one described and then see a drop in class, the next thing to do is to check the scoreboard. There are ways to compare pools to figure out if the horse is being bet by inside money. Some of the inside moves are described at True Handicapping.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

You’ve probably heard this said before, “These horses have raced so many times against each other, it’s just a matter of whose turn it is to win. They just take turns.”

On any racing circuit there are certain horses who always seem to wind up in the same races. Usually this occurs with claimers or cheap handicap races. First one horse from the group will win and then another one of the horses will win and it really does seem like the trainers are taking turns, but that usually isn’t the case. What is actually happening is that the horses are so evenly matched that a minor advantage is all it takes for one of them to win.

Many times in these races, the favorite fails. That is good news for an astute handicapper, but before we get too excited about the possibility of winning, let’s be honest with ourselves. This is one of the toughest races to handicap because they have all shown that they are capable at this level.

Another problem is that we can’t read their minds to know which one is feeling its best and which one will get a good break, etc. So how do you handicap this race? First of all, there are many times when you should pass a race like this because it really is too close to call. On the other hand, look for value. If a horse has won at this level against this group, why can’t it do it again? If the odds are right, go for it.

The truth is that the trainers and other insiders often don’t have a clue as to which horse will win a race like that, but put their horse in because they know that given a break or in the right circumstances, their horse can win.

Learn more about the truth of how insider’s use this knowledge at True Handicapping and learn how to spot a horse that will pay well and surprise a lot of other handicappers.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to Whats a Willie and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.

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