A lot of you may have been asking yourselves over the last 6 months, “Where’s Willie? Horse Racing Handicapping tips are hard enough to come by without Willie taking a powder!”

I am sorry for that, but I have been putting up what I consider to be helpful articles written by some of the best handicappers I know. Believe it or not, for a little while, I was Hollywood Willie, not the Hollywood dog track, now known as Mardi Gras, for reasons that escape me. Also not the Hollywood horse track in California, though I did visit it while out there in California.

No, I mean the real deal, Hollywood California where I strolled through a few movies and TV shows as an extra and flirted with fame.

But now, it is back to the East Coast and handicapping horse races, both harness and thoroughbred, and wondering about the fate of greyhound racing.

Here is my latest tip on handicapping and betting on horse races. It is all about the money. I have been doing a study and in the last three weeks I have an ROI of around 40% and a strike rate of 29% and I have not cracked open a form or program. I have just been following the money and betting when a horse is live.

I use the BETPAD interface and that is why I have started advertising it on my site. It is very helpful for tracking the money in ways that are taught by Bill Peterson, et. al.

So the thoguht for the season as we gear up for Aqueduct and Santa Anita is, follow the money and only bet alive horse, and of course, lay off the favorites, too many are getting stiffed lately.

Author: Bill Peterson

Handicapping harness races is a matter of determining how each horse will perform based upon past performances and projected times and pace.  The introduction of speed figures has helped some handicappers while others still rely on raw times and quarter fractions.  Shippers pose a particularly thorny problem because we are forced to use their performances from another track to try to determine how they will do on a new surface and oval. 

Speed figures, while not perfect, are adjusted for surface condition, variants, post position, and the track itself.  It is possible to compare a horse shipping from another track because the times are adjusted accordingly.  We used to have to get our lists of tracks out and figure if one track was faster or slower than another. Some people are still using that method.  Picking winners is no more profitable, however, because everyone has access to those speed figures.  Also, like all human inventions, speed figures aren’t perfect. 

Not only that, but though Standardbred horses are very reliable and consistent, they don’t always adapt to a new track as well and may not perform well on the new surface.  So how can you use times or speed figures and make a profit betting on harness races? 

First of all, do not take a short price on any shipper.  I don’t care how good the horse looks on paper, if it hasn’t proven what it can do on today’s track and surface, be skeptical and demand a good price or skip the race. 

Secondly, if you can watch the horse work over the track, then by all means, do it.  If not, watch it carefully while it scores before the race.  Look for smooth action and see how well it handles the turns, particularly on a half mile or five eighths mile track. 

Finally, don’t ever bet on a race where you are comparing one shipper to another unless you get a very good price.  Talk about comparing apples and oranges!  A race with one shipper is tough enough but a race with two shippers who appear to be contenders is chaos.

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/horse-racing-articles/harness-racing-handicapping-systems-tips-using-speed-figures-or-times-for-shippers-1378197.html

About the Author:
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics.  I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner.  Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good.  If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps harness races just go to    http://williewins.homestead.com/harness_racing_system.html    and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper.  He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to    http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html   , Bill’s handicapping store.