Handicapping Maiden Races For Horses Dropping Or Going Up in Class
Posted by: willie in Where's WillieThere is a saying that some people use when handicapping maiden horse races. “The class ladder only goes one way in maiden races.” What they mean is that once a horse drops in class, particularly from the maiden special weight (MSW) ranks to the claimers, it can’t move back up into the MSW races and win. That just isn’t true. I have seen many horses drop from the maiden special weight ranks into a maiden claimer and then move back up to an MSW and win. I don’t know what the statistics are, but anecdotally, it seems to be happening more and more lately.
The logic behind the statement that the class ladder only goes one way is based on an idea about maiden horses that many handicappers seem to share. The notion is that maidens are pretty transparent and what you see, as far as form and ability, is what you get. This is true many times and that is why a high percentage of favorites win maiden races.
But before we run to the windows to bet all favorites in maiden races to win, here is another thought, maidens, being young and developing, are also subject to change and change quickly. This second thought seems to contradict our earlier one about the transparency of maidens. It does, but then again, maidens can be quite confusing to handicap. Picking winners in races for maidens is just as difficult as in any other class of races.
Because they are young and still developing, their trainers are experimenting with equipment changes, training changes, jockey changes… get the idea? Any one of those changes can have a dramatic impact on the horse’s performance. Therefore, if a trainer makes an adjustment and the horse seems to improve dramatically, he or she is likely to take the horse out of the lower grade race and move it back into a higher grade, even going from claimers to special weights. The success of that move will depend upon many things including, the strength of the competition, the ability of the trainer and jockey, and good old racing luck.
When I am handicapping races and see a horse moving back into the MSW races after sojourn in the claimers, I am always suspicious and look closely at the horse and its workouts. If the trainer is competent and a good jockey is on the horse, I have to figure that there should be an improvement in the runner’s performance. When you encounter these class movers, be careful. While the drop from MSW to claimers may be the biggest class drop in racing, the class ladder still goes both ways.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.
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