Gambling Willie’s Horse Racing and Betting Blog

Horse Racing Handicapping Tips For Horses Coming Off a Layoff
By http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson   Bill Peterson

Here are a few tips for deciding whether to bet on horses coming back from a layoff. When they have been rested and come back to racing some animals respond quickly, while others need some time and conditioning to reach peak form.

Handicapping those runners that are returning to racing after more than 30 days requires some research. The first thing that you should do is to look through its past performances and establish two things if possible.

First, can you see a reason why the horse stopped racing? Sometimes a sudden decline in form is a clue that the racer injured itself or had a physical problem. If it was doing fine then threw in a clunker or two, maybe there was a problem that needed rest and attention. If you see an equipment change, like the addition of lasix or front wraps, it could mean that there was bleeding or lameness that needed treating.

The addition of new equipment or drugs in today’s race, preceded by a good workout in the last week, may signal that the trainer has successfully treated the problem and his or her entry is ready to race. Even if you see no equipment changes, it may be something as simple as the horse being tired or temporarily sick. It does happen and a good workout may signal that all is once again okay.

The second situation to look for in the past performances is if the runner ever had a significant layoff in the past and how it did when it returned. For instance, if it has been 60 days since it raced and a look through the past performances indicates that it happened before and it returned to win, then it may be a good bet. But on the other hand, if it needed a few races to get back in condition, perhaps you should pass it and bet on another horse, depending upon the odds and its chances of winning.

If you are not sure how the horse will do or why it needed a layoff, perhaps it is a race to pass. The number one reason gamblers lose on racing is because they fail to get a good answer to a question that needs to be answered in order to make wise decisions. If you don’t have an opinion about each runner in a race then you probably shouldn’t be risking money on it.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to [http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html]http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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How to Be Lucky When Gambling in a Casino, Poker Game, Lottery Or Horse Racing Using Proven Methods
By http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson Bill Peterson

Luck is the most important part of gambling, as anyone who has spent any time in a casino, at the race track betting on horse racing, playing the lottery, poker, blackjack or any game of chance can tell you. Some people seem to be luckier than others and demonstrate the truth behind the old saying, “I’d rather be lucky than good.” How true that is. Good luck will get you through almost anything and no matter how deep you may appear to be in the soup, you may come out smelling like a rose if you have good fortune.

Of course, most people believe that it is impossible to change destiny or fortune so it is impossible to control your luck, but that may not actually be the case. Science has demonstrated that there are times when people win more and lose less. In his book, “The Conscious Universe,” Professor Dean Radin analyzed the results of four years of data from casinos. He was looking for a correlation between the phases of the moon, strength of the Earth’s geomagnetic fields, and casino payout percentages. During the full moon the Earth’s geomagnetic field is usually at its weakest. Professor Radin believes there may be some connection between the Earth’s magnetic fields, the moon, human psychic ability, and gambling.

One scientific study that Prof. Radin mentions in his book did demonstrate that people seem to be more psychic during the full moon, then their abilities seem to wane during the quarter moons and increase again during the new moon. This fluctuation in psychic ability seems to also follow luck because four years of casino data showed that payouts increased at the time of the full moon and decreased at other times for most casino games studied. Perhaps our intuition or psychic ability really does help us to win, whether it is picking the slot machine that is about to pay out, or knowing whether to hit a 13 at the blackjack table, or which horse will win the race. Poker players can certainly use intuition to their benefit.

The conclusion he reached was that if gamblers avoided the casinos during the quarter moons and gambled around the time of the full moon, they would decrease their losses or even win a profit. Of course, these are just generalizations and should not be considered an inducement to gamble, but they show promise for really understanding how to be lucky.

Lotteries showed a different trend. It appears that Pick 3 style lotteries pay out more during the times of the quarter moons and lower payouts during the full moon. Fluctuations in the magnetic fields of the earth, once again, seemed to have an effect. While the phase of the moon or strength of the earth’s fields will not guarantee you a winner, it may be a good idea to start making your winning and losing days on a calendar and watch where they fall according to the moon’s phases.

Other studies have shown that when people have a positive attitude and expect to win, they actually do win more often. That makes sense, doesn’t it? If you expect to win you may make choices that will have a positive effect. For instance, if you are in a casino and looking for a blackjack table and expect to lose, you won’t be too fussy about which table you sit at. But if you expect to win you may take more time selecting the table and finding one where the gamblers seem to be happier and smiling, meaning they are winning and the table is paying out better. You may not do it consciously, but you could do this and other things subconsciously just because you have a winning attitude and expect to win. We make a lot of choices when gambling whether we are at the race track betting on horse racing or choosing a place or game in a casino or even selecting lottery numbers.

