Archive for June, 2006
Hello Fellow Thrill Seekers
Sorry it has taken so long to add another post. I have been working on other projects related to my business. I am back on the road, sitting in the parking lot of McDonalds and writing this on my laptop. I am connected to the internet, what a country! I just downloaded the programs from Wheeling and will handicap them later and then go to Hinsdale and play the dogs again.
I hit the tri in one of the two A races at Hinsdale yesterday so we are starting on a good note. it is raining and the track will be off but it effects the dogs less than the horses so I’ll still play them. I wish I could narrow it down to a golden formula for how I handicapped the dog races yesterday so you could all easily learn to pick winners, but it doesn’t work that way. I had to look at each entry in the races, compare them to each other dog in the race and then choose two key dogs who I thought had a better chance of winning than the other dogs. I then keyed on them as well as boxing them with two other dogs I thought were able to compete on their level. My four dog boxes hit one tri and a small superfecta that was an all as well as having the winners in both races. My magic formula is over twenty years of experience and one other thing.
This is where it gets a little tricky. I use intention and the knowledge of my participation in each race I think about and watch. No I don’t jump out there on the track with the dogs, but my thoughts are there and they are within my thoughts. Many people watch a race and think they are not connected with it, but in my opinion that isn’t the case. I am connected with everything I think of and that includes the race. I thought about the race and how each dog would run and my thoughts went into universal mind where the race took place. Since there is only one mind I was thinking with the same mind that created the whole universe including the dogs and the race. Do you see how my consciousness and thoughts could effect that race? Especially since I was aware of it and awareness makes it more effective. I am not saying that I controlled the race, because I didn’t. But I do think the thoughts of spectators have an effect on an event.
Here is another example. I have noticed that more favorites win on days when there is a big crowd at the track. I used to think that racing secretaries set up easy races to please the crowd and all the recreational players who show up on weekends and holidays. I thought they put one or two really good dogs in an advantageous postion so the crowd of bettors who weren’t very sophisticated could easily spot the dog with the best chance of winning and made it the favorite in the betting pools. But now I am not so sure. The dogs who ran yesterday were the same dogs who ran on Sunday when there was a pretty big crowd. So why did they run differently yesterday than on Sunday? They were the same dogs on the same track running against about the same dogs they faced before, but there was a much smaller crowd yesterday. Now maybe the same percentage of people backed the favorite, but this time there was less intention behind it and so luck or some other forces played a bigger part. Perhaps the trainer who really thought and felt his/her dog had a good chance to win despite how it looked on paper didn’t have much chance since it was one person’s intention against many on Sunday. But yesterday the same person’s intention was against the opinion of a much smaller crowd so it had more of a chance of happening.
No matter what we do in life, we are always living in the universal mind that created us with thought, or the Word as he Bible puts it. Our own thoughts are creative on many levels. So how can there be such a thing as non-participation? Maybe believing we aren’t influencing an event has an effect on the potential of our thought to influence events, but then when the events are occuring and we are caught up in them and lose track of our doubts our thoughts start to work on the event. For instance, I handicap a race and think the seven in the race hasn’t been running well lately and will probably lose. But then the race starts and the seven gets a lucky break and a hole opens up and it shoots out toward the lead. All of a sudden I think to myself, “Wow, that seven could win this race!”
At that moment I nullified the doubt I intended and replaced it with an intention charged with excitement and not tinged with doubt. For a brief moment I believe the seven can win and that thought is instantly picked up by mind. If, as I have noted in other writings on this site, life is a collection of possibilities, then when I handicap a race I see the possiblities and may even create them by thinking them. Each one of those possiblities becomes a potential and then is acted upon by mind. I am not the only one thinking about the race or event, though so many other thoughts are effecting it. That is where belief comes into play. I think belief is the power behind the possiblity that gives it the potential. The more belief, the more potential.
So each event in our lives becomes a possiblity and we can effect them with our thoughts. Never think that something is completely beyond your control or that you are powerless. Thought is the most powerful force in creation and we each have the ability to create thoughts. Whether it is a medical issue or an upcoming elecion or a very personal matter, each thought will have an effect. We may not have complete control over events, but we can effect them. So each one of us must take some responsibility for the events in our lives and world. Just as I was a part of each race I watched yesterday you are a part of the human race and the rat race.
