By Bill Peterson

As this title implies, this article is all about making a profit on the horse races, betting on horse races, and shirts. If you wear a shirt, or know someone who does, if you are interested in making a profit from betting on horse races, or know someone who is, then this article is definitely for you. On the other hand, if you just like to have fun, this article is also for you.

I have been going to the horse races since the original chariot races in the hippodrome, so I know a thing or two about hippos. But, seriously, if you want to make a profit on the horse races you will have to take it very seriously and work very hard. There are no shortcuts to consistent profits. Along the way you may lose some money along with your sanity, and perhaps, even a shirt or two.

I once had someone make me a very nice shirt. This person also did not approve of my lifestyle, i.e., going to the race track and betting on horse races. I was once at the track and got so wrapped up in what I was doing, that I stripped down to my tee shirt and left the very nice, custom made, shirt on the back of a chair, never to be seen again.

While I lost my shirt at the race track, someone else, shall we say, acquired my shirt at the race track, but then it became his or her shirt, sort of. The point is that I was enjoying the daylights out of what I was doing and got so wrapped up in it that I forgot my shirt. I also forgot all my troubles and cares and relaxed, something that many people could definitely use in these troubled financial times, as they are euphemistically called by the politicians and CEOs.

When I came home without the shirt, but with a little more money than I started with, the reviews were mixed, but overall unfavorable. While a little more money in the till was always a crowd pleaser, the loss of the cherished garment didn’t go over well. Domestic tranquility faded in the stretch and the result is that I still go to the race track, but no longer have a custom made shirt maker waiting back at the barn.

The point is that you have to get so wrapped up in horse racing handicapping and betting that you will have to make some sacrifices along the way. If you are considering making a go of betting on horse races, you better think about it long and hard before you go down that path. While shirts, even nice ones, are not all that important in the grand scheme of things, people who will make you one are not easy to find. Handicapping and betting are hard to do.

Most people try it and decide it is more work and sacrifice than it is worth. They have an occasional outing at the race track for fun and enjoy the diversion from their cares and the stress of life. They go home with their shirts and usually manage to hang onto the shirt maker as well. It is a path that seems to be quite popular. Being a professional handicapper often means following what the poet Frost called, “The road less traveled…” in his famous poem, “The Road Not Taken.”

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Speed handicapping is probably the most popular form of handicapping horse races. One of the nice things about speed handicapping is that it is so easy. The figures are posted in the form and because of modern methods, they are usually pretty uniform. I have found they don’t hold up as well for races over one and one eighth miles and under five and a half furlongs, but that may just be my own personal experience.

Overall, if you are looking for the fastest horse in a race, a good place to start is the speed ratings. Unfortunately, that very fact makes it difficult to make money on horses that have proven they are the fastest horse. When you are handicapping horse races for profit, being right is important, but making a profit is more important.

Being able to scan a form and pick a few races where one horse stands out as the fastest horse may impress your friends, but being able to find one or two horses that do not stand out, but may still win at a nice price, is what the real pros do, day in and day out.

Therefore, there are several ways to make money off speed figures. One way is to find a race where the horse with the best figs. has a few questionable factors, such as moving up against classier horses, changing distance, or surface, etc. There is always the bounce factor to consider, as well.

It is better to find a race where the speed isn’t so clear and you may get a price on a horse that will benefit from a pace scenario that favors its style of running. Though the horse may not have the best speed figures, it is still a good bet because it is at longer odds and the horse with the best figures doesn’t always win. Pace plays a major role in most races. Another factor that can change the expected outcome of a race is equipment changes and horses that are improving or declining.

The point is that it is hard to make money betting the horse with the best speed figures, but easier, though still not easy, to make a profit from your horse racing handicapping, by betting on the horse that will surprise at a price.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Handicapping horse races can be a lot of work if you get into it in depth and try hard to make a profit. As many people find, there is no easy road to riches when betting on horse races. You can use a simple system if you just want to be a recreational bettor and have a nice day at the races and perhaps make a profit.

