Handicap the Kentucky Derby – America’s Premiere Horse Race
Posted by: willie in Horse Racing Handicapping, Where's Willie, horse racing betting, horseracingEvery year, millions of people try to handicap the Kentucky Derby. While other great horse races in America may have bigger purses and offer some of the best racing on the planet, the Kentucky Derby is the classic American Race for three-year-olds. Traditionally contested on the first Saturday in May each year, the Derby is limited to a field of 20. However, since each horse in the race is being asked to do something it has not attempted in the past, that is more than enough entries to strain any horse racing handicapper’s brain.
The key to handicapping the first leg of the Triple Crown (the Preakness and Belmont are the other two legs) is understanding that it is a classic race at a classic distance. The Kentucky Derby is contested over 1 1/4 miles. That is farther than the 3 year old horses have raced up until then and usually, because all 20 posts are filled, it is a bigger field than they have competed against.
The changes to field size and distance make a big difference and make it difficult to project just which horses will be able to handle the distance and pandemonium. Traffic problems abound for Derby horses and getting a good trip can mean the difference between success and failure. You can’t handicap racing luck, but you can handicap breeding, form, and pace.
First look at the breeding of the horses and determine which ones are bred to go the classic distance. Some past performances now offer what is called the “Dosage Index,” for each horse, a mathematical way of determining a score based on the preferred racing distances of the horses ancestors. The lower the dosage, the more likely the horse will handle the mile and a quarter.
Many times when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, would be prognosticators focus on speed figures. While not completely irrelevant, they do not weigh as heavily as dosage, pace, and form when finding a good bet. Once you have determined which horses are bred for the distance, the next task is to determine which horses are rounding into form at the right time. In horse racing, timing is crucial and trainers try to have their horses physical form peaking on the first Saturday in May. Look at the races leading up to the Derby and try to determine how the horse has progressed and what it may have left.
Pace is a big part of the race as well. Very few front runners have won the Derby, but horses who have both tactical speed and a good late kick fare very well. Because traffic problems abound and it is sometimes necessary to weave through the pack or to go wide in the stretch, runners need to be able to shift gears. While the last Derby winner, Mine That Bird, was able to slip through on the rail with a very skillful and lucky pilot in Calvin Borel, such trips are rare.
The last bit of advice on the Kentucky Derby that I would like to share with you is that there are several kinds of races for true horse players. There are playing races and watching races. While the Derby is interesting it is usually not a good race to make money on unless you have a crystal ball. Watch it and enjoy it but save the major portion of your bankroll for races that are easier to handicap with more manageable fields and horses who have proven they can do what is being asked of them.
If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill’s handicapping store.
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