I think it would be fun to get a group of adventurous people together and try to use thought to influence an event that was taking place such as a race or other sporting event. It wouldn’t have to involve betting or money, but it would have to be effected by luck and chance. One person who is doing a similar experiment is Steve Pavlina. I urge you to check out his million dollar experiement at http://www.stevepavlina.com/million-dollar-experiment.htm. I also urge you to read Greg Braden’s books such as, “The Isaiah Effect”.
For more on how everything in the universe is effected by your thoughts read my other pages on who and what we are.
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As if the first two legs of the triple crown weren’t tough enough, the Belmont looks like a race with a lot of possible winners. With that in mind I say go for a price. Here is a post I posted in another forum yesterday and it is how I see the race…
Taking a look at the program for the Belmont and wondering what the weather and track will be like. That could play a big part in the race. Also wondering how big a factor the distance will be.
I look at the dam’s sire and the sire of the horse to try to figure which ones will go the full distance and who will fold like cheap lawn furniture in the stretch.
Right off the bat two horses stand out as distance types, Oh So Awesome and Bluegrass Cat have the edge. I use the brisnet programs that give average winning distances for the sire and dam’s sire and these two seem to have a marked edge in that category. They also both have very good trainers and jockeys which is another plus. Bluegrass Cat has two wins at Belmont and that is reassuring. But neither of them has a great speed figure and Oh So Awesome lacks experience on dirt and here in the states. That could translate into a nice longshot and the added lasix is a plus too.
I’ll be watching the odds on these two and maybe placing some kind of win bet to try to insure my bets in case my exotics tank.
My next horse that has gotten my attention is Bob and John because of his 106 speed fig that almost equals what he will need to win. The fact that he won in NY on a sloppy track is reassuring and he beat Jazil who has similar breeding. I like the connections on Bob and John, too.
There are a lot of horses that could get a piece of it, like Sunriver, High Finance, Deputy Glitters, Hemingway’s Key, but though they have to be considered in the exotics I don’t think they have enough pluses to make them a serious win bet unless the odds are so overwhelming that they offer some good dutching plays.
So for a win bet I like the 9 and smaller bets on 4 and 6
for exactas i like 4,6,9/2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 and then the same numbers reversed.
For a tri key I like 6,9/2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11/2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11
I know this is a lot of combinations but it is a pretty wide open race. I think Bluegrass Cat may get out well along with Deputy Glitters and if he is rated well enough will get the win when Deputy Glitters folds up. On the other hand I look for a big run from Oh So Awesome who has run at Belmont and also run on an off track. I would say its debut race was just a prep for this outing and therefore the horse wasn’t pushed. Look for a big run today.
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As if the first two legs of the triple crown weren’t tough enough, the Belmont looks like a race with a lot of possible winners. With that in mind I say go for a price. Here is a post I posted in another forum yesterday and it is how I see the race…
Taking a look at the program for the Belmont and wondering what the weather and track will be like. That could play a big part in the race. Also wondering how big a factor the distance will be.
I look at the dam’s sire and the sire of the horse to try to figure which ones will go the full distance and who will fold like cheap lawn furniture in the stretch.
Right off the bat two horses stand out as distance types, Oh So Awesome and Bluegrass Cat have the edge. I use the brisnet programs that give average winning distances for the sire and dam’s sire and these two seem to have a marked edge in that category. They also both have very good trainers and jockeys which is another plus. Bluegrass Cat has two wins at Belmont and that is reassuring. But neither of them has a great speed figure and Oh So Awesome lacks experience on dirt and here in the states. That could translate into a nice longshot and the added lasix is a plus too.
I’ll be watching the odds on these two and maybe placing some kind of win bet to try to insure my bets in case my exotics tank.
My next horse that has gotten my attention is Bob and John because of his 106 speed fig that almost equals what he will need to win. The fact that he won in NY on a sloppy track is reassuring and he beat Jazil who has similar breeding. I like the connections on Bob and John, too.