But if you are seriously trying to make money at it, you will have to work hard and learn your craft, and even then, it may not be enough. There are people who grow weary from trying to handicap the races who try to find a way to just use the odds and to manipulate their bets in such a way that they make a profit.

Years ago, Dr. Z showed us that he could make a profit from place and show bets just using some simple calculations and by following the pools off the tote board. I think it would be safe to say that Dr. Z., a mathematics professor, was a mathematical genius. It would also be safe to say that he not only proved it could be done, but by publishing his system, so that it was available to many people, also made it very unlikely that you can do it today. The problem is that now too many people know how to do it.

That ruins the odds and also makes it difficult to get that last minute bet in without seeing the odds make their last flip down and wiping out any advantage you may have had. Across the pond, in great Britain, where bookmakers still make odds, it is possible to structure bets according to a system and to make a profit, if you are good and the book maker isn’t paying attention, but bookmakers rarely let you get away with that very often. They are trying to make a profit, too.

My own experience has been that there isn’t a way that I have found to consistently make a profit strictly by watching the odds board. However, I have found that certain discrepancies in the pools show that the stable is betting its own horse. That is the only gold I’ve found lately on the tote board, but just knowing who is betting their own horse can be a real gem, if you think about that.

I’m not saying there isn’t a way to make a profit from betting the odds board, just that I haven’t found it in all my years of staring at them.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

In Part One of this series I explained that a few ticks (a tick being one fifth of a second) at the beginning of a race can amount to a lot more at the end of the race. A horse who runs 23:2 in the first quarter mile rather than the 24 it would have been more comfortable with, may actually finish the race a full second or more slower than it would have if it could have set its own fractions. The point is that early pace can have a dramatic effect upon the final time. If you think a horse will run a few ticks faster in the early stages than it did in its last race, you have to deduct more than a few ticks from what you think the final time will be.

No discussion of pace and times would be complete without talking about track variants and models, and of course, track biases. Track variants are just the differences in how fast a track is from day to day. Many things can change how fast horses can run on a track, moisture is the first factor. With the advent of poly tracks that may have been negated somewhat, but is still a consideration. How the track is groomed and how much sunlight has hit the track as well as ambient temperature all make a difference.

The track that $10,000 claimers easily ran 6 furlongs in 1:10 flat yesterday may find the same class of horses struggling to run 6 furlongs in 1:11 today. Speed figures and variants are calculated by comparing races from day to day and then making adjustment to final times and fractions. So if you handicap a race today and want to compare fractions to determine pace, like we did in Part One, then you must also compare variants and make adjustments.

Rather than do all my own calculations, I use one of the popular past performance providers whose pace figures seem to hold up rather well, though they are not infallible. Horse racing handicapping is a time consuming business when done properly so it helps to have reliable sources of information that save time.

I also use their stats and track models to know what has been winning at the distance. For instance, if I see that almost all 6 furlong events are won by a horse that manages to be two lengths or less from the leader at the half mile call, I start to look at horses that figure to be able to position themselves there in order to be close enough to strike in the stretch.

Other than the other handicapping factors that I use to eliminate some horses from consideration, I look at the pace scenario that I expect and then at the horses who figure to be there. The question always boils down to this, What will the early pace scenario be in this race, i.e., fast or slow, and how will that affect each horse in the race?”

Looking at pace figures and running styles, I try to place each horse throughout the race and then, based on that, I determine which runners will have a chance to win in the stretch run. Obviously, pace handicapping is not an exact science and many other handicapping factors come into play, but if you can adjust pace figures and determine a pace scenario, then compare it to the race model for winners at the class and distance, you can very often narrow your choices down to one or two horses.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Pace and times are a complicated subject and I couldn’t possibly put everything you need to know to be a successful pace handicapper into this one article. I have been studying pace and handicapping for years and I am still learning. However, just understanding the relationship between early fractions and final times is a good place to start when learning horse racing handicapping.

