By Bill Peterson

When horse racing handicapping, many of us have a tendency to be very enthusiastic about our choices. We read the lines of a horse and decide it has an excellent chance of winning and will also go off at a good price. There’s nothing wrong with being excited about a bet, after all, it’s why we do this, other than the profit we manage to eke out.

It is one thing to be enthusiastic, however, it is a different matter to be careless or over zealous. One of the golden rules of making a living as a gambler, and in particular, a horse player, is that you have to care about each bet but not to the extent where you lose sight of your main objective or fall apart if it loses.

If you handicap a race and find what you think is an excellent prospect, there is the tendency to fall in love with the bet. That can be very dangerous to your bankroll. It will cloud your judgment. Another pitfall of handicapping is to get too emotional about your picks. Don’t take it personally when your horse loses or you have a bad day, it’s not the universe working against you, just the usual rhythm of winning and losing we all must endure.

When we get emotional and think a runner can’t lose, we may lose sight of the details and that can be disastrous. For instance, if you are so sure a horse is a guaranteed winner, you may miss the fact that it is wearing front wraps for the first time (a red flag). You may also miss the fact that it is sweating profusely and washed out, a very bad sign.

You may also not take the time to check the pools to make sure there is some inside money on your horse, or if you do and the answer is negative, you may still bet the horse because you are so sure it will win. These are all details but they are what mean the difference between a 10% profit, long range, or a loss until you get back on track, so to speak. Horseracing handicapping for profit is hard enough, but if you start overlooking the details, it is impossible. As always, you must use a systematic approach.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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I know what you’re thinking, “What does pie crust have to do with horse racing and handicapping and gambling and most of all, Willie?”

Truth is, I love pie and every year, my New Year’s resolution is, “Eat more pie.”

By Wil Langford

It’s that time of year again, when our thoughts turn to holiday decorating and cooking. There are many recipes for the holidays, but one food item above all others seems to symbolize the fall, holiday season and that is pie. There are recipes for no crust pie, but for many people a pie without a crust is like a day without sunshine.

While pastry shells and packaged crust mixes are convenient, nothing beats a home made crust. On the other hand, for some people, making pie crust is an anxiety producing thought right up there with parallel parking and left hand turns. Never fear, there are a few basic suggestions and steps that will have you making your own great pie crust in no time.

There are four basic ingredients in any pie crust. They are, flour, that adds the bulk to the crust, shortening (fat), that makes the crust flaky and adds flavor, liquid that binds the dough and makes it workable, and salt for seasoning and to make it brown. That’s it, just four simple ingredients. You can make some substitutions, in the interest of personal taste or health, as you’ll see below.

The tricky thing about pie crust is that it is just so diabolically simple. Just a few ingredients and little preparation time make it seem so easy, but like many simple things, it still takes some attention to detail to get it right. Here are some instructions for two different pie crusts. The first one is really easy and doesn’t even require rolling. It is ideal for a single crust pie, like pumpkin pie.

Easy One Crust Pie Dough

INGREDIENTS:
(makes two large pies)
4 cups all-purpose flour ( I prefer King Arthur unbleached flour and have been using it for years)
2 cups butter or shortening (you can also use butter flavored shortening, margarine, or lard*)
*Before we go any farther, let’s talk about lard. I know it is not as popular or politically correct as it once was, but in my opinion it makes the best crust. On the other hand, you can still make a very good crust with any of the alternatives and perhaps you won’t ruffle any feathers if you share your pie with other people who may have strong feelings about the source of lard or its health effects.

I also recommend chilling the shortening or whatever you use as a fat. Chilling the shortening and liquid is one of those suggestions I mentioned that make crust so much easier.

1 tablespoon white sugar (once again, you can substitute a more healthful sugar like raw cane sugar or organic sugar)
1 teaspoon salt (sea salt works well, too)
1/2 cup ice water
1 egg
1 tablespoon distilled white vinegar

DIRECTIONS
In a large bowl, mix flour, shortening, sugar and salt.
Add ice water, vinegar and egg. Beat to combine but don’t overdo it.
There is no need to roll this dough out, it can easily be pushed into a pie plate and flattened to fit inside the pan and conform to the sides of the pan. That makes it ideal for a holiday favorite like one crust pumpkin pie.

Our second pie crust is a basic pie crust that can be rolled out to form flat pieces of dough that can then be placed in a pan and pushed into shape to make the bottom layer of a crust as well as being placed on top of the pie. If you use it as a top layer, be sure to vent with a few slits near the center of the pie.

Ingredients:
2 cups all-purpose flour
1 teaspoon salt
1 cup shortening
1/2 cup water

Once gain, I prefer unbleached flour like King Arthur and please be sure to chill the fat and liquid. Another good idea is to chill your rolling pin. I put mine right in the freezer for half an hour. You may also use a glass wine or soda bottle and chill it or even fill it with ice water. If you use a glass bottle, DO NOT PUT IT IN THE FREEZER because it may burst if the water freezes. Just refrigerate it or fill with chilled water.