There are a lot of horses that could get a piece of it, like Sunriver, High Finance, Deputy Glitters, Hemingway’s Key, but though they have to be considered in the exotics I don’t think they have enough pluses to make them a serious win bet unless the odds are so overwhelming that they offer some good dutching plays.
So for a win bet I like the 9 and smaller bets on 4 and 6
for exactas i like 4,6,9/2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11 and then the same numbers reversed.
For a tri key I like 6,9/2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11/2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11
I know this is a lot of combinations but it is a pretty wide open race. I think Bluegrass Cat may get out well along with Deputy Glitters and if he is rated well enough will get the win when Deputy Glitters folds up. On the other hand I look for a big run from Oh So Awesome who has run at Belmont and also run on an off track. I would say its debut race was just a prep for this outing and therefore the horse wasn’t pushed. Look for a big run today.
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It was all go at the Hinsdale Greyhound Park yesterday. The guys on the roof working on the satellite dishes kind of screwed things up because I couldn’t see the Seabrook races until the 9th race, but it didn’t keep me from hitting some nice quinellas and winners and tris. The puppy stakes are starting at Seabrook and yesterday was the first day. The thing about handicapping maidens that a lot of people don’t understand is that in some ways maidens are easier to handicap whether in horse or dog racing.You’ll hear people complain that maidens are tough to handicap because they haven’t won yet, but the thing about maidens is, what you see is what you get.
At the major horse tracks favorites win a high percentage of the maiden races. One of the reasons is because maidens develop at different rates so the precocious maidens stand out and though they may go off at low odds, they run pretty true to form. That was the case yesterday and it afforded some beautiful betting opportunities. In each race there were a few dogs who had already won in m and j and had been running against seasoned dogs in c and even b grade races. Using those dogs in exotics with other promising maidens made some nice payoffs. The weather even cooperated by giving us a sunny day for a change.
There were very few people at Hinsdale and it makes you wonder how long they will be able to stay open. Today they have live racing again and that is a plus. Another plus is the dime supers. I love these bets because for just $2.40 a race I can box 4 dogs. I’ve hit several supers each day I have played them. Some were alls but on Monday I hit the 13th and 14th race supers with all of my four dogs.
Today I am playing Hinsdale, Wheeling, Lincoln, and Derby Lane. It is a lot of handicapping, but then again, its what I do. The heavy rains might cause a track bias. I’ve hit some nice payoffs at Lincoln playing heavy dogs on a real sloppy track, but it has to be real bad before weight becomes a factor. At Raynham I’ve hit some nice exotics including supers playing a 1238 box. today might offer such an opportunity.
Tomorrow it is back to Maine and taking care of business there before hitting the road next week.
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Just got back from Hinsdale Race Track and I’m sitting in my motel room (the weather was bad so I’m moteling it tonight rather than camping).
Now I am wondering why things can never stay the same for very long. The deal is, I just get going real good handicapping a dog track hitting exactas and nice winners and the dogs get sick. Why can’t they keep the dogs from getting sick?
The problem is that you can’t always tell when a dog is sick until it runs and then its too late for the poor sods like me who have bet on it. I was doing great at Wheeling playing the top grade races and then all of a sudden started doing lousy. The dogs didn’t seem to be running true to form. The next thing I know a bunch of dogs are scratched because they are sick, so that explains it. So I switch to Palm Beach and I’m doing great and now they seem to be getting sick since there are so many scratches. So today I went back to handicapping Wheeling.
I stick to the better grade races most of the time though I have to admit that playing the dime supers in every race at Hinsdale is a hoot and I hit two of them today playing 4 dog boxes. I played 14 races at $2.40 each and collected $56 so my profit was $56 minus $33.60 or a whopping $22.40!!
Did you ever wonder what a whopping means? I do. What is a whopping? Sounds like something my mother used to threaten me with, “If you don’t settle down and go to sleep in there I’m going to give you a whopping!”
People shouldn’t be able to use words unless they are prepared to explain what the word means. A whopper is a big fish or a hamburger. What does a big fish or hamburger have to do with winning money at the track or getting your butt kicked because you won’t go to sleep?
