Understanding Jockey Moves When Handicapping Horse Races
By Bill Peterson

One of the hardest things to figure out when you are handicapping a horse race is what the change of jockey means. Understanding jockey moves will help you to win more bets and lose less money at the races. For instance, the rider who rode the 3 in its last race is now on the 5 and the jockey who rode the 7 declines the ride so there is now a new one on the 7 and he got off the 8 and… well you get the idea. There are times when the riders stay on their mounts and you can handicap the race, but there are also times when all the rider switching will make your head swim.

Before you make a bet you want to know why these riders switched their mounts. Rider changes are usually due to the jockey, or jockey’s agent, making the change. If a trainer can get a good jock on his or her horse, they aren’t likely to make a switch, most of the time. So you can usually figure that if a horse pilot is making a switch, he or she figures to have a better chance of winning the race, or future races on that horse.

Probably the easiest switch to understand and handicap is the switch from one horse to another horse who looks better on paper. It seems quite obvious that the jockey thinks he or she will have a better chance of winning since he or she won or came close last time out with that mount.

But appearances can often be deceiving and the reason may be murkier. When a rider gets on a mount he or she may not plan on winning that race but realizes as the regular rider of the horse he or she may win several races in the future. It doesn’t happen often, but sometimes a rider will get off a horse that is in better form at the moment to get on a horse with more potential for the future.

Then there is the case where the trainer does decide that a different rider would be better suited to the horse. This is like trying to match up couples. Some jockeys are known for being better with younger horses, or hustling them out of the gate faster. Some jockeys are known for being able to rate on the front and getting the most from a front runner while there are others who specialize in closers. Knowing something about the strengths and weaknesses of the jockeys at your favorite track(s) can help a lot.

Some programs and data services now show a breakdown of which categories jockeys win in, They show how well each one fared on maidens, grass races, routes, sprints, etc. When reading them, bear in mind that it depends a lot upon how good the horses were that the jockey was riding. It may appear that a rider is great on the grass compared to the others, when in reality he or she just happened to catch a few very good turf runners.

The final bit of wisdom for picking winners and making bets is to be aware of their strengths, but like everything else in handicapping horse races, be prepared for changes. There are no absolutes and just because a rider is known for being good with maidens, it doesn’t mean he or she will win with that maiden today. The most important factor is still the horse itself and how fit and ready it is for the contest it is about to run.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

There is an old saying that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. That is certainly true at the horse races where a little knowledge can cause you to make some costly betting mistakes. Probably knowing that favorites win about a third of the races has cost many people dearly and made some false favorites.

The problem is that the public’s choice isn’t always the same. The chalk, as it is sometimes called, does win about a third of the races and completes the exacta roughly half the time, but that means it does so in all the races. That statistic doesn’t show how many win in races with short fields or how many win at 5-2 odds as opposed to 3-5 odds. If you break it down, the stats reveal that the favorite is not as likely to win in a field of 10 horses as it is in a 6 horse race.

Furthermore, the chalk isn’t as likely to win at 5-2 as it is at 3-5. Yet many people scan the toteboard and see a favorite in a race and go and bet it or use it in exotic betting and expect it to win about one race out of three. That is a recipe for financial disaster. Playing the public choice is a losing proposition over the long haul though you may experience brief times of being ahead.

If you are betting based solely on the odds without any further handicapping, consider the following;

Here are some things to avoid when playing favorites…

1. Don’t play favorites in races with fields of more than 7 horses. As field size increases, your favorite’s chances decrease exponentially

2. Don’t Bottom wheel favorites in exactas. They win roughly a third of their races and finish in the exacta about 50% of the time. That means they actually place only about once out of 6 races.

3. Don’t bet the chalk across the board. While the win bet is a losing proposition place and show are even worse because of the hidden cost of breakage (discussed in other articles I’ve written).

4. Don’t use progressive betting to try to make up for your losses when chalks fail. Some people think that there is a law of averages that if a favorite fails a certain number of times it is bound to win because of the “law of averages.” There is no law of averages and even if there was, who would enforce it?

If you must play the toteboard, then look for value in the pools by doing a little math such as the method in True Handicapping for finding live horses or even the old standby of Z betting, made popular by Dr. Ziemba many years ago.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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By Bill Peterson

Now that we have seen poly tracks installed at many race tracks in the United States and Canada, the betting public seems to have gotten as big a break as the horses who run on them. The poly tracks seem to offer a more cushioned surface for the animals and that is good news. It reduces the strain on their fragile legs and reduces injuries.

Reducing injuries is good news for everyone involved in the industry, not just the horses. While many of us were raised on dirt races run on natural surfaces, and tradition notwithstanding, I think most of us would like to see more tracks install a synthetic surface.

Handicapping horse races on the man made surfaces also seems to eliminate the problem of tracks, though a wet poly track really doesn’t seem to play exactly like a dry one. Now here is a question for you handicappers who spend hours handicapping races. How many times have you spent a lot of time deciphering a race that was to be run on the grass, only to have it switched to the dirt track because of rain?

Many people really love to watch the animals run on grass, it seems so natural and less stressful than pounding along on a hard dirt surface, but when the grass gets too wet and slippery, the races are shifted to the dirt track which may be muddy, unless it’s a synthetic surface, of course.

If they can make a synthetic dirt surface and race on it in all kinds of weather, is there an equivalent for turf races? Though it may not be the real thing, if it was safer for the horses and jockeys and kept the races on the same track for us handicappers, it would be a good thing.

As horse racing continues to evolve and change with the times, it seems that it is only a matter of time before synthetic turf replaces real grass.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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