Taking a look at the final leg of the triple crown, the Belmont, makes me realize once again why horse racing is so appealing and also so difficult to beat.  Barbaro really did look like a triple crown threat just a few short weeks ago, but now is just a footnote in the history of the triple crown.  Bernardini was another impressive winner who looked like a good bet for the Belmont, but now he isn’t going to race in it.

That leaves us wondering, can Sweetnorthernsaint finally get it done?  I would have to say, no.  I don’t think the saint will win the Belmont.  Of course, I did get hosed in the Derby and though I had the winner and the exacta in the Preakness, the Belmont is a different race and a different kind of race.  I don’t know which horses will be in the Belmont other than Hemingways Key.  On the other hand, that may be all we need to know.  Mr. Belmont, aka Nick Zito, ran the Key in the Preakness and conditioned the horse and sharpened it up.  I am willing to bet he told the jock not to take too much out of the horse.  The race probably didn’t take anything out of the Key and probably seasoned it just enough to make it a seroious bet for the big B. It is now ready to mount a serious challenge in the Belmont and may be peaking at just the right time for Mr. Zito to win what I would say is his favorite race.

I think the Saint may get in there but what kind of strategy will the jockey and trainer use?  Then again, what kind of trouble can the jockey get into?  Sometimes he seems to ride a brilliant race and at others it seems he is a green apprentice who can find a way to get boxed in or lose all hope. To his credit he did get the horse out to the front early in the Preakness.  But it seemed that early pace didn’t help much in the Preakness and with the longer distance early pace may be too much for the horse, then again, Bernardini and Barbaro will not be there.  Perhaps early pace will be just the thing to put the Saint where he needs to be to finally grab a piece of the triple crown.

Good trainers understand timing and form cycles and it seems to me Nick Zito is particularly good at bringing a horse along and having it peak at just the right time for the Belmont.  Can he do it again this year?  Is the horse good enough?  What about the othr trainers who are bringing their horses to the race?  Ahh, the possiblities and this is just one race in a year filled with races and challenges.  Unless I see another horse bred for the distance and in good form with the speed to mount a serious challenge I’ll have to go with the Saint and the Key boxed or perhaps the Key on top of a few of the more promising entrants including the Saint.  We’ll see what the field looks like on race day.

While driving down to Florida I passed through several states that are renumbering their exits.  Maine is doing the same thing.  For years exits were just numbered sequentially.  If you looked at a map and saw that the exit that would take you where you wanted to go was exit 10 and you had just passed exit 9 you knew the next exit was where you should get off the highway.  That seems like a pretty straightforward system to me and as far as I can tell it worked pretty well, too.

But now the states are changing that system and numbering exits according to how many miles up or down the highway they are located.  In Maine the exit that is 167 miles from the New Hampshire border is numbered 167.  That is mighty handy if you want to know where New Hampshire is, but what makes New Hampshire so important that even when I am deep within the beautiful state of Maine I need to know that New Hampshire is just 167 miles away?  Does the highway department in Maine think people are going to suffer from separation anxiety if they don’t know how far New Hampshire is?  What about Canada?  That is a whole country.  Why don’t we number the exits in Maine from Canada?  I hope the Canadians haven’t been offended by this.

I owned some perfectly good atlases that now have the wrong exit numbers on them.  Oh sure the states put a sign under the new exit number that tells the old exit number, but what’s the point?  And how long will it be before they decide to renumber the routes?  Most states are going with the following format… Exit 37 and then below it a yellow sign that reads, Formerly Exit 10.  “Formerly?”  Sounds like the Exit had another life before it became an exit.

Remember the performer known as Prince?  He decided to change his name and for years he was refered to as “the performer formerly known as Prince”.  I don’t know what he changed his name to but he was known by his former name so something tells me his new name and his new career path weren’t big hits, but at least he had his success as the performer formerly known as to fall back on.