A chilled rolling pin or bottle is much less likely to stick to the crust. Sifting a light layer of flour onto the crust as you roll it out will also help to keep it from sticking.

DIRECTIONS
In a large bowl, combine flour and salt. Cut in shortening until mixture resembles coarse crumbs. (You can cut it in with a knife or spatula. Some people like to work it with two butter knives.)
Stir in water until mixture forms a ball. (A little flour on your hands will help to keep the dough from sticking to them.) Divide dough in half, and shape into balls. Wrap in plastic, and refrigerate for 4 hours or overnight. If you don’t have the time to wait for the dough to chill overnight, place it in the refrigerator as long as you can and use chilled utensils to roll it out.

Next, roll out your dough on a floured counter or cutting board. Don’t over work it. Place a thin layer of flour on the dough and work it from the center rolling in all directions to form a flat round layer of dough like a large pancake. You can then shape it into the bottom of the pan and repeat the process on the second ball of dough for the top crust. Put a little flour on your hands and lift the dough gently and place on top of the pie. Be sure to make a few slits for vents. You may also pinch the dough together all along the edge to seal the top and bottom crust together. You may use a fork or knife to give it a nice finished look.

Some people place foil around the outside edge of the crusts to prevent burning of the edges.
That’s it, two recipes for crust that take very little time to prepare and will have you creating homemade masterpieces in your kitchen. For more holiday dessert ideas including pumpkin pie, pumpkin bread, pumpkin seeds and other recipes, go to Favorite Things.

Wil Langford, is a pie lover who enjoys holiday desserts and family time.

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By Bill Peterson

The trifecta wheel is one of the most popular bets in horse racing handicapping. The lure of the bet is that you never know how much the trifecta will pay because you don’t know which other runners will complete the other two legs of the exotic wager. It seems so simple, just pick one good horse and wheel it and you may hit the whole trifecta.

While other serious handicappers pore over their programs trying to eliminate horses and develop complicated part key wheel bets, you simply pick one good horse and wheel it. Of course, upon closer inspection, there are some drawbacks to the wheel bet.

For once thing, it is costly. In a seven horse race a $1 wheel bet costs $30. In an 8 horse race the cost is $42. That is a lot for scratch for a risky trifecta bet. Let’s say you decide to have a nice relaxing day at the track and don’t want to work too hard at handicapping. You decide to simply go to the track and wheel the favorite in the tri in each race.

The average field size is eight horses so you are spending $42 per race. There are ten races on the card and the favorite wins 30% (about average for winning favorites) of the races. It is an average day and the favorite does indeed win 30% of the ten races, in other words, you hit three out of ten tris.

You spent $420 on your ten bets. Now ask yourself this, what does the average trifecta pay when the favorite wins? Not very much, right? The answer is simple, there are a lot of people who don’t want to work, or think too hard at the races. They want a nice easy day and they want to cash trifecta tickets. So many people wheel the favorites in the tris and the result is that they all lose in the long run.

It is almost impossible to make a profit when wheeling favorites in the trifecta. So the answer to the question, when does wheeling a horse in the trifecta make good handicapping sense, is certainly not when it’s the favorite!

On the other hand, since wheeling the favorite is such a popular bet, and therefore an underlay, wheeling any other horse with a reasonable chance of winning may be a good bet. My advice is to use a good method of eliminating horses who aren’t meant to win (such as a toteboard method that spots live horses) and then wheel one of the other contenders that is live on the board.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html – Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Did you ever consider betting on the jockeys instead of the horses? Some people have favorite jockeys or trainers and will just flat bet their favorite. If you do manage to make a profit betting like that, it will probably be a small profit. Here is an angle that is based on that idea, but goes a little farther to narrow it down to more advantageous circumstances.

If you go to a race track regularly or follow a few through simulcasts, you probably have some opinions about the jockeys. You may have some pretty strong opinions about which ones are good and which ones are bad. You may also know their strengths and weaknesses and have opinions about when to bet them.

Some race tracks or horse racing data services offer a breakdown of how each jockey fares in different kinds of races. While a jockey may appear to do very well in long turf races, he or she may not do nearly as well in sprints on the dirt. Some riders are good at getting a horse out of the gate quickly and hustling their mount to the front, while others do better coming from off the pace.

Using this data, it is possible to label a jockey just as they label the running styles of horses. For instance, if jockey A does well with early speed runners on the dirt, you may label him or her ESD. Keeping a list of jockeys with each one’s label will enable you to match up jockeys with horses and then to compare good matchups to the odds. You will be comparing the winning style of the jockey with the running style of the horse he or she is riding.

