Using Early Fractions and Final Times to Handicap Horse Races – Part Two
Posted by: willie in Where's WillieIn Part One of this series I explained that a few ticks (a tick being one fifth of a second) at the beginning of a race can amount to a lot more at the end of the race. A horse who runs 23:2 in the first quarter mile rather than the 24 it would have been more comfortable with, may actually finish the race a full second or more slower than it would have if it could have set its own fractions. The point is that early pace can have a dramatic effect upon the final time. If you think a horse will run a few ticks faster in the early stages than it did in its last race, you have to deduct more than a few ticks from what you think the final time will be.
No discussion of pace and times would be complete without talking about track variants and models, and of course, track biases. Track variants are just the differences in how fast a track is from day to day. Many things can change how fast horses can run on a track, moisture is the first factor. With the advent of poly tracks that may have been negated somewhat, but is still a consideration. How the track is groomed and how much sunlight has hit the track as well as ambient temperature all make a difference.
The track that $10,000 claimers easily ran 6 furlongs in 1:10 flat yesterday may find the same class of horses struggling to run 6 furlongs in 1:11 today. Speed figures and variants are calculated by comparing races from day to day and then making adjustment to final times and fractions. So if you handicap a race today and want to compare fractions to determine pace, like we did in Part One, then you must also compare variants and make adjustments.
Rather than do all my own calculations, I use one of the popular past performance providers whose pace figures seem to hold up rather well, though they are not infallible. Horse racing handicapping is a time consuming business when done properly so it helps to have reliable sources of information that save time.
I also use their stats and track models to know what has been winning at the distance. For instance, if I see that almost all 6 furlong events are won by a horse that manages to be two lengths or less from the leader at the half mile call, I start to look at horses that figure to be able to position themselves there in order to be close enough to strike in the stretch.
Other than the other handicapping factors that I use to eliminate some horses from consideration, I look at the pace scenario that I expect and then at the horses who figure to be there. The question always boils down to this, What will the early pace scenario be in this race, i.e., fast or slow, and how will that affect each horse in the race?”
Looking at pace figures and running styles, I try to place each horse throughout the race and then, based on that, I determine which runners will have a chance to win in the stretch run. Obviously, pace handicapping is not an exact science and many other handicapping factors come into play, but if you can adjust pace figures and determine a pace scenario, then compare it to the race model for winners at the class and distance, you can very often narrow your choices down to one or two horses.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.
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