I think it would be nice if we named exits and quit numbering them.  Numbers are so cold and impersonal but names are warm and friendly.  If people are concerned that there will be no order to them then perhaps we could start with an “A” name and work our way through the alphabet just like they do with tropical storms.  Why do they name tropical storms if they are only going to turn around and count and number them, for instance, the weather person comes on TV and tells us that hurricane Cathy will be our 3rd Hurricane of the season.  Why not just number storms?  Why not say that this third storm will be the third storm or better yet just say well this is the third storm of the season? But let’s get back to exits, anyway, the first exit could be “Adam” or “Annie”.  It wouldn’t tell you how far away you were from New Hampshire or some other state, but it would certainly sound nicer than Exit 3, formerly Exit 1.

If for some reason the exit’s name didn’t work out we could always rename it.  Exit Helen, formerly known as the Exit Harold (uh-oh don’t even go there).  I don’t care how far New Hampshire or Canada is from where I am.  I don’t dislike them, hell I’ve even dated people from those places, but while I’m in Maine I’d like to concentrate on where I am, you know, stay focused.  Just imagine what would happen if we started naming exits, famous people would want to have exits named after them.  Yes, names definitely sound nicer and friendlier than numbers, but for some reason people feel safer numbering things like exits.

On the other hand, people like to name things that they then turn around and start counting or numbering.  For instance, I’ve been married four times, but for some reason, number two, number three, and number four didn’t like being refered to by their number.  It is the same with children.  People have four kids and name them all but then say things like, “He is my second son.”  Well why didn’t you call him “Number Two”?

When I moved to Maine my address was a rural route number and box number.  Route 3 Box 1133.  But then they put in the 911 service and renumbered and named everything. Now I realize that 911 is an emergency service and they want to make it as easy as possible for the emergency people to find you.  So wouldn’t you think numbers would be the most logical thing to use?  But no, they changed my route number to the name of a street!  Why? Because street  names tell you more than numbers do.  Places should have names and so should exits.  Save the numbers for counting money or children or wives but name places.

I think it’s nice that we live in a country where even Exits can get a fresh start.  America is all about starting something new or starting over again.  As they say, hope springs eternal in the heart of man.  We even get to change our Presidents after four years and choose a new corporate stooge to criticize for the next four years.  I think it would be nice though if we could also refer to the President the way we refer to our exits.  For instance, if we elect a new man or woman and they don’t seem to be working out and are screwing up the country we could always start refering to the president as “The President of the United States, formerly known as the Politician (insert name here).”  It might take a little heat off the new person and remind us that we will get to correct our mistake.  Maybe we could make them wear a yellow sign around their necks that say “formerly known as…” 

Better yet, maybe we should just number Presidents and Hurricanes.   If that doesn’t work out we can always refer to them as “formerly”.  You know, Hurricane 3 formerly known as the Tropical Storm 2 or President 41 formerly known as the 27th Governor of Texas. Thomas Wolfe was wrong, “you can go back.”  Just ask Prince.

When I was younger and started going to coffee shops I wondered how a place that sold mostly doughnuts and coffee could make a lot of money.  When I started going to Dunkin’ Donuts a doughnut was a dime and a coffee around twenty five cents. I thought, “If a doughnut only costs a dime, how much profit can there be in it?”  It seemed the most they could be making on it was a nickel.  It takes a lot of nickels to make a days pay, not to mention paying employees, and all the other costs of doing business. And yet doughnut shops seem to flourish, just like the places that started out selling fifteen cent hamburgers. 

Obviously, I’m no rocket scientist, but being reasonably intelligent it seems I should be able to grasp the concept that makes these places so successful, but I don’t.

