Using Post Position Statistics to Make Money Playing Horses
Posted by: willie in Horse Racing Handicapping, horse racing betting, horse racing systems, horseracingBill Peterson
If you pay attention to your local or favorite track’s statistics you’ve probably noticed that horses racing from certain post positions are more likely to win. For a small number of races, that number isn’t very significant, but the larger the sample, the more important it becomes.
Depending upon where the starting gate is positioned, horses racing from inside post positions at a mile or over sometimes have a significant advantage because as they race into the first turn, they are already on the rail and have a much shorter route. The less ground they have to cover, the more likely they are to win.
Many tracks publish their post position stats so this is not a secret. The question then becomes, if the inside posts have a better chance of winning, is that factored into the odds? In other words, when the crowd bets, do they take into account the post position and the amount of action any horse receives reflects its post advantage or disadvantage.
If the crowd isn’t paying attention and lets this slip by them, it becomes an advantageous situation for betting. On the other hand, if a horse deserves to be at 5-1 factoring in the post bias, then post position becomes moot as a betting factor.
It takes time and experience, but after a while you will be able to see if the crowd is betting a horse based on post position. My own observation has been that it is considered, but rarely enough. If there is a 19% takeout on the win pool and you can gain as much as 5% of an edge just based on betting ones and twos when they are decent horses, then you are closer to making a profit from the races.
Also, if you like a horse but it has an outside post, taking into account the difficulty of breaking from that post and winning may help to eliminate a few costly losses. The name of the game is reducing that takeout percentage to 0% and then figuring out how to get into the plus column. That is no small task and makes it feel like we handicappers are always breaking from the extreme outside post, if you get my drift.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store
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