So my advice to you is that you keep track of your winning and losing days and the phases of the moon. Also, keep a positive attitude. If you expect to win, perhaps it is a good day to take a chance, but if you expect to lose or just don’t feel lucky, maybe it would be better to save your money until you feel the earth’s fields, moon, or just plain old luck are working for you.

Bill Peterson has been a professional horse player and card player for years. His innovative techniques were developed by thinking outside the box. In his own words, the result of “A life well wasted.” Bill has been teaching the basics of gambling for years and you can read about Bill’s Power Point Poker at http://www.powerpointpoker.com

To see all of Bill’s horseracing handicapping methods at http://williewins.homestead.com , The Handicapping Store. “No one can make you a winner but learning the basics and a few little known secrets and techniques can advance you closer to your dream of making a profit at your favorite game. Use my methods and customize them to suit your own style and you will be ahead of 99% of the crowd.”

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Horse Racing Handicapping’s Greatest Challenge - Understanding the Mind of a Horse
By  http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson     Bill Peterson

What many horse racing handicappers don’t understand is that in the process of trying to decipher the possible outcome of a race they are also trying to understand what a horse or horses may do or think. Having owned race horses I can tell you that is no easy trick. After many years around horses, both the racing kind and others, I can tell you I still don’t understand them most of the time. Many people have commented about how much easier life would be if they could just talk to us.

If they could talk to us maybe the first thing that horses would do is tell us that they want to get paid for what they do, so maybe it isn’t such a bad idea that they can’t speak. On the other hand, as in the case of the poor performance of Big Brown in The Belmont, it would certainly be a relief for the trainer, jockey, and owner to hear the colt’s side of the story and why he didn’t seem to have it. One thing I can tell you about horses is that they aren’t rational thinkers or rocket scientists by human standards. But once they learn something, including bad or dangerous habits, it is almost impossible to “un-learn” them.

I once owned a little filly named “Bomb Strike,” who was a pretty good trotting horse. I was harness racing at the time and I bought her on the advice of my trainer who thought he could improve her with some TLC. What I didn’t know was that Bomb Strike had developed the dangerous habit of bolting through doorways, sideways. Some time in her life before I owned her she had accidentally turned while she was passing through a doorway and had suffered a nasty gouge on her hip. After that unpleasant incident she was terrified of doorways including her stall gate even though the wound was treated and healed just fine.

The injury wasn’t racing related and could have happened to any horse. As most horse owners will tell you, though they are large and strong, horses often hurt themselves in the barn or pasture, often because they are spooked by something as simple as a shadow or blowing leaf. Just like some people I know, a horse can often be his or her own worst enemy.

Bomb Strike is a little horse, but even a little horse can be dangerous if she bolts while you are leading her through a barn. What made the problem even worse was that she would sometimes irrationally try to bolt through a doorway other than the one you were trying to lead her through. As she went through any door she would almost always turn and bang herself on the door frame.

We tried many ways to help her to overcome her fear and also padded as many doorways as we could and tried to avoid doorways. But in racing you eventually have to lead your horse through some doorways. Sometimes she would stand quivering in front of a door and then bolt through it and other times she would see an open doorway and rush to it before I was prepared for her move.

She never overcame her fear so the decision was made to let her live on a farm and do what all good filly’s eventually want to do, she became a mother and now spends her days at pasture. It seemed the best decision for her own welfare though she certainly had many good races left in her and my trainer was willing to try to keep working with her. She loved to race and was very aggressive on the track despite her small stature, but on the farm she is quiet and peaceful, enjoying her foal and the wide open spaces.

If I could have talked to her I could have explained that she was hurting herself, but I couldn’t make her understand that and she couldn’t tell me why she kept making the same mistake. She always did her best for me, so I did what I thought was best for her. I just let her be a horse in a natural setting where she was happy.

Big Brown couldn’t tell us why he ran poorly in The Belmont and horse racing handicapping will continue to be shrouded in mystery as long as horses can’t talk. On the other hand, the communication problems add to the challenge and mystery whether you are raising horses or trying to predict their next race performance. Learning to watch and try to understand them is part of the job and challenge of good horsemanship.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html  http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill’s handicapping store.

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A Few Horse Racing Handicapping Tips for Horses Coming Back From a Layoff
By  http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson   Bill Peterson

One thing that you will be constantly running into when you are horse racing handicapping is horses who have had a layoff of 30 days or more.  Of course the big question is, “How will the horse do after being rested?”  There are some horses who win first time out while others need to be raced back into condition.  The longer the layoff, the more likely the horse will need a race or two to get back into racing shape.

Form is such a fleeting thing in horses that any significant layoff means that whatever form the horse had is no longer relevant.  I generally don’t mind seeing a 30-40 day layoff but when I see more than that then I want to see something to indicate that the horse is ready.