I guess the same can be said for the Palm Beach Kennel Club.  I took a break  from the Casino Affiliate Programs Spring Break yesterday (only I could take a break from taking a break) and zipped up to PBK.  As dog tracks go it is nice, but I wouldn’t rave about it. I couldn’t figure out how to get to the downstairs area without first going upstairs.  On top of that the only place I could smoke was outside.  I understand that people who don’t smoke shouldn’t have to put up with my smoke, but I also think that race tracks should supply people who do smoke with a comfortable place indoors with air conditioning.  But then they have this new Florida Clean Air Act that is supposed to protect workers from being exposed to smoke in their work environment.  I understand that, too.  But what about paying people a little extra to work in that environment or hiring people who smoke to work in the smoking section of the track?

Smokers built race tracks and bars and made them successful.  They also built casinos.  A lot of gamblers smoke and will continue to smoke.  We do have rights.  Some people who don’t smoke and are adamant about their rights as a non-smoker get into a huge suv to go home and pour harmful pollutants into the environment while a smoker drives a more efficient vehicle.  Why doesn’t the Florida Clean Air Act make the suv drivers drive smaller cars if they are so concerned about the air and protecting each person?  I have to breathe the air out there, too.  But all of this has nothing to do with what I want to say about the PBK.

They were only simulcasting two dog tracks and offering 8 horse tracks and Jai Alai.  In todays world of simulcasting that is pitiful.  Go to tiny little Hinsdale tucked away in a corner of New Hampshire and they have more greyhound tracks than you can shake a stick at. They also offer smokers a place to smoke indoors.  And yet Hinsdale struggles to survive and the Palm Beach Kennel Club flourishes, go figure.  I guess it’s all about location.  If you could pick up Hinsdale and drop it in sunny Florida in Palm Beach County with all its tracks and a place for a smoker to sit comfortably indoors the punters in Florida would be dancing in the streets.  But Hinsdale isn’t in Florida, it’s in NH.  It is the location that makes the difference, or is it?  Isn’t location sort of like an accident of birth?

For instance, one person is born with a billionaire daddy who weasels his way into the CIA and other top government positions so he can go over to the middle east and make a lot of deals and use his influence to get control of oil.  What he can’t get by wheeling and dealing he tries to get by waging war.  His son takes up the job when daddy no longer is president and he continues the war to control the world’s second largest oil field.  Must be nice to be that son, huh?  I think it was Molly Ivens who said he was born on third and thinks he hit a homer.  It really doesn’t matter what he thinks or if he thinks, because he is where he is and the rest of us are where we are.  Just like Hinsdale and PBK.

Speaking of the PBK, did I mention I went there yesterday?  Oh that’s right, I did.  Well anyway I played the 12th race because it was an A race and hit the tri and exacta.  It wasn’t hard to handicap because there were four stand out dogs.  I keyed on the 5 and 7.  The 7 was KNK Iowakaty, a dog who recently beat Ozzie the Man.  She won and the 7 2 5 tri paid almost $70 for a one dollar ticket and the exacta was a generous $48.  She paid $9 to win and that was like finding money in the streets.

PBK was okay but if I have the choice again I’ll go to Hollywood Dog Track.  Maybe I’ll be able to get a cafe con leche there. 

Well Gee,

What a trip.  First the meeting is a no show and then the boat leaves early and I am talking to someone who is on the boat telling him I’ll meet him at the hotel and he is telling me the boat is getting ready to shove off and to rush over.  yeah right!  Apparently they sent me the time the boat was leaving the dock, but it sounded like I was supposed to meet them at the hotel at that time.  I didn’t bother to rush down there in a cab.  I was tired and decided to rest up and give it hell today.

Giving it Hell today will consist of getting my ass out to the Palm Beach Kennel Club and having a cafe con leche and smoking a good cigar.  I’ve been working too much lately and it is tme for the gambling adventures to begin.  Tomorrow I head back north.  I plan on hitting more tracks and I will check in along the way fellow Players.

I’ve been to a lot of Florida tracks but never made it over to PBK.  I have enjoyed the races that they have, seems to be quality dogs, but I do better with AA races than I do with A’s.  It seems that extra bit of separation between the good dogs and the great dogs makes it easier for me to handicap them.