The angle here is to find value in your bets by identifying situations where a jockey will perform better with a horse than is expected because he or she has a runner that matches his or her style. To make this work I would suggest that we also need to find a race model that suits their style. If sprints for 3 year old fillies are usually won by early speedsters and jockey A is on a filly with early speed who is going off at generous odds, perhaps he or she is worth a bet.

The key here is to be able to determine what fair odds are for that runner based on the rider’s ability and then to compare the fair odds with the actual tote odds. It will require note keeping, but after a while you may be surprised to see patterns emerging and actually find some good bets.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html – Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Sight handicapping has its benefits and one of them is that it is based on the here and now rather than past performances. It can point out horses that are live, or in other words, meant to win. Picking winners can be made easier with a little educated observation before the race. One problem with handicapping races based on past performances is that horses are living and breathing animals whose physical conditions change constantly.

Therefore, while it is helpful to know what a runner was capable of in the recent past, it is more important to know what condition it is in on race day. Many people do not even watch the post parade or look at the horses before they bet on them. Others watch them in the post parade then return to their handicapping, socializing, or get in line to make a bet.

What they may be missing is a warm up that is significant. Not all horses are prepared for the race in the same way. Some are merely led around by the lead out’s pony and never allowed to really get moving. Others are released by the lead out at the jockey’s instruction and the horse is then warmed up more briskly.

There can be several reasons for this. First of all, if it is the first time the jockey has ridden the horse, he or she may want to get a feel for it and also build some kind of communication with it. Other horses, particularly older horses, may need to warm up to get stiff joints loosened, just as older people sometimes need a bit of walking or moving around to get limbered up.

Allowing a horse to breeze in the backstretch can also settle a horse down if it is getting too anxious waiting for the race.

Whenever I see a horse warming up in the backstretch, particularly a fast blow out type warmup, I consider it a good sign. It shows the jockey’s intent to try to get the most out of the runner in the upcoming race and also that he or she is tuning in to the horse to check it out before the gate opens. These are all positive signs and a fast warm up in the backstretch just prior to the race should be considered a positive indication. Keep track of horses that warm up in this way and refer to your notes and you will soon see that fast warmups equal horses that are meant to win.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Progressive betting schemes have been around for a long time, not just in horse racing but in many forms of gambling. As far as I know, regular progressive betting schemes don’t work, but there are some variations that can be profitable.

Let’s talk about a popular progressive betting scheme that sometimes pays off, but in the long run is a loser. I mention this one first because it has been around a long time, but keeps getting used. This is simplicity itself. Bet on a minimum bet like $2 to win, and if you lose, increase your next bet enough to recoup your loss of $2 plus to make a profit on your next bet. So if you lose $2 and then bet on a wager that will return $4 for every $2 bet, then you must wager $4 in order to make a profit. A $4 wager will return $8 which will cover the original bet of 2 + the next bet of 4 ( a total of $6 wagered) and return a $2 profit.

Sounds simple and like a big hit, right? Wrong. If you don’t win on the second bet, you then have to bet enough to cover both previous bets, plus your third bet, in order to recover your losses and then you have to bet a little more to make a profit. Because it is very long to go on a losing streak in any form of gambling, one long streak will usually wipe out your bankroll. That being said, there are still people out there trying to make this work.

Progressive betting is a bear and will devour your bankroll quicker than you can say, “Tapped out.”

Parlay betting is a form of betting based on the idea of using the track’s money to win big. The idea is that when you win a bet, you then wager all of it on your next bet. This is a bet not unlike the daily double in some respects and can lead to some nice scores. On drawback of this form of betting compared to the daily double is that both halves of your bet are subject to the track takeout and breakage, whereas with a daily double bet, you only pay breakage and the take on one bet.

The thing about gambling that we all learn sooner or later is that it is very “streaky.” Winning and losing streaks occur. Capitalizing on a winning streak with parlay betting and limiting losses with base bets does make some sense, but when you lose everything you’ve just won on your next bet, it can get discouraging.

One of my favorite books about horse racing was written by Sam “the Genius” Lewin. In “How to Win at the Races: The Education of a Horseplayer,” he explains how to spread your winnings around among your other bets for the day. For instance, let’s say there are four horses that you plan on betting on. You go to the track with $80 and plan on betting $20 on each horse. If you win $120 on the first horse, divide that money three ways and place an equal amount to win on each of the next three. This is a good method of increasing your bets when you are winning and even if you lose the next bet or two, you’re not tapped out for the day and you are making a bigger bet than you could have made with your original bankroll.

That is the only kind of progressive betting I would recommend. A variation would be to put a little of your winnings aside from the first bet and divide a smaller amount among your next bets. No matter how you look at it, betting on horses and money management always come down to the same thing, you need to be systematic and disciplined to make a profit.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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