I played all three AA races at Wheeling today and hit the exacta in each one and the winner as well, but I played two dogs in each race to win and wheeled two dogs in the exactas so I didn’t really make much. On the other hand, in two of the races my two dogs were the exacta so with a little better money management I should improve my R.O.I. But the point is that by playing the better races and being a good handicapper you can hit a lot of winners and exactas. One of the knocks against dog racing is that the horses are easier to handicap but that isn’t true. You just have to stick with the better grade races.
I could give a good lesson here on how to handicap the greyhounds, but quite frankly I don’t want to because that would take money out of my pocket. The pools are so small at the dogs that I can barely make a decent win bet without knocking the odds down so if I get more people betting on the same dogs I’ll really struggle to make a buck.
But you know me and my inquiring mind, I just have to know about this word whopping, so I will give one free lesson to anyone who really can tell me the definition of whopping and the origin of the word. The rest of you will just have to figure out the dog racing biz on your own. It only took me 20 years.
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Got into Hinsdale New Hamspshire yesterday and headed over to Hinsdale Greyhound Park. I have to admit that Hinsdale has always held a special place in my heart because I have many happy memories of going there when my son was young and my sister would go along and we’d sit outside and watch the dog races. Hinsdale is a nice track, a friendly place where families can spend an afternoon watching dogs run with the backdrop of a wooded New Hampshire hillside.
I always got the feeling that Hinsdale didn’t take itself too seriously and just wanted to provide you with a good time. They have struggled to compete with the big fancy tracks that are more conveniently located for the population of Connecticutt and Massachusetts, but with so many tracks that they simulcast they have hung in there. But rest assured, crowding is not a problem and you’ll always find a good seat.
Admittedly, the quality of their dog racing isn’t top grade but it is still fun to watch and the dogs still put on a good show and you can bet on them, so what’s not to like? A lot of puppies get a good start at Hinsdale and some older dogs that are finishing out their racing careers get a chance to compete on a level they can handle and still have fun, because contrary to what some people would have you believe, greyhounds do have fun racing. It is what they do and there is no one whippng them, they run as fast as they want to because they want to run. I love sitting outside at Hinsdale and watching the live races. They also have good eats there that are reasonably priced and the club house offers a nice air conditioned break with big windows and big screens so you don’t miss any of the action.
Now they have blackjack and a poker room. As you know old Willie doesn’t play poker so I won’t comment on it other than to say its there and people were playing at a few tables when i went there. It wasn’t crowded on a thursday afternoon. But there wasn’t a single blackjack table open. I asked about the rules and I think I found one reason why no one was playing. First the good news, blackjack pays 2-1. But you can only double down on a 10 or 11 and the house wins all pushes except a blackjack! Not good. I hope they will change that, but until they do I won’t be sitting at a blackjack table there. I realize the house is going to have the advantage but that is just too much of an edge for me to go up against. You can split any pair but there is no surrender and no insurance.
In their defense this is new for Hinsdale Greyhound Park so maybe they figured they would give themselves a big edge to be cautious, but they need to loosen up a little, in my opinion. If a player just wants to sit down and try to get lucky by all means hit the blackjack tables, but with those rules, you’re in for some tough sledding. I hope they will change those rules soon. Vegas strip rules would be a good start. I’d also like to see a blackjack tournament. That would be a good way to get people involved more in blackjack. Many people are familiar with poker tournaments now and a few blackjack tournaments would introduce the game to some new players as well as giving a real chance to win to some regular blackjack players.
So how did I do playing the dogs yesterday? I got there late after driving for hours including a stop at the Manchester airport. I played two races at Palm Beach, the 12th an A race and the last race, a C race. I hit the quinella in the A race for 35$ and the winner in the last race for $8.40. I’m heading back today for the live racing even though it is raining. Maybe I’ll be able to figure out a track bias. I know I’ll have fun and they are simulcasting Palm Beach and Lincoln so I’ll play the top grade races at those tracks and some of the Hinsdale live races and have a good meal.
One of the special things about today will be that my 8 yr old neice will be seeing greyhouds race for the first time. I know she will like it and like I said, its a family friendly place so we’ll have a good time.
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