Horse Racing Handicapping Beating False Favorites With Exotic Betting
Posted by: willie in Horse Racing Handicapping, Where's Willie, horse racing betting, horse racing systems, horseracingHorse Racing Handicapping Beating False Favorites With Exotic Betting
By http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson Bill Peterson
A lot of horse racing handicapping is about beating the horse that has the most money bet on it. That means you will spend a lot of time looking for reasons that the public’s choice is a false favorite. When you can isolate one or two horses that are going off at attractive odds and who have a legitimate shot at winning, then betting them to win makes sense as long as the shortest priced horse is suspect. But if you can’t find that situation, but still feel the top choice of the fans is going to tank, you may want to try some exotic betting strategies.
Here is something that worked for me in the Jefferson Cup Stakes, a grade 2 event run as the 9th race at Churchill Downs on June 14th, 2008. The favorite was Old Man Buck going off at 2-1. I didn’t think he was infallible because he was coming back off a layoff and hadn’t done well in that situation in the past. He hadn’t raced since November of 2007. That is a very long layoff for a thoroughbred.
I found four other horses in the field that I thought could beat Old Man Buck, but for the life of me I couldn’t narrow it down more than that. Still, I wanted to bet against him because I thought he would take most of the money in the pools and would come up short. Here is a tip for some of you folks who may be new to horse racing handicapping, to make money at this game you have to be good at finding good bets, not just figuring out what a horse will do in a race. I thought there must be a good bet, but couldn’t find a good win bet, so I turned to one of my favorite exotic betting strategies.
The four horses I liked were #1 Halo Najib, #4 Tizdejavu (who had just posted an impressive win over the Churchill Turf course they were racing on), #5 Golden Yank (a classy horse who had traffic problems and legitimate reasons to come up just a bit short in his last effort), and #7 Bobby Blue Eyes (a promising El Prado gelding who had just won a maiden special event on the turf). A look at the tote board showed that the exactas without the #6 Old Man Buck, were all paying well.
I boxed the four horses in an exacta box since I felt the race was pretty much wide open and two of the four could be an exacta. As I suspected, Old Man Buck was a false favorite and despite a gutsy effort battling down the stretch, he came in third, beaten a half length by Golden Yank behind the four length winner, Tizdejavu. My payoff for the 4-5 exacta was $63 for each $24 invested. It was approximately like catching a winner at 5-2 even though I couldn’t isolate a winner from the four horses I liked to beat Old Man Buck. The key to the whole deal was finding a horse that could be beaten who was taking most of the action and figuring out how to put the contenders together in such a way to make it profitable. My system for exacta betting was the logical choice in that situation.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.
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