How fast a horse runs at the start of a race has a lot to do with how it will finish the race. You also have to factor into that equation the track variant and running style of the race. For the sake of this article, we’ll leave the variant out of our handicapping. I’ll write about that in part two.

There are different running styles and of course there is also a jockey who may try to change a horse’s running style and natural pace. For instance, if a horse is a closer that likes to start a race at an easy pace and then gradually build up speed, putting in a good final rush at the end of the race, the jockey may decide that just won’t do and pushes the horse to move faster at the beginning. This may or may not work out well. It will depend upon how well the horse adapts to the faster early fractions and how fast the other runners run in the final fractions.

The important aspect for the handicapper to note and use to his or her advantage is whether this tactic was used on a horse in its last race. If a horse was urged to run faster than it wanted to in the early stages, or was throttled back in the early stages, it may have a negative impact so the animal’s last race is not a good indication of its current form or ability. When I am looking through the past performances and see a line that is out of character compared to the rest, I know something was up and must try to determine why the jockey rode in this fashion.

Let’s take a 6 furlong event as our horse racing handicapping example and look at the fractions to try to understand the relationship of early pace to late pace and overall race times. First of all, let’s say this is a five horse field. The favorite, let’s call him Bob, an early speedster, shows a first quarter of 24 in its last race, a 48 in the half mile call and a 1:10 flat for the final time. No other horse in the race shows a 1:10 so the crowd figures Bob is the fastest horse in the race.

A closer look at the Bob’s lines indicates that he ran on the lead, unopposed in his last race, 2 lengths ahead of the next horse. Bob got loose in the race and managed to set the fractions and run his own race. He may not be so lucky in this race however, because Sam, another early speedster is also in the race. Sam wasn’t so lucky in his last race. He teamed up in an early speed duel and ran the fractions in 23:2, 46:4, finishing his last race in 1:10:4 and losing by four lengths. Both Bob and Sam are probably going to hook up in this race and if the jockeys can’t keep them on a sensible pace, they will use most of their energy in a speed battle.

If that happens and they run side by side and set the same fractions that Sam set in his last battle, Bob will probably not be able to manage another 1:10 flat unless the track is a heavily speed favoring track. If Sam’s jockey can rate his horse just behind Bob but push Bob along as Bob tries to maintain a lead like he did in his last race, Sam may be able to win.

For instance, if Bob feels the pressure from Sam in the first quarter and they go 23:2, but then Sam’s rider manages to back him off for an easier second quarter, of say 48:1, while Bob, still feeling the heat from Sam races three lengths ahead of him and runs a 47:3, then Bob is going to be mighty tired entering the stretch, whereas Sam might have a little left in the tank to put him away. With that softer second quarter mile, Sam may be able to come close to Bob’s earlier mark of 1:10 flat. Even if he misses it by a tick or two, Bob will not be around to challenge him.

The point is that racing a few ticks faster earlier in the race can amount to a lot more at the end of the race. Going the first quarter in 23:2 instead of 24, and the second in 47:3 instead of 48 may amount to a finish in 1:12! The difference isn’t always the same but must be calculated exponentially. A tick in the first quarter can be 3 or 4 at the end of the race.

Of course, all of this is hypothetical based on what you think each jockey and horse will do in the situation. There are still three other horses in the race who must be reckoned with. In this case, if you think that Sam’s jockey will do just what I’ve outlined and will actually have the better horse at the end, the next thing to look for is any horse in the field that will benefit from that pace duel and the softening of Bob.

Finding a horse that will be coming from off the pace and closing in the stretch may put you on a longer priced winner or a horse to play with Sam in an exacta. In this scenario, the favorite may well run out of the money or at least miss the top two spots. It is a golden opportunity to make some money from good horse racing handicapping.

Now the disclaimer, don’t always expect horses to run the way you think they’ll run. Horse races are hard fought sporting events. Jockeys must make split second decisions, many things can happen during a race that will alter the result.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/ and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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