Well old Gambling Willie hit the exacta and the winner of the Preakness.  It was sad to see Barbaro get hurt but that is horse racing and that is why I used him in my exacta boxes but played the other good horses too, just in case.  I boxed the 5-6-7-8.  That high speed figure in the Withers and that excellent breeding made Bernardini a contender in my opinion.  I expected a good run from Sweetnorthernsaint, too, but then there is always the Desourmeax factor.  I think Kent did as good as he could with the horse in this race and the horse just didn’t have as much as Bernardini.  The thing a lot of good horse players probably got out of this race was sly old Mr. Zito was prepping Hemingway’s key for the Belmont.  Nick loves that race and being a NY boy likes to impress the home crowd and the world.  Watch for a big race from Hemingway’s Key in the Belmont.

So where is Willie now? 

I’m in Miami staying at the Days Inn on the boardwalk.  Just walked over to the Palms for a meeting that didn’t happen.  Had a lousy margarhitta (how do you spell that?) that cost 12.50  Sheesh that,s 6 win bets!  Tonight I am going on a cruise.  Hope they serve food I am some hungry.  I’ll write more tomorrow when I am more in the mood.  I drove 5 and a half hours to get here today and so far I’ve learned that english has become a second language in southern Florida.   Hmm I could really rant about that but enough people have already beat me to it.

The boardwalk and beaches are beautiful.  It is sunny and breezy.  Life is good.

I was a card counter and worked in Atlantic City and Foxwoods.  I can’t say I was real successful at it because I’m just not that patient.  I could make money, but man sitting there for hours waiting for the right moment and then only eeking out a small profit margin over the casino, just didn’t work for me.  I started looking for other ways to make money at blackjack and worked on it for many hours.  I never had a blackjack simulator, I’m not even sure this could be tested with one, but if it could that would be interesting.  I’d like to know if anyone else works this way.  It is based on mini-streaks.

There are two low cards for every face card in the deck, for instance, 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 are the low cards and 10,J,Q,K  are the face cards.  Because of their power Aces must be considered  separately (in my opinion).  There are 12 cards for every ace in the deck; all the low cards and all the face cards.  It is kind of hard to keep track of how many aces have gone by as opposed to how many cards have been played overall, if you are using this method.  When I was seriously counting cards I knew how many aces went by, but it is a lot of work.  So  when I started “casual counting” I only guessed at the ace count, but kept track of the lows and highs by simply scanning the table and pairing low cards and then canceling them with a high card. I went from hand to hand and paired low cards then looked for a high card to cancel the pair out.  If the person sitting beside me had 7-3-10 it canceled out.  If the next person had 2-3-4-J then it was “light” one.  But if the next person had Q-K then that canceled the light one out and became heavy one.  I did this right around the table and got quite fast at it.

I waited for an advantage to present itself after two hands.  That is, if there was an abundance of low cards on the table compared to the number of high cards for two consecutive hands I figured the time was right to increase my bet and refered to the deck as “heavy” meaning there was a higher ratio of high cards to low cards than usual.  I’d usually increase my bet by 50% to 100% over what I had been betting.  So if I had been playing for table minimums of $25 per hand, I’d increase it to $40-$50 when the deck was heavy.  Sometimes I would lose the hand but the deck would remain heavy because a higher ratio of low cards had come out on that hand.  Then I would increase my bet again, this time to $75.  I had some profitable sessions doing this and was ahead at it, but I realize it was unscientific and merely anecdotal.  When the deck became “light” having a higher ratio of low cards to high cards than normal, I’d decrease my bets and stick to the minimum bet allowed sometimes even sitting out a hand.

One of the reasons I did it was because it got so nasty in Atlantic City when they realized you were counting cards.  They’d start putting the cut card really low in the shoe and even tried some other nasty things to get rid of me.  I got tired of the fight and decided to try this method so I wouldn’t be so easy to spot as a counter.

I plan on using this method when we hit the casinos and wonder if any one out there has a comment about it.