The Three Most Important Factors in Horse Racing Handicapping Winners
Posted by: willie in Horse Racing Handicapping, Where's Willie, horse racing betting, horse racing systems, horseracingEach person must find his or her own way to handicap races and then make a decision as to which horses offer the best value on the odds board. Some people prefer exotic bets while others stick to straight bets like win, place, and show. No one can tell you which bet type is best for you. The truth may be that you become a situational bettor looking for value in more than one pool.
But whatever method you choose for picking your bets, one thing holds true. Determining which horses have the best chance of hitting the winner’s circle will depend upon three top factors. There is just no getting around the big three.
Number one is speed. “Fast horses win races and royal flushes beat aces,” a line in a popular John Pryne song is true. Looking at the speed figures for the last three races in a horse’s career and comparing those figures to the other horses in the race will give you a pretty good idea of how well the horse will fare. Naturally the horse with the highest figures doesn’t always win, but the horse with the lowest figures seldom wins. If you are betting to win then you want a horse who figures in the top of the speed figs race.
Number Two is pace. Speed alone does not win races. A horse with high speed figures can get beaten if it locks up in a killer speed duel on the front end while a more even runner sets a realistic pace behind the front runners and picks up the pieces coming down the stretch. Another situation that can stop a speedy type is track condition and type. For instance, a horse that likes a hard fast track gets on a deep track that is still listed as fast. The horse is bet according to its performances on a hard and fast track and runs out of gas coming down the stretch. The problem was that it tired badly because it was racing on a deep surface that favored a plodder.
Number three is connections. I want to see a top jockey on my horse or one who is consistent and though he or she may not be at the top of the win stats, can still win races with a good horse beneath him or her. I also want a good trainer who has experience at that track and has shown he or she can win at that level of competition. A lousy or inexperienced trainer can lose races by messing around with a horse when the horse is fine and ready to win. The smart trainers get them ready and then let them win. The other trainers try to make them win. There is a big difference.
So those are the three most important factors in handicapping races. No matter what your style or what pools you choose to play, you will have to master those three areas and understand them to make money at handicapping. The next important consideration is inside information such as you find in True Handicapping. Put the top factors together with inside information and your ROI will soar.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to What’s a Willie and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Bill’s handicapping store.
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