Read the rest of this entry »

An Impressive Filly Makes a Late Run to Win the French Oaks

By http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson  Bill Peterson

Zarkava, a filly owned by the Aga Khan, posted a 3 length win in the prestigious Prix de Diane (Fr. - Gr. 1) at Chantilly beating the filly Gagnoa a Group 3 winner, under the skillful riding of jockey Christophe Soumillon. Zarkava is now unbeaten in five career races and may be headed for the Arc de Triomphe (Fr.-Gr.1) at Longchamps in October according to trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre.

Though racing near the back of the pack to the head of the stretch, the filly launched her bid up the center of the track showing a good burst of speed and tremendous class. She won the 2,100 meter event going away despite a good run by the Sadler’s Wells filly Gagnoa who was going well, but couldn’t match the effort of Zarkava.

Zarkava so impressed the Aga Khan that he agreed with the trainer that she may be headed for the Arc de’ Triomphe adding, “She is the best filly I’ve ever owned and she has a marvelous pedigree going back to the family’s outstanding racemare Petite Etoille.” That is high praise coming from a man who has owned so many beautiful champions over the years.

Zarkava was bred in Ireland out of the unraced Kahyasi mare Zarkhasa.

It comes as no surprise that this potent jockey-trainer-owner combination should win the French Oaks in such an impressive fashion. Soumillon previously won the Classic aboard Lattice in 2004. The Aga Khan and trainer Royer-Dupre have won the French Oaks five times. With those combinations and an unbeaten filly, one wonders just how far this team will go and we may have to wait until October to find out when the Arc de’ Triomphe is run.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Handicapping Beating False Favorites With Exotic Betting
By http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson  Bill Peterson

A lot of horse racing handicapping is about beating the horse that has the most money bet on it. That means you will spend a lot of time looking for reasons that the public’s choice is a false favorite. When you can isolate one or two horses that are going off at attractive odds and who have a legitimate shot at winning, then betting them to win makes sense as long as the shortest priced horse is suspect. But if you can’t find that situation, but still feel the top choice of the fans is going to tank, you may want to try some exotic betting strategies.

Here is something that worked for me in the Jefferson Cup Stakes, a grade 2 event run as the 9th race at Churchill Downs on June 14th, 2008. The favorite was Old Man Buck going off at 2-1. I didn’t think he was infallible because he was coming back off a layoff and hadn’t done well in that situation in the past. He hadn’t raced since November of 2007. That is a very long layoff for a thoroughbred. Read the rest of this entry »

Horse Racing Tip, Watch Upcoming Sires For Betting Opportunities
By  http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson Bill Peterson

Here’s a horse racing tip that requires very little work but can result in some nice payoffs. One way to find some nice winners at the race track is to follow young sires. Horse racing has many sires, like the late Silver Hawk who have produced many fine foals, but one of the problems with following the top sires and their young runners is that the crowd also follows them. It is hard to get good odds on the foals of top sires.

By following the racing news you’ll hear about the foals of sires who haven’t made a name for themselves. The tip is to follow any starters from sires who start producing winners before the crowd understands that another great sire has arrived on the scene. Pay particular interest to how the foals win as it may give a clue to future angles for good betting opportunities.

For instance, Candy Ride, the Argentinean champion and Pacific Classic winner is now standing at stud and had his first winner, El Brujo who won at first asking at Woodbine in a 4 1/2 furlong maiden event. This indicates several things that may be good to know. For one thing, El Brujo was a 2 year old first time starter. If Candy Ride’s future foals inherit the precocious trait you may be able to catch some first time starters at a good price before the public gets wise. Also, El Brujo won at the short distance of just 4 1/2 furlongs. He didn’t need a long race to get going and demonstrated some early speed, another very important factor.

Read El Brujo’s lines for that race at Woodbine on June 8th and watch the next few winners from Candy Ride. Don’t wait until everyone knows that Candy Ride’s get can win at first asking at a short distance at the age of 2. A look at El Brujo’s lines show he broke from the inside and showed good early speed, was third at the 1/4 and closed on the favorite to win by a head. That is an impressive feat for a young horse and he rewarded his backers with 7-1 odds.

Obviously, every first time starter out of Candy Ride won’t win first out, but how many more will and at those nice odds? So take a tip from an old horseplayer and start watching those studs whose foals are just starting to race and win. Learn what kind of runners they produce and cash some nice tickets before everyone in horse racing is on to them, because just as in horse racing, in horse racing handicapping, the winners are always ahead of the crowd.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html Bill’s handicapping store.

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Winning and Losing Streaks in Horse Racing Handicapping and Betting
By http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson      Bill Peterson

Winning and losing streaks are a part of the business of betting on horse races. If you can’t handle long streaks of good and bad fortune, then you should definitely not try to be a professional handicapper. If you have a good system and know how to work it, then you can succeed at horse racing handicapping, but it will still be hard.

I’ve known a lot of horseplayers in my time and never knew one yet who didn’t go through some serious ups and downs, myself included. In 1987 I was playing Aqueduct using a system I had devised during the winter. It was based on the morning line odds of the starters, the jockey and trainer percentages and a few other basics. Though it was an incredibly simple system I tried it on paper for a three week trial and it showed a good profit.

I started making $100 win bets every day and started packing away a nice profit. I had 19 winners in a row. They were all very short priced horses, but obviously with 19 winners in a row I was way ahead of the game. Then the Southern New York racing moved to Belmont Park. I thought of laying off but after giving it some thought I decided to continue, “After all,” I thought, “It’s still New York, same horses and connections, how could it be that much different?”

My question was soon answered. I started losing and another streak began, a losing streak. Though I’d had 19 winners, they had been short priced and my bankroll was bigger than when I’d started, but not big enough to withstand the losing streak I was in. I learned several things.

First of all, it is very difficult to make a living off short priced horses, no mater how good you are. That is why I say this over and over again, don’t take anything at less than 2-1 odds. Secondly, there is a difference between racing at Aqueduct and racing at Belmont. Third, always test things on paper first and test them at the track you plan on playing. Later I also learned that things often work on paper but fail to work in real life. A final bit I would like to add, while we’re talking about streaks, is that even when something works on paper and then works for a while, it can stop working.

Now you’re hearing this from a man who has played horse systems for many years, so please pay attention because if you want to make it in this game here is a very important truth of horse racing handicapping, nothing works all the time and no system works all the time. You have to know when to get in and get out. Winning and losing are “streaky.” Like everything else in life, you will have your good times when it seems you can’t lose and times when it seems you’re snake bit and can’t win. That is why you put aside money for those losing streaks and savor every moment that you win.

The last thing I would like to say is that for me, anyway, it is all worth it, but there have been some very frustrating times when I had to wonder about that. That is why every time I cash a ticket I say, “Thank You.” The race track totes think I am being polite, and I am, but I am also thanking fate, luck, or the racing gods, whatever you want to call it, for letting me have the joy of winning.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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Pick 3 Horse Racing Tips and Betting Strategy
By http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson   Bill Peterson

While I am often heard warning my fellow horse racing handicappers to avoid low priced runners (any horse going off at less than 2-1 odds) there is a situation when I feel it is a good horse betting strategy to wager on a horse going off at short odds. Horse racing tips may leave you cold, but this is not a tip on a specific horse but rather a situation to look for when playing the pick 3.

As I am sure you know, the pick 3 is an exotic bet that requires picking the winner of three consecutive races. Here is a situation I look for when I find a horse going off at a short price that I have spent some time handicapping and want to make a profit for the time I’ve invested handicapping the race. If you locate a horse that looks like it has a better than average chance of winning a race, but is going off at low odds, try to play it as one leg in a pick 3.

The ideal conditions are to have a horse that lays over the field in one race and then two very contentious races that make up the rest of the bet. A typical situation might be your short priced favorite in the first race. In the next race, there are 6 starters and each seems to have a chance to win. In the final leg of the pick 3 there are 8 runners, but only four seem to have legitimate chance to win.

Your bet would look like this…

in the first leg you key on the favorite whom you like to win

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In the second leg you wheel all six horses

1/all/

and in the final leg you key on the four horses that you think are contenders

1/all/1234

The bet will cost you $48 based on a $2 pick 3 bet and will cover 24 possible combinations. The fact that you have some long priced horses in your bet will provide a nice payoff if the favorite should happen to falter in either leg of the bet and that is likely to happen.

Of course, there are no sure things in life, but keying on a horse that lays over the field and using this betting strategy allows you to take advantage of an opportunity that might have been missed if you only place win bets and limit your bets to horses starting at 2-1 or better. This simple system has worked well for me as long as I make sure my horse that I single on is a rock solid bet.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill’s handicapping store.

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The purpose of this post is to show that you can win money at the horse races betting trifectas for profit if you are willing to take a chance. The trifecta is still one of the most popular exotic bets in horse races and if played correctly can show a profit. The biggest obstacle to winning trifectas is the cost to play all the horses that can slip into the trifecta. Many people are good at seeing who the top two or three contenders are in the race. The problem is, the top three contenders are rarely the three horses who complete the trifecta.If the top three contenders were the tri it wouldn’t pay much anyway. The fact that some rather long priced horses always seem to get into the tri is what makes it appealing. So what is the answer?
Should you wheel a contender on top and hope that two longs shots come in second and third? Sometimes that is a valid play, but can be